Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the effect of time and temperature on the availability of residual phosphate in a glasshouse study of four soils using the Olsen method

The Olsen method is an indicator of plant-available phosphorus (P). The effect of time and temperature on residual phosphate in soils was measured using the Olsen method in a pot experiment. Four soils were investigated: two from Pakistan and one each from England (calcareous) and Colombia (acidic). Two levels of residual phosphate were developed in each soil after addition of phosphate by incubation at either 10degreesC or 45degreesC. The amount of phosphate added was based on the P maximum of each soil, calculated using the Langmuir equation. Rvegrass was used as the test crop. The pooled data for the four soils incubated at 10degreesC showed good correlation between Olsen P and dry matter yield or P uptake (r(2) = 0.85 and 0.77, respectively), whereas at 45 degreesC, each soil had its own relationship and pooled data did not show correlation of Olsen P with dry matter yield or P uptake. When the data at both temperatures were pooled, Olsen P was a good indicator of yield and uptake for the English soil. For the Pakistani soils, Olsen P after 45 degreesC treatment was an underestimate relative to the 10 degreesC data and for the Colombian soil it was an overestimate. The reasons for these differences need to be explored further before high temperature incubation can be used to simulate long-term changes in the field.

Comparing sampling needs for variograms of soil properties computed by the method of moments and residual maximum likelihood

It has been generally accepted that the method of moments (MoM) variogram, which has been widely applied in soil science, requires about 100 sites at an appropriate interval apart to describe the variation adequately. This sample size is often larger than can be afforded for soil surveys of agricultural fields or contaminated sites. Furthermore, it might be a much larger sample size than is needed where the scale of variation is large. A possible alternative in such situations is the residual maximum likelihood (REML) variogram because fewer data appear to be required. The REML method is parametric and is considered reliable where there is trend in the data because it is based on generalized increments that filter trend out and only the covariance parameters are estimated. Previous research has suggested that fewer data are needed to compute a reliable variogram using a maