An observing system simulation experiment to evaluate the scientific merit of wind and ozone measurements from the future SWIFT instrument

(from author) One of the first papers in the peer-review literature to discuss an OSSE to evaluate future wind observations in the stratosphere. Provides key evidence to justify the construction of the SWIFT instrument (currently planned to be built by the Canadian Space Agency for launch on ~ 2010).

Intake, live-weight gain and carcass characteristics of beef cattle given diets based on forage maize silage harvested at different stages of maturity

Advancing maturity of forage maize is associated with increases in the proportion of dry matter (DM) and starch, and decreases in the proportions of structural carbohydrates in the ensiled crop. This experiment investigated the effects of three maize silages of 291 (low), 339 (medium) and 393 (high) g DM per kg fresh weight on the performance of 48 Simmental. Holstein-Friesian cattle. Equal numbers of steers (mean start weight = 503 (s.d. 31.3) kg) and heifers (mean start weight = 378 (s.d. 11.2) kg) were offered individually isonitrogenous diets composed of the three silages plus a protein supplement with minerals once daily until slaughter at the target live weight of 575 and 475 kg for steers and heifers, respectively. Intake was reduced on the low diet (P < 0.01) compared with the other two treatments. Dietary starch intake increased by a total of 1 kg/day between low and medium diets but by only 0.2 kg/day between medium and high diets. Unlike starch intake, total neutral-detergent fibre intake showed no significant difference (P > 0.05) between diets. There were no differences in live-weight gain between treatments but differences (P < 0.05) in food conversion efficiency indicated relative gains of 115, 100 and 102 g gain per kg DM intake for diets low, medium and high, respectively. There were no differences between diets in carcass weights, fat score and overall conformation.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Investigation of high-efficiency Wireless Power Transfer criteria of resonantly-coupled loops and dipoles through analysis of the figure of merit

The efficiency of a Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) system is greatly dependent on both the geometry and operating frequency of the transmitting and receiving structures. By using Coupled Mode Theory (CMT), the figure of merit is calculated for resonantly-coupled loop and dipole systems. An in-depth analysis of the figure of merit is performed with respect to the key geometric parameters of the loops and dipoles, along with the resonant frequency, in order to identify the key relationships leading to high-efficiency WPT. For systems consisting of two identical single-turn loops, it is shown that the choice of both the loop radius and resonant frequency are essential in achieving high-efficiency WPT. For the dipole geometries studied, it is shown that the choice of length is largely irrelevant and that as a result of their capacitive nature, low-MHz frequency dipoles are able to produce significantly higher figures of merit than those of the loops considered. The results of the figure of merit analysis are used to propose and subsequently compare two mid-range loop and dipole WPT systems of equal size and operating frequency, where it is shown that the dipole system is able to achieve higher efficiencies than the loop system of the distance range examined.

A review of the theoretical basis for bulk mass flux convective parameterization

Most parameterizations for precipitating convection in use today are bulk schemes, in which an ensemble of cumulus elements with different properties is modelled as a single, representative entraining-detraining plume. We review the underpinning mathematical model for such parameterizations, in particular by comparing it with spectral models in which elements are not combined into the representative plume. The chief merit of a bulk model is that the representative plume can be described by an equation set with the same structure as that which describes each element in a spectral model. The equivalence relies on an ansatz for detrained condensate introduced by Yanai et al. (1973) and on a simplified microphysics. There are also conceptual differences in the closure of bulk and spectral parameterizations. In particular, we show that the convective quasi-equilibrium closure of Arakawa and Schubert (1974) for spectral parameterizations cannot be carried over to a bulk parameterization in a straightforward way. Quasi-equilibrium of the cloud work function assumes a timescale separation between a slow forcing process and a rapid convective response. But, for the natural bulk analogue to the cloud-work function (the dilute CAPE), the relevant forcing is characterised by a different timescale, and so its quasi-equilibrium entails a different physical constraint. Closures of bulk parameterization that use the non-entraining parcel value of CAPE do not suffer from this timescale issue. However, the Yanai et al. (1973) ansatz must be invoked as a necessary ingredient of those closures.

