An ECOOP web portal for visualising and comparing distributed coastal oceanography model and in situ data

As part of a large European coastal operational oceanography project (ECOOP), we have developed a web portal for the display and comparison of model and in situ marine data. The distributed model and in situ datasets are accessed via an Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) respectively. These services were developed independently and readily integrated for the purposes of the ECOOP project, illustrating the ease of interoperability resulting from adherence to international standards. The key feature of the portal is the ability to display co-plotted timeseries of the in situ and model data and the quantification of misfits between the two. By using standards-based web technology we allow the user to quickly and easily explore over twenty model data feeds and compare these with dozens of in situ data feeds without being concerned with the low level details of differing file formats or the physical location of the data. Scientific and operational benefits to this work include model validation, quality control of observations, data assimilation and decision support in near real time. In these areas it is essential to be able to bring different data streams together from often disparate locations.

Emergence of spatially heterogeneous burst suppression in a neural field model of electrocortical activity

Burst suppression in the electroencephalogram (EEG) is a well-described phenomenon that occurs during deep anesthesia, as well as in a variety of congenital and acquired brain insults. Classically it is thought of as spatially synchronous, quasi-periodic bursts of high amplitude EEG separated by low amplitude activity. However, its characterization as a “global brain state” has been challenged by recent results obtained with intracranial electrocortigraphy. Not only does it appear that burst suppression activity is highly asynchronous across cortex, but also that it may occur in isolated regions of circumscribed spatial extent. Here we outline a realistic neural field model for burst suppression by adding a slow process of synaptic resource depletion and recovery, which is able to reproduce qualitatively the empirically observed features during general anesthesia at the whole cortex level. Simulations reveal heterogeneous bursting over the model cortex and complex spatiotemporal dynamics during simulated anesthetic action, and provide forward predictions of neuroimaging signals for subsequent empirical comparisons and more detailed characterization. Because burst suppression corresponds to a dynamical end-point of brain activity, theoretically accounting for its spatiotemporal emergence will vitally contribute to efforts aimed at clarifying whether a common physiological trajectory is induced by the actions of general anesthetic agents. We have taken a first step in this direction by showing that a neural field model can qualitatively match recent experimental data that indicate spatial differentiation of burst suppression activity across cortex.

Aerosol optical depths over North Africa: 2. Modeling and model validation

An operational dust forecasting model is developed by including the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model dust parameterization scheme, within a Met Office regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model includes parameterizations for dust uplift, dust transport, and dust deposition in six discrete size bins and provides diagnostics such as the aerosol optical depth. The results are compared against surface and satellite remote sensing measurements and against in situ measurements from the Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements for a case study when a strong dust event was forecast. Comparisons are also performed against satellite and surface instrumentation for the entire month of August. The case study shows that this Saharan dust NWP model can provide very good guidance of dust events, as much as 42 h ahead. The analysis of monthly data suggests that the mean and variability in the dust model is also well represented.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Effect of fecal water on an in vitro model of colonic mucosal barrier function

Fecal water (FW) has been shown to exert, in cultured cells, cytotoxic and genotoxic effects that have implications for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We have investigated a further biological activity of FW, namely, the ability to affect gap junctions in CACO2 cell monolayers as an index of mucosal barrier function, which is known to be disrupted in cancer. FW samples fi-om healthy, free-living, European subjects that were divided into two broad age groups, adult (40 +/- 9.7 yr; n = 53) and elderly (76 +/- 7.5 yr; n = 55) were tested for effects on gap junction using the transepithelial resistance (TER) assay. Overall, treatment of CACO2 cells with FW samples fi-om adults increased TER (+ 4 %), whereas FW from elderly subjects decreased TER (-5%); the difference between the two groups was significant (P < 0.05). We also measured several components of FW potentially associated with modulation of TER, namely, short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) and ammonia. SCFAs (propionic, acetic, and n-butyric) were significantly lower in the elderly population (-30%, -35%, and -21%, respectively, all P pound 0.01). We consider that FW modulation of in vitro epithelial barrier function is a potentially useful noninvasive biomarker, but it requires further validation to establish its relationship to CRC risk.

Idealized model for changes in equilibrium temperature, mixed layer depth, and boundary layer cloud over land in a doubled CO2 climate

An idealized equilibrium model for the undisturbed partly cloudy boundary layer (BL) is used as a framework to explore the coupling of the energy, water, and carbon cycles over land in midlatitudes and show the sensitivity to the clear‐sky shortwave flux, the midtropospheric temperature, moisture, CO2, and subsidence. The changes in the surface fluxes, the BL equilibrium, and cloud cover are shown for a warmer, doubled CO2 climate. Reduced stomatal conductance in a simple vegetation model amplifies the background 2 K ocean temperature rise to an (unrealistically large) 6 K increase in near‐surface temperature over land, with a corresponding drop of near‐surface relative humidity of about 19%, and a rise of cloud base of about 70 hPa. Cloud changes depend strongly on changes of mean subsidence; but evaporative fraction (EF) decreases. EF is almost uniquely related to mixed layer (ML) depth, independent of background forcing climate. This suggests that it might be possible to infer EF for heterogeneous landscapes from ML depth. The asymmetry of increased evaporation over the oceans and reduced transpiration over land increases in a warmer doubled CO2 climate.

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

A linear model of gravity wave drag for hydrostatic sheared flow over elliptical mountains

An analytical model of orographic gravity wave drag due to sheared flow past elliptical mountains is developed. The model extends the domain of applicability of the well-known Phillips model to wind profiles that vary relatively slowly in the vertical, so that they may be treated using a WKB approximation. The model illustrates how linear processes associated with wind profile shear and curvature affect the drag force exerted by the airflow on mountains, and how it is crucial to extend the WKB approximation to second order in the small perturbation parameter for these effects to be taken into account. For the simplest wind profiles, the normalized drag depends only on the Richardson number, Ri, of the flow at the surface and on the aspect ratio, γ, of the mountain. For a linear wind profile, the drag decreases as Ri decreases, and this variation is faster when the wind is across the mountain than when it is along the mountain. For a wind that rotates with height maintaining its magnitude, the drag generally increases as Ri decreases, by an amount depending on γ and on the incidence angle. The results from WKB theory are compared with exact linear results and also with results from a non-hydrostatic nonlinear numerical model, showing in general encouraging agreement, down to values of Ri of order one.