Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the U.K.

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD database over the period 1981 to 2003 than Normally distributed risk models, which mirrors results in the U.S. and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroscedastic, but the Characteristic Exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time yet may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non-systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with Normally distributed investment risk. Multi-risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite-variance statistics are ineffectual in the real estate context.

Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Globalisation and MA TESOL programs in the UK

This article reports the results of a mixed-methods approach to investigating the association between globalisation and MATESOL in UK universities. Qualitative and quantitative data collected from academic staff through eight emails, four interviews and 41 questionnaires indicate that the globalised context of higher education have affected these programmes in a number of ways including an increasing interest in recruiting more international students and a growing awareness about the need for curriculum and content modifications. The analysis of the data suggests that although change has been an inherent characteristic of these MAs over the past decade, it has been implemented gradually and conservatively, often relying on a dialectic relationship between academic staff and universities’ policies. The results imply that factors other than globalisation have also been at work. Many of the participants contend that globalisation has not lowered the quality of these MAs or standards of good practice.

Civilian casualties – do we really care? The failure of the revolution in military affairs of non-lethal weapons in the U.S., Russia and Israel

Causing civilian casualties during military operations has become a much politicised topic in international relations since the Second World War. Since the last decade of the 20th century, different scholars and political analysts have claimed that human life is valued more and more among the general international community. This argument has led many researchers to assume that democratic culture and traditions, modern ethical and moral issues have created a desire for a world without war or, at least, a demand that contemporary armed conflicts, if unavoidable, at least have to be far less lethal forcing the military to seek new technologies that can minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage. Non-Lethal Weapons (NLW) – weapons that are intended to minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage – are based on the technology that, during the 1990s, was expected to revolutionise the conduct of warfare making it significantly less deadly. The rapid rise of interest in NLW, ignited by the American military twenty five years ago, sparked off an entirely new military, as well as an academic, discourse concerning their potential contribution to military success on the 21st century battlefields. It seems, however, that except for this debate, very little has been done within the military forces themselves. This research suggests that the roots of this situation are much deeper than the simple professional misconduct of the military establishment, or the poor political behaviour of political leaders, who had sent them to fight. Following the story of NLW in the U.S., Russia and Israel this research focuses on the political and cultural aspects that have been supposed to force the military organisations of these countries to adopt new technologies and operational and organisational concepts regarding NLW in an attempt to minimise enemy civilian casualties during their military operations. This research finds that while American, Russian and Israeli national characters are, undoubtedly, products of the unique historical experience of each one of these nations, all of three pay very little regard to foreigners’ lives. Moreover, while it is generally argued that the international political pressure is a crucial factor that leads to the significant reduction of harmed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure, the findings of this research suggest that the American, Russian and Israeli governments are well prepared and politically equipped to fend off international criticism. As the analyses of the American, Russian and Israeli cases reveal, the political-military leaderships of these countries have very little external or domestic reasons to minimise enemy civilian casualties through fundamental-revolutionary change in their conduct of war. In other words, this research finds that employment of NLW have failed because the political leadership asks the militaries to reduce the enemy civilian casualties to a politically acceptable level, rather than to the technologically possible minimum; as in the socio-cultural-political context of each country, support for the former appears to be significantly higher than for the latter.

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

The impact of E-commerce on retail real estate in the UK

This article summarizes the main research findings from the first of a series of annual surveys conducted for the British Council of Shopping Centres. The study examines the changing pattern of retailing in the United Kingdom and provides an overview of key research from previous studies in both the U.K. and the United States. The main findings are then presented, including an examination of the impact of e-commerce on sales and rental values and on the future space and ownership / leasing requirements of U.K. retailers for 2000-2005. The impact on a shopping center in a case study town in the U.K. is also considered. The difficulties of isolating the impact of e-commerce from other forces for change in retailing are highlighted. In contrast to other viewpoints, the results show that e-commerce will not mean the death of conventional store-based U.K. retailing, although further benchmark research is needed.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: SWOT analysis of China

