Applications of behavioural economics to tax evasion

The paper reviews recent models that have applied the techniques of behavioural economics to the analysis of the tax compliance choice of an individual taxpayer. The construction of these models is motivated by the failure of the Yitzhaki version of the Allingham–Sandmo model to predict correctly the proportion of taxpayers who will evade and the effect of an increase in the tax rate upon the chosen level of evasion. Recent approaches have applied non-expected utility theory to the compliance decision and have addressed social interaction. The models we describe are able to match the observed extent of evasion and correctly predict the tax effect but do not have the parsimony or precision of the Yitzhaki model.

Sobre la toma de decisiones economicas bajo incertidumbre

In this article we review the evolution of economic theory on decision making under uncertainty. After a brief reference to Expected Utility Theory, we refer to behavioural paradoxes, forcing the theorists to adopt less restrictive approaches, allowing us to explain a broader spectrum of phenomena. The complexity entailed in the new theories requires a multidimensional description of human attitudes towards risk. Nevertheless, measurement of this attitudes has not followed the desired path, with most elicitation methods remaining uni-dimensional.

The expected performance of single nucleotide polymorphism loci in paternity testing

We discuss the utility of single nucleotide polymorphism loci for full trio and mother-unavailable paternity testing cases, in the presence of population substructure and relatedness of putative and actual fathers. We focus primarily on the expected number of loci required to gain specified probabilities of mismatches, and report the expected proportion of paternity indices greater than three threshold values for these loci. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The conditional performance of UK property funds

The evaluation of investment fund performance has been one of the main developments of modern portfolio theory. Most studies employ the technique developed by Jensen (1968) that compares a particular fund's returns to a benchmark portfolio of equal risk. However, the standard measures of fund manager performance are known to suffer from a number of problems in practice. In particular previous studies implicitly assume that the risk level of the portfolio is stationary through the evaluation period. That is unconditional measures of performance do not account for the fact that risk and expected returns may vary with the state of the economy. Therefore many of the problems encountered in previous performance studies reflect the inability of traditional measures to handle the dynamic behaviour of returns. As a consequence Ferson and Schadt (1996) suggest an approach to performance evaluation called conditional performance evaluation which is designed to address this problem. This paper utilises such a conditional measure of performance on a sample of 27 UK property funds, over the period 1987-1998. The results of which suggest that once the time varying nature of the funds beta is corrected for, by the addition of the market indicators, the average fund performance show an improvement over that of the traditional methods of analysis.

Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

The representation of conditional expectations of non-Gaussian noise

For Wiener spaces conditional expectations and $L^{2}$-martingales w.r.t. the natural filtration have a natural representation in terms of chaos expansion. In this note an extension to larger classes of processes is discussed. In particular, it is pointed out that orthogonality of the chaos expansion is not required.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.

The expected imprint of flux rope geometry on suprathermal electrons in magnetic clouds

Magnetic clouds are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections characterized by a smooth rotation in the magnetic field direction, which is interpreted as a signature of a magnetic flux rope. Suprathermal electron observations indicate that one or both ends of a magnetic cloud typically remain connected to the Sun as it moves out through the heliosphere. With distance from the axis of the flux rope, out toward its edge, the magnetic field winds more tightly about the axis and electrons must traverse longer magnetic field lines to reach the same heliocentric distance. This increased time of flight allows greater pitch-angle scattering to occur, meaning suprathermal electron pitch-angle distributions should be systematically broader at the edges of the flux rope than at the axis. We model this effect with an analytical magnetic flux rope model and a numerical scheme for suprathermal electron pitch-angle scattering and find that the signature of a magnetic flux rope should be observable with the typical pitch-angle resolution of suprathermal electron data provided ACE's SWEPAM instrument. Evidence of this signature in the observations, however, is weak, possibly because reconnection of magnetic fields within the flux rope acts to intermix flux tubes.