Fate of prions in soil: Longevity and migration of recPrP in soil columns

Research into transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) diseases has become a high priority worldwide in recent years yet remarkably little is known about the behaviour of TSE infectivity in the environment. The resilience and stability of prion proteins could lead to soils becoming a potential reservoir of TSE infectivity as a result of contamination from activities such as infected carcass burial or the dispersion of effluents from slaughter houses, or by contamination of pastures by infected animals, (e.g. scrapie in sheep). Knowledge of the fate of prion proteins in soils, and associated physico-chemical conditions which favour migration, can be used to help prevent re-infection of animals through grazing, to protect watercourses and develop good management practices. In two consecutive experiments of 9 and 6 months, the migration of recombinant ovine PrP (recPrP) in soil columns was followed under contrasting levels of microbial activity (normal versus reduced), under varying regimes of soil water content and redox potential, and in two different soil types (loamy sand and clay loam). At each analysis time (1, 3, 6 or 9 months), in both soil types, full-length recPrP was detected in the original contaminated layer, indicating the resilience and stability of recPrP under varied soil conditions, even in the presence of active soil microbial populations. Evidence of protein migration was found in every soil column at the earliest analysis time (1 or 3 months), but was restricted to a maximum distance of 1 cm, indicative of limited initial mobility in soils followed by strong adsorption over the following days to weeks. The survival of recPrP in the soil over a period of at least 9 months was demonstrated. In this study, recPrP was used as an indicator for potential TSE infectivity, although infectivity tests should be carried out before conclusions can be drawn regarding the infection risk posed by prions in soil. However, it has been demonstrated that soil is likely to act as a significant barrier to the dispersion of contaminated material at storage or burial sites. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intake, growth and meat quality of steers given diets based on varying proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Simmental × Holstein-Friesian steers were offered four forage diets. These comprised grass silage (G); proportionately 0·67 grass silage, proportionately 0·33 maize silage (GGM); 0·33 grass silage, 0·67 maize silage ( MMG); maize silage ( M) from 424 (s.d. = 11·5) kg to slaughter at a minimum weight of 560 kg. Forages were mixed and offered ad libitum. Steers were offered 2 kg of a concentrate daily, the concentrate being formulated such that all steers had similar crude protein intakes across dietary treatments. A sample of steers was slaughtered at the beginning of the experimental period to allow the calculation of the rate of gain of the carcass and its components. Carcass dissection of a sample of steers allowed the development of a prediction equation of carcass composition based on thoracic limb dissection of all carcasses. Forage dry matter intake and live-weight gain increased linearly as maize silage replaced grass silage in the forage mixture, resulting in improvements in food conversion ratio (all P = 0·001). Killing-out proportion increased with maize silage inclusion ( P < 0·001) but fat and conformation scores did not differ significantly between diets. However, increasing maize inclusion in the diet resulted in a greater weight ( P = 0·05) and proportion ( P = 0·008) of fat in the carcass, and significant increases in internal fat deposition. The inclusion of maize led to a progressive increase in the daily gains of carcass ( P < 0·001), and significant increases in the daily gains of both fat ( P < 0·001) and lean tissue ( P < 0·001). Fat colour was more yellow in cattle given diets G and GGM than diets MMG and M ( P < 0·001) and colour intensity was lower on diet M than the other three diets ( P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in any aspects of eating quality between diets. Therefore, maize silage has the potential to reduce the time taken for finishing beef animals to achieve slaughter weight with no apparent detrimental effects on subsequent meat quality.

Discarding Like Pieces

The guideline of ‘discarding like men’ to estimate the merit of a chess position is well known. This note compares it with some statistics.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO2] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in + 1 degrees C steps) and temperature variability (0% and + 50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Effects of dietary vitamin A concentration of roasted soybean inclusion on marbling, adipose cellularity, and fatty acid composition of beef