Construction professional services (CPSs), such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right but also have a knock-on effect on other businesses, such as construction and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to these knowledge-intensive CPS areas. Yet CPSs represent a research frontier that has received scant attention. This research aims to enrich the body of knowledge on CPSs by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPSs (CCPSs) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPSs present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolution. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a major CCPS strength. An opportunity for CCPSs is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors; by partnering with them CCPSs can better establish themselves in the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study on the performance of CCPSs in the international marketplace. The research is conducted at an opportune time, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and, potentially, professional services. It adds new insights to the knowledge body of CPSs and provides valuable references to other countries faced with the challenge of developing CPS business efficiently in the international market.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: a SWOT analysis of China

In contrast to their bustling construction counterparts, Chinese construction professional services (CPS) such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, seem still to be stagnant in the international market. CPS are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right, but also have a knock-on effect on subsequent businesses such as construction, and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to knowledge-intensive CPS. Yet,CPS represent a research area that has been paid scant attention. This research aims to add to the body of knowledge of CPS by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPS (CCPS) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPS present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolvement. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a CCPS major strength. An opportunity for CCPS is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors. By partnering with them CCPS can better edge into the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study in investigating the performance of CCPS in the international market. The research is also timely, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and potentially, professional services.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

Are sulfurous soil amendments (S0, Fe(II)SO4, Fe(III)SO4) an effective tool in the restoration of heathland and acidic grassland after four decades of rock phosphate Fertilization?

This paper deals with the complex issue of reversing long-term improvements of fertility in soils derived from heathlands and acidic grasslands using sulfur-based amendments. The experiment was conducted on a former heathland and acid grassland in the U.K. that was heavily fertilized and limed with rock phosphate, chalk, and marl. The experimental work had three aims. First, to determine whether sulfurous soil amendments are able to lower pH to a level suitable for heathland and acidic grassland re-creation (approximately 3 pH units). Second, to determine what effect the soil amendments have on the available pool of some basic cations and some potentially toxic acidic cations that may affect the plant community. Third, to determine whether the addition of Fe to the soil system would sequester PO4− ions that might be liberated from rock phosphate by the experimental treatments. The application of S0 and Fe(II)SO4− to the soil was able to reduce pH. However, only the highest S0 treatment (2,000 kg/ha S) lowered pH sufficiently for heathland restoration purposes but effectively so. Where pH was lowered, basic cations were lost from the exchangeable pool and replaced by acidic cations. Where Fe was added to the soil, there was no evidence of PO4− sequestration from soil test data (Olsen P), but sequestration was apparent because of lower foliar P in the grass sward. The ability of the forb Rumex acetosella to apparently detoxify Al3+, prevalent in acidified soils, appeared to give it a competitive advantage over other less tolerant species. We would anticipate further changes in plant community structure through time, driven by Al3+ toxicity, leading to the competitive exclusion of less tolerant species. This, we suggest, is a key abiotic driver in the restoration of biotic (acidic plant) communities.

Re-examining the U.K.'s greatest tornado outbreak: forecasting the limited extent of tornadoes along a cold front

On 23 November 1981, a strong cold front swept across the U.K., producing tornadoes from the west to the east coasts. An extensive campaign to collect tornado reports by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) resulted in 104 reports, the largest U.K. outbreak. The front was simulated with a convection-permitting numerical model down to 200-m horizontal grid spacing to better understand its evolution and meteorological environment. The event was typical of tornadoes in the U.K., with convective available potential energy (CAPE) less than 150 J kg-1, 0-1-km wind shear of 10-20 m s-1, and a narrow cold-frontal rainband forming precipitation cores and gaps. A line of cyclonic absolute vorticity existed along the front, with maxima as large as 0.04 s-1. Some hook-shaped misovortices bore kinematic similarity to supercells. The narrow swath along which the line was tornadic was bounded on the equatorward side by weak vorticity along the line and on the poleward side by zero CAPE, enclosing a region where the environment was otherwise favorable for tornadogenesis. To determine if the 104 tornado reports were plausible, first possible duplicate reports were eliminated, resulting in as few as 58 tornadoes to as many as 90. Second, the number of possible parent misovortices that may have spawned tornadoes is estimated from model output. The number of plausible tornado reports in the 200-m grid-spacing domain was 22 and as many as 44, whereas the model simulation was used to estimate 30 possible parent misovortices within this domain. These results suggest that 90 reports was plausible.