The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

Running Climate Models On The NERC Cluster Grid Using G-Rex

Compute grids are used widely in many areas of environmental science, but there has been limited uptake of grid computing by the climate modelling community, partly because the characteristics of many climate models make them difficult to use with popular grid middleware systems. In particular, climate models usually produce large volumes of output data, and running them usually involves complicated workflows implemented as shell scripts. For example, NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) is a state-of-the-art ocean model that is used currently for operational ocean forecasting in France, and will soon be used in the UK for both ocean forecasting and climate modelling. On a typical modern cluster, a particular one year global ocean simulation at 1-degree resolution takes about three hours when running on 40 processors, and produces roughly 20 GB of output as 50000 separate files. 50-year simulations are common, during which the model is resubmitted as a new job after each year. Running NEMO relies on a set of complicated shell scripts and command utilities for data pre-processing and post-processing prior to job resubmission. Grid Remote Execution (G-Rex) is a pure Java grid middleware system that allows scientific applications to be deployed as Web services on remote computer systems, and then launched and controlled as if they are running on the user's own computer. Although G-Rex is general purpose middleware it has two key features that make it particularly suitable for remote execution of climate models: (1) Output from the model is transferred back to the user while the run is in progress to prevent it from accumulating on the remote system and to allow the user to monitor the model; (2) The client component is a command-line program that can easily be incorporated into existing model work-flow scripts. G-Rex has a REST (Fielding, 2000) architectural style, which allows client programs to be very simple and lightweight and allows users to interact with model runs using only a basic HTTP client (such as a Web browser or the curl utility) if they wish. This design also allows for new client interfaces to be developed in other programming languages with relatively little effort. The G-Rex server is a standard Web application that runs inside a servlet container such as Apache Tomcat and is therefore easy to install and maintain by system administrators. G-Rex is employed as the middleware for the NERC1 Cluster Grid, a small grid of HPC2 clusters belonging to collaborating NERC research institutes. Currently the NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) and POLCOMS (Holt et al, 2008) ocean models are installed, and there are plans to install the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model for use in the decadal climate prediction project GCEP (Haines et al., 2008). The science projects involving NEMO on the Grid have a particular focus on data assimilation (Smith et al. 2008), a technique that involves constraining model simulations with observations. The POLCOMS model will play an important part in the GCOMS project (Holt et al, 2008), which aims to simulate the world’s coastal oceans. A typical use of G-Rex by a scientist to run a climate model on the NERC Cluster Grid proceeds as follows :(1) The scientist prepares input files on his or her local machine. (2) Using information provided by the Grid’s Ganglia3 monitoring system, the scientist selects an appropriate compute resource. (3) The scientist runs the relevant workflow script on his or her local machine. This is unmodified except that calls to run the model (e.g. with “mpirun”) are simply replaced with calls to "GRexRun" (4) The G-Rex middleware automatically handles the uploading of input files to the remote resource, and the downloading of output files back to the user, including their deletion from the remote system, during the run. (5) The scientist monitors the output files, using familiar analysis and visualization tools on his or her own local machine. G-Rex is well suited to climate modelling because it addresses many of the middleware usability issues that have led to limited uptake of grid computing by climate scientists. It is a lightweight, low-impact and easy-to-install solution that is currently designed for use in relatively small grids such as the NERC Cluster Grid. A current topic of research is the use of G-Rex as an easy-to-use front-end to larger-scale Grid resources such as the UK National Grid service.

The effect of ram replacement and sex ratio on the sexual response of anoestrous ewes