Phylogenetic utility of more axillary growth (MAX4 ) - like genes: a case study in Digitalis / Isoplexis (Plantaginaceae)

We present the first assessment of phylogenetic utility of a potential novel low-copy nuclear gene region in flowering plants. A fragment of the MORE AXILLARY GROWTH 4 gene (MAX4, also known as RAMOSUS1 and DECREASED APICAL DOMINANCE1), predicted to span two introns, was isolated from members of Digitalis/Isoplexis. Phylogenetic analyses, under both maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference, were performed and revealed evidence of putative MAX4-like paralogues. The MAX4-like trees were compared with those obtained for Digitalis/Isoplexis using ITS and trnL-F, revealing a high degree of incongruence between these different DNA regions. Network analyses indicate complex patterns of evolution between the MAX4 sequences, which cannot be adequately represented on bifurcating trees. The incidence of paralogy restricts the use of MAX4 in phylogenetic inference within the study group, although MAX4 could potentially be used in combination with other DNA regions for resolving species relationships in cases where paralogues can be clearly identified.

Phylogenetic utility of MORE AXILLARY GROWTH4 (MAX4)-like genes: a case study in Digitalis/Isoplexis (Plantaginaceae)

We present the first assessment of phylogenetic utility of a potential novel low-copy nuclear gene region in flowering plants. A fragment of the MORE AXILLARY GROWTH 4 gene (MAX4, also known as RAMOSUS1 and DECREASED APICAL DOMINANCE1), predicted to span two introns, was isolated from members of Digitalis/Isoplexis. Phylogenetic analyses, under both maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference, were performed and revealed evidence of putative MAX4-like paralogues. The MAX4-like trees were compared with those obtained for Digitalis/Isoplexis using ITS and trnL-F, revealing a high degree of incongruence between these different DNA regions. Network analyses indicate complex patterns of evolution between the MAX4 sequences, which cannot be adequately represented on bifurcating trees. The incidence of paralogy restricts the use of MAX4 in phylogenetic inference within the study group, although MAX4 could potentially be used in combination with other DNA regions for resolving species relationships in cases where paralogues can be clearly identified.

The utility of leaf flavonoids as taxonomic markers for some Malaysian species of the tribe Shoreae (Dipterocarpaceae)

A flavonoid survey was carried out on 45 taxa from the genera Shorea, Hopea, Parashorea, Neobalanocarpus, and Dryobalanops of the tribe Shoreae in the Dipterocarpaceae. The study showed significant chemotaxonomic differences in leaf flavonoid aglycone patterns and the presence of tannins in these taxa. The flavonoid patterns are useful in the delimitation of some taxa. For example, the genus Parashorea is distinguished by the universal presence of kaempferol 3-methyl ether, and the monotypic genus Neobalanocarpus is unique in not producing ellagic and gallo tannins. The presence of chalcones and flavone C-glycosides supports the separation of the genus Hopea into two sections, section Dryobalanoides and section Hopea in Ashton's classification, which is based on the type of venation. The flavonoid distributions in this study show that they can be very useful for differentiating between the Balau group in the genus Shorea, and some scaly barked Hopea species, particularly H. helferi (lintah bukit), H. nutans (giam), and H. ferrea (malut). (C) 2008 The Linnean Society of London.

Enhanced phosphopeptide isolation by Fe(III)-IMAC using 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoroisopropanol

IMAC can be used to selectively enrich phosphopeptides from complex peptide mixtures, but co-retention of acidic peptides together with the failure to retain some phosphopeptides restricts the general utility of the method. In this study Fe(III)-IMAC was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed using a panel of phosphopeptides, both synthetic and derived from proteolysis of known phosphoproteins, to identify the causes of success and failure in the application of this technique. Here we demonstrate that, as expected, peptides with a more acidic amino acid content are generally more efficiently purified and detected by MALDI-MS after Fe(III)-IMAC than those with a more basic content. Modulating the loading buffer used for Fe(III)-IMAC significantly affects phosphopeptide binding and suggests that conformational factors that lead to steric hindrance and reduced accessibility to the phosphate are important. The use of 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoroisopropanol is shown here to significantly improve Fe(III)-IMAC enrichment and subsequent detection of phosphopeptides by MALDI-MS.