A feedlot trial was conducted to determine the effect of dietary vitamin A concentration and roasted soybean (SB) inclusion on carcass characteristics, adipose tissue cellularity, and muscle fatty acid composition. Angus-crossbred steers (n = 168; 295 +/- 1.8 kg) were allotted to 24 pens (7 steers each). Four treatments, in a 2 x 2 factorial arrangement, were investigated: no supplemental vitamin A, no roasted soybeans (NANS); no vitamin A, roasted SB (20% of the diet on a DM basis; NASB); with supplemental (2,700 IU/kg) vitamin A, no roasted SB (WANS); and with supplemental vitamin A, roasted SB (WASB). Diets included high moisture corn, 5% corn silage, 10 to 20% supplement, and 20% roasted SB in the SB treatments on a DM basis. The calculated vitamin A concentration in the basal diet was < 1,300 IU/kg of DM. Blood samples (2 steers/pen) were collected for serum vitamin A determination. Steers were slaughtered after 168 d on feed. Carcass characteristics and LM composition were determined. Fatty acid composition of LM was analyzed, and adipose cellularity in the i.m. and s.c. depots was determined. No vitamin A x SB interactions were detected (P > 0.10) for cattle performance, carcass composition, or muscle fatty acid composition. Low vitamin A diets (NA) did not affect (P > 0.05) ADG, DMI, or G:F. Quality grade tended (P = 0.07) to be greater in NA steers. Marbling scores and the percentage of carcasses grading > or = Choice(-) were 10% greater for NA steers, although these trends were not significant (P = 0.11 and 0.13, respectively). Backfat thickness and yield grade were not affected (P > 0.26) by vitamin A supplementation. Composition of the LM was not affected (P > 0.15) by vitamin A or SB supplementation. Serum retinol at slaughter was 44% lower (P < 0.01) for steers fed NA than for steers supplemented with vitamin A (23.0 vs. 41.1 microg/dL). A vitamin A x SB interaction occurred (P < 0.05) for adipose cellularity in the i.m. depot; when no SB was fed, vitamin A supplementation decreased cell density and increased cell size. However, when SB was fed, vitamin A supplementation did not affect adipose cellularity. Adipose cellularity at the s.c. depot was not affected (P > 0.18) by vitamin A or SB treatments. Fatty acid profile of the LM was not affected by vitamin A (P > 0.05), but SB increased (P < 0.05) PUFA (7.88 vs. 4.30 g/100 g). It was concluded that feeding NA tended to increase marbling without affecting back-fat and yield grade. It appeared that NA induced hyperplasia in the i.m. but not in the s.c. fat depot.

Effect of dietary vitamin A restriction on marbling and conjugated-linoleic acid (CLA) content in Holstein steers

To determine the effect of duration of dietary vitamin A restriction on site of fat deposition in growing cattle, 60 Holstein steers (BW = 218.4 ± 6.55 kg) were fed a diet based on high-moisture corn with 2,200 IU supplemental vitamin A/kg DM (C) or no supplemental vitamin A for a long (243 d; LR) or short (131 d; SR) restriction prior to harvest at 243 d. The SR steers were fed the C diet for the first 112 d. Steers were penned individually and fed for ad libitum intake. Jugular vein blood samples for serum retinol analysis were collected on d 1, 112, and 243. Carcass samples were collected for composition analysis. Subcutaneous fat samples were collected for fatty acid composition. Fat samples from the i.m. and s.c. depot were collected to measure adipocyte size and density. Feedlot performance (ADG, DMI, and G:F) was not affected (P > 0.05) by vitamin A restriction. On d 243, the i.m. fat content of the LM was 33% greater (P < 0.05) for LR than for SR and C steers (5.6 vs. 3.9 and 4.2% ether extract, respectively). Depth of back fat and KPH percentage were not affected (P = 0.44 and 0.80, respectively) by vitamin A restriction. Carcass weight, composition of edible carcass, and yield grade were similar among treatments (P > 0.10). Liver retinol (LR = 6.1, SR = 6.5, and C = 44.7 µg/g; P < 0.01) was reduced in LR and SR vs. C steers. On d 243, LR and SR steers had similar serum retinol concentrations, and these were lower (P < 0.01) than those of C steers (LR = 21.2, SR = 25.2, and C = 36.9 µg/dL). Intramuscular adipose cellularity (adipocyte/mm2 and mean adipocyte diameter) on d 112 and d 243 was not affected (P > 0.10) by vitamin A restriction. Restricting vitamin A intake for 243 d increased i.m fat percentage without affecting s.c. or visceral fat deposition, feedlot performance, or carcass weight. Restricting vitamin A intake for 131 d at the end of the finishing period appears to be insufficient to affect the site of fat deposition in Holstein steers.