It is accepted that an important source of variation in the response of anoestrous ewes, to the introduction of rams, is the intensity of male stimulation. The aim of this study was to investigate strategies capable of increasing the impact and transmission of the ram stimuli. In Experiment 1, two groups of seven ewes (Bluefaced Leicester male x Swaledale female) were individually penned with one ram and for the next 6 h the rams either remained in the pen or were replaced hourly. Blood samples revealed no difference in the pattern of plasma LH secretion. In Experiment 2, three groups of 16 ewes were either introduced to one ram, individually (H) or in groups of 8 (L), or remained isolated. Ram introduction increased the plasma LH pulsatility (P < 0.001). H ewes displayed more (nine versus six) male-induced LH pulses (pulses occurring within the first 45 min) and more pulses per 8 h intervals than the L group of ewes (1.9 +/- 0.3 versus 1.3 +/- 0.3), but these differences were not significant. It was concluded that (i) frequent replacement of rams within a few hours following ram introduction to ewes does not further improve the response of ewes, especially if the ram:ewe ratio is high; (ii) the characterization of the plasma LH secretion parameters during a period of 6-8 h does not seem to be an effective method to detect small differences in the intensity of stimulation received by the ewes when exposed to rams; (iii) North Country Mule ewes (Bluefaced Leicester male x Swaledale female) in the UK respond to the presence of rams in spring (late oestrous/early anoestrous season) with an elevation in plasma LH secretion. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of Rhinanthus minor in newly established meadows on a productive site

Question: What is the impact of the presence of Rhinanthus minor on forb abundance in newly established swards? Location: Wetherby, West Yorkshire, UK (53 degrees 55' N, 1 degrees 22(1) W). Method: A standard meadow mix containing six forbs and six grasses was sown on an ex-arable field and immediately over-sown using a randomised plot design with three densities of Rhinanthus minor (0, 600, and 1000 seeds per m(2)). Above-ground biomass was analysed over a period of three years, while detailed assessments of sward composition were performed during the first two years. Results: Values of grass biomass were reduced in the presence of Rhinanthus, especially at the higher sowing density. The ratio of grass: forb biomass was also lower in association with Rhinanthus, but only at the higher sowing density. The presence of Rhinanthus, had no effect on species number or diversity, which decreased between years regardless of treatment. Conclusions: Although not tested in a multi-site experiment, the benefit of introducing Rhinanthus into newly established swards to promote for abundance was determined. The efficacy of Rhinanthus presence is likely to depend on whether species not susceptible to the effects of parasitism are present.

Terrestrial carnivores and human food production: impact and management

1. The production of food for human consumption has led to an historical and global conflict with terrestrial carnivores, which in turn has resulted in the extinction or extirpation of many species, although some have benefited. At present, carnivores affect food production by: (i) killing human producers; killing and/or eating (ii) fish/shellfish; (iii) game/wildfowl; (iv) livestock; (v) damaging crops; (vi) transmitting diseases; and (vii) through trophic interactions with other species in agricultural landscapes. Conversely, carnivores can themselves be a source of dietary protein (bushmeat). 2. Globally, the major areas of conflict are predation on livestock and the transmission of rabies. At a broad scale, livestock predation is a customary problem where predators are present and has been quantified for a broad range of carnivore species, although the veracity of these estimates is equivocal. Typically, but not always, losses are small relative to the numbers held, but can be a significant proportion of total livestock mortality. Losses experienced by producers are often highly variable, indicating that factors such as husbandry practices and predator behaviour may significantly affect the relative vulnerability of properties in the wider landscape. Within livestock herds, juvenile animals are particularly vulnerable. 3. Proactive and reactive culling are widely practised as a means to limit predation on livestock and game. Historic changes in species' distributions and abundance illustrate that culling programmes can be very effective at reducing predator density, although such substantive impacts are generally considered undesirable for native predators. However, despite their prevalence, the effectiveness, efficiency and the benefit:cost ratio of culling programmes have been poorly studied. 4. A wide range of non-lethal methods to limit predation has been studied. However, many of these have their practical limitations and are unlikely to be widely applicable. 5. Lethal approaches are likely to dominate the management of terrestrial carnivores for the foreseeable future, but animal welfare considerations are increasingly likely to influence management strategies. The adoption of non-lethal approaches will depend upon proof of their effectiveness and the willingness of stakeholders to implement them, and, in some cases, appropriate licensing and legislation. 6. Overall, it is apparent that we still understand relatively little about the importance of factors affecting predation on livestock and how to manage this conflict effectively. We consider the following avenues of research to be essential: (i) quantified assessments of the loss of viable livestock; (ii) landscape-level studies of contiguous properties to quantify losses associated with variables such as different husbandry practices; (iii) replicated experimental manipulations to identify the relative benefit of particular management practices, incorporating (iv) techniques to identify individual predators killing stock; and (v) economic analyses of different management approaches to quantify optimal production strategies.

