Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

Configurations institutionnelles de la protection de l’enfance: regards croisés de l’Afrique, de l’Europe et de l’Amérique du Nord

Cet article porte sur l’analyse de trois configurations institutionnelles de la protection de l’enfance : celle en place au Burkina Faso, en Belgique et au Québec. Pour chaque configuration, le texte explore les transformations qui ont marqué le passage de la prise en charge exclusive de l’enfant par la famille vers la présence accrue de l’État et la manière dont la Convention internationale des droits de l’enfant de 1989 a influencé ce passage. Il montre, au travers d’une lecture historique, que l’implication de l’État dans la protection des enfants a connu des formes et des modalités variables selon le temps et l’espace. L’approche actuelle en matière de protection de l’enfance au Nord et au Sud, approche largement inspirée de la perspective des droits, représente un défi tant pour les intervenants que pour les familles, car son application dépend à fois des ressources disponibles pour aider les enfants et les familles en difficulté, de la capacité d’action des institutions publiques et de l’efficacité des interventions. This article deals with the analysis of three institutional configurations of child protection: those in Burkina Faso, in Belgium, and in Québec. With respect to each configuration, the text explores the changes from situations in which the family had sole control of the child to those where the State played a greater role, and the manner in which the 1989 International Convention on the Rights of the Child has affected such changes. It shows, through a reading of history, that the involvement of the State in child protection has gone through different forms and stages over time and space. The current strategies as regards child protection in the North and in the South—an approach that is largely subject to a legal perspective—represent a challenge both for intervenors and for families, since their application depends on the resources available for helping children and families in difficulty, on the ability of the public institutions to intervene, and on the efficiency of such interventions.