Hitting emissions targets with (statistical) confidence in multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes

A means of assessing, monitoring and controlling aggregate emissions from multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes is proposed. The approach allows contributions from different instruments with different forms of emissions targets to be integrated. Where Emissions Trading Schemes are helping meet specific national targets, the approach allows the entry requirements of new participants to be calculated and set at a level that will achieve these targets. The approach is multi-levelled, and may be extended downwards to support pooling of participants within instruments, or upwards to embed Emissions Trading Schemes within a wider suite of policies and measures with hard and soft targets. Aggregate emissions from each instrument are treated stochastically. Emissions from the scheme as a whole are then the joint probability distribution formed by integrating the emissions from its instruments. Because a Bayesian approach is adopted, qualitative and semi-qualitative data from expert opinion can be used where quantitative data is not currently available, or is incomplete. This approach helps government retain sufficient control over emissions trading scheme targets to allow them to meet their emissions reduction obligations, while minimising the need for retrospectively adjusting existing participants’ conditions of entry. This maintains participant confidence, while providing the necessary policy levers for good governance.

Can we have confidence in generic structures?

The system dynamics concept of `generic structure' is dividable into three sub-types. This paper analyses the validity of these three, using both practical and theoretical perspectives. Firstly, a new set of measures is developed for generating validity-`confidence'-amongst a group using generic structures in a practical modelling situation. It is concluded that different confidence criteria are implicitly employed; there is an argument for trading-off model precision and analytical quality for simplicity and ease of use and future research is needed to combine these `process' and `content' aspects of confidence. From a theoretical stance it is shown that with two of the sub-types a scientific notion of confidence is achievable whereas the third (`archetypes') involves merely metaphorical thinking. It is concluded that the theoretical status of archetypes requires further development, whilst ensuring that its benefits are retained.

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.

Donepezil for the symptomatic treatment of patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials

Background: The objective was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) compared with placebo in alleviating manifestations of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). Method: A systematic review of individual patient data from Phase II and III double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled studies of up to 24 weeks and completed by 20 December 1999. The main outcome measures were the ADAS-cog, the CIBIC-plus, and reports of adverse events. Results: A total of 2376 patients from ten trials were randomised to either donepezil 5 mg/day (n = 821), 10 mg/day (n = 662) or placebo (n = 893). Cognitive performance was better in patients receiving donepezil than in patients receiving placebo. At 12 weeks the differences in ADAS-cog scores were 5 mg/day-placebo: - 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI), - 2.6 to - 1.6; p < 0.001], 10 mg/day-placebo: - 2.5 ( - 3.1 to - 2.0; p < 0.001). The corresponding results at 24 weeks were - 2.0 ( - 2.7 to - 1.3; p < 0.001) and - 3.1 ( - 3.9 to - 2.4; p < 0.001). The difference between the 5 and 10 mg/day doses was significant at 24 weeks (p = 0.005). The odds ratios (OR) of improvement on the CIBIC-plus at 12 weeks were: 5 mg/day-placebo 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1; p < 0.001), 10 mg/day-placebo 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p < 0.001). The corresponding values at 24 weeks were 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p = 0.001) and 2.1 (1.6 to 2.8; p < 0.001). Donepezil was well tolerated; adverse events were cholinergic in nature and generally of mild severity and brief in duration. Conclusion: Donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) provides meaningful benefits in alleviating deficits in cognitive and clinician-rated global function in AD patients relative to placebo. Increased improvements in cognition were indicated for the higher dose. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally Occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting Nine European countries. Subjects 7148 cases Of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic incite (Bq/m(3)) Of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in tire control group was 97 Bq/m(3), with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m(3). For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m(3). The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in measured radon (P = 0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in usual radon-that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P=0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m(3). The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m(3) would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.