Building cluster and shading in urban canyon for hot dry climate Part 2: Shading simulations

Under low latitude conditions, minimisation of solar irradiance within the urban environment may often be an important criterion in urban design. This can be achieved when the obstruction angle is large (high H/W ratio, H = height, W = width). Solar access to streets can always be decreased by increasing H/W to larger values. It is shown in this paper that the street canyon orientation (and not only the H/W ratio) has a considerable effect on solar shading and urban microclimate. The paper demonstrates through a series of shading simulation and temperature measurements that a number of useful relationships can be developed between the geometry and the microclimate of urban street canyons. These relationships are potentially helpful to assist in the formulation of urban design guidelines governing street dimensions and orientations for use by urban designers.

Urbanisation and its impact on building energy consumption and efficiency in China

The People's Republic of China and its 1.3 billion people have experienced a rapid economic growth in the past two decades. China's urbanisation ratio rose from around 20% in the early 1980s to 45% in 2007 [China Urban Research Committee. Green building. Beijing: Chinese Construction Industrial Publish House; 2008. ISBN 978-7-112-09925-2.]. The large volume and rapid speed of building construction rarely have been seen in global development and cause substantial pressure on resources and the environment. Government policy makers and building professionals, including architects, building engineers, project managers and property developers, should play an important role in enhancing the planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance of the building energy efficiency process in forming the sustainable urban development. This paper addresses the emerging issues relating to building energy consumption and building energy efficiency due to the fast urbanisation development in China.

Lack of effect of dietary n-6 : n-3 PUFA ratio on plasma lipids and markers of insulin responses in Indian Asians living in the UK

Background: Indian Asians living in Western Countries have an over 50% increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) relative to their Caucasians counterparts. The atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP), which is more prevalent in this ethnic group, may in part explain the increased risk. A low dietary long chain n-3 fatty acid (LC n-3 PUFA) intake and a high dietary n-6 PUFA intake and n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio in Indian Asians have been proposed as contributors to the increased ALP incidence and CHD risk in this subgroup. Aim: To examine the impact of dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio on membrane fatty acid composition, blood lipid levels and markers of insulin sensitivity in Indian Asians living in the UK. Methods: Twenty-nine males were assigned to either a moderate or high n-6:n-3 PUFA (9 or 16) diet for 6 weeks. Fasting blood samples were collected at baseline and 6 weeks for analysis of triglycerides, total-, LDL- and HDL- cholesterol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin, markers of insulin sensitivity and C-reactive protein. Results: Group mean saturated fatty acid, MUFA, n-6 PUFA and n-3 PUFA on the moderate and high n-6:n-3 PUFA diets were 26 g/d, 43 g/d, 15 g/d, 2 g/d and 25 g/d, 25 g/d, 28 g/d, 2 g/d respectively. A significantly lower total membrane n-3 PUFA and a trend towards lower EPA and DHA levels were observed following the high n-6:n-3 PUFA diet. However no significant effect of treatment on plasma lipids was evident. There was a trend towards a loss of insulin sensitivity on the high n-6:n-3 PUFA diet, with the increase in fasting insulin (P = 0.04) and HOMA IR [(insulin x glucose)/22.5] (P = 0.02) reaching significance. Conclusion: The results of the current study suggest that, within the context of a western diet, it is unlikely that dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio has any major impact on the levels of LC n-3 PUFA in membrane phospholipids or have any major clinically relevant impact on insulin sensitivity and its associated dyslipidaemia.

Redox control of light-induced charge separation in a transition metal cluster: photochemistry of a methyl viologen-substituted [Os-3(CO)10(a-diimine)] cluster

Sub)picosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectra of the cluster [OS3(CO)(10-) (AcPy-MV)](2+) (the clication AcPy-MV = Acpy-MV2+ = [2-pyridylacetimine-N-(2-(1'-methyl-4,4'-bipyridine-1,1'-diium-1-yl) ethyl)] (PF6)(2)) (1(2+)) reveal that photoinduced electron transfer to the electron-accepting 4,4'-bipyridine-1,1'diium (MV2+) moiety competes with the fast relaxation of the initially populated sigmapi* excited state of the cluster to the ground state and/or cleavage of an Os-Os bond. The TA spectra of cluster 12 in acetone, obtained by irradiation into its lowest-energy absorption band, show the characteristic absorptions of the one-electron-reduced MV*(+) unit at 400 and 615 nm, in accordance with population of a charge-separated (CS) state in which a cluster-core electron has been transferred to the lowest pi* orbital of the remote MV2+ unit. This assignment is confirmed by picosecond TRIR spectra that show a large shift of the pilot highest-frequency nu(CO) band of 1(2+) by ca. +40 cm(-1), reflecting the photooxidation of the cluster core. The CS state is populated via fast (4.2 x 10(11) s(-1)) and efficient (88%) oxidative quenching of the optically populated sigmapi* excited state and decays biexponentially with lifetimes of 38 and 166 ps (1:2:1 ratio) with a complete regeneration of the parent cluster. About 12% of the cluster molecules in the sigmapi* excited state form long-lived open-core biradicals. In strongly coordinating acetonitrile, however, the cluster core-to-MV2+ electron transfer in cluster 12+ results in the irreversible formation of secondary photoproducts with a photooxidized cluster core. The photochemical behavior of the [Os-3(CO)(10)(alpha-diimine-MV)](2+) (donor-acceptor) dyad can be controlled by an externally applied electronic bias. Electrochemical one-electron reduction of the MV2+ moiety prior to the irradiation reduces its electron-accepting character to such an extent that the photoinduced electron transfer to MV*+ is no longer feasible. Instead, the irradiation of reduced cluster 1(.)+ results in the reversible formation of an open-core zwitterion, the ultimate photoproduct also observed upon irradiation of related nonsubstituted clusters [Os-3(CO)(10)(alpha-diimine)] in strongly coordinating solvents such as acetonitrile.

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratio analysis of freshwater, brackish and marine fish from Belgian archaeological sites (1st and 2nd millennium AD)

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios were measured in 157 fish bone collagen samples from 15 different archaeological sites in Belgium which ranged in ages from the 3rd to the 18th c. AD. Due to diagenetic contamination of the burial environment, only 63 specimens produced results with suitable C:N ratios (2.9–3.6). The selected bones encompass a wide spectrum of freshwater, brackish, and marine taxa (N = 18), and this is reflected in the δ13C results (−28.2‰ to −12.9%). The freshwater fish have δ13C values that range from −28.2‰ to −20.2‰, while the marine fish cluster between −15.4‰ and −13.0‰. Eel, a catadromous species (mostly living in freshwater but migrating into the sea to spawn), plots between −24.1‰ and −17.7‰, and the anadromous fish (living in marine environments but migrating into freshwater to spawn) show a mix of freshwater and marine isotopic signatures. The δ15N results also have a large range (7.2‰ to 16.7‰) indicating that these fish were feeding at many different trophic levels in these diverse aquatic environments. The aim of this research is the isotopic characterization of archaeological fish species (ecology, trophic level, migration patterns) and to determine intra-species variation within and between fish populations differing in time and location. Due to the previous lack of archaeological fish isotope data from Northern Europe and Belgium in particular, these results serve as an important ecological backdrop for the future isotopic reconstruction of the diet of human populations dating from the historical period (1st and 2nd millennium AD), where there is zooarchaeological and historical evidence for an increased consumption of marine fish.

Obesity and body fat classification in the metabolic syndrome: impact on cardiometabolic risk metabotype

Obesity is a key factor in the development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS), which is associated with increased cardiometabolic risk. We investigated whether obesity classification by body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (BF%) influences cardiometabolic profile and dietary responsiveness in 486 MetS subjects (LIPGENE dietary intervention study). Anthropometric measures, markers of inflammation and glucose metabolism, lipid profiles, adhesion molecules and haemostatic factors were determined at baseline and after 12 weeks of 4 dietary interventions (high saturated fat (SFA), high monounsaturated fat (MUFA) and 2 low fat high complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diets, 1 supplemented with long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs)). 39% and 87% of subjects classified as normal and overweight by BMI were obese according to their BF%. Individuals classified as obese by BMI (± 30 kg/m2) and BF% (± 25% (men) and ± 35% (women)) (OO, n = 284) had larger waist and hip measurements, higher BMI and were heavier (P < 0.001) than those classified as non-obese by BMI but obese by BF% (NOO, n = 92). OO individuals displayed a more pro-inflammatory (higher C reactive protein (CRP) and leptin), pro-thrombotic (higher plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1)), pro-atherogenic (higher leptin/adiponectin ratio) and more insulin resistant (higher HOMA-IR) metabolic profile relative to the NOO group (P < 0.001). Interestingly, tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) concentrations were lower post-intervention in NOO individuals compared to OO subjects (P < 0.001). In conclusion, assessing BF% and BMI as part of a metabotype may help identify individuals at greater cardiometabolic risk than BMI alone.

Impact of a new anisotropic rheology on simulations of Arctic sea ice

new rheology that explicitly accounts for the subcontinuum anisotropy of the sea ice cover is implemented into the Los Alamos sea ice model. This is in contrast to all models of sea ice included in global circulation models that use an isotropic rheology. The model contains one new prognostic variable, the local structure tensor, which quantifies the degree of anisotropy of the sea ice, and two parameters that set the time scale of the evolution of this tensor. The anisotropic rheology provides a subcontinuum description of the mechanical behavior of sea ice and accounts for a continuum scale stress with large shear to compression ratio and tensile stress component. Results over the Arctic of a stand-alone version of the model are presented and anisotropic model sensitivity runs are compared with a reference elasto-visco-plastic simulation. Under realistic forcing sea ice quickly becomes highly anisotropic over large length scales, as is observed from satellite imagery. The influence of the new rheology on the state and dynamics of the sea ice cover is discussed. Our reference anisotropic run reveals that the new rheology leads to a substantial change of the spatial distribution of ice thickness and ice drift relative to the reference standard visco-plastic isotropic run, with ice thickness regionally increased by more than 1 m, and ice speed reduced by up to 50%.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

Impact of HPA nonlinearity on MIMO systems with quantized equal gain transmission

In this paper, we investigate the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems in the presence of nonlinear high-power amplifiers (HPAs). Due to the suboptimality of maximal ratio transmission/maximal ratio combining (MRT/MRC) under HPA nonlinearity, quantized equal gain transmission (QEGT) is suggested as a feasible TB scheme. The effect of HPA nonlinearity on the performance of MIMO QEGT/MRC is evaluated in terms of the average symbol error probability (SEP) and system capacity, considering transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the parameters of nonlinear HPA, cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

Impact of geographical region on urinary metabolomic and plasma fatty acid profiles in subjects with the metabolic syndrome across Europe: the LIPGENE study

The application of metabolomics in multi-centre studies is increasing. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of geographical location on the metabolic profiles of individuals with the metabolic syndrome. Blood and urine samples were collected from 219 adults from seven European centres participating in the LIPGENE project (Diet, genomics and the metabolic syndrome: an integrated nutrition, agro-food, social and economic analysis). Nutrient intakes, BMI, waist:hip ratio, blood pressure, and plasma glucose, insulin and blood lipid levels were assessed. Plasma fatty acid levels and urine were assessed using a metabolomic technique. The separation of three European geographical groups (NW, northwest; NE, northeast; SW, southwest) was identified using partial least-squares discriminant analysis models for urine (R 2 X: 0•33, Q 2: 0•39) and plasma fatty acid (R 2 X: 0•32, Q 2: 0•60) data. The NW group was characterised by higher levels of urinary hippurate and N-methylnicotinate. The NE group was characterised by higher levels of urinary creatine and citrate and plasma EPA (20 : 5 n-3). The SW group was characterised by higher levels of urinary trimethylamine oxide and lower levels of plasma EPA. The indicators of metabolic health appeared to be consistent across the groups. The SW group had higher intakes of total fat and MUFA compared with both the NW and NE groups (P≤ 0•001). The NE group had higher intakes of fibre and n-3 and n-6 fatty acids compared with both the NW and SW groups (all P< 0•001). It is likely that differences in dietary intakes contributed to the separation of the three groups. Evaluation of geographical factors including diet should be considered in the interpretation of metabolomic data from multi-centre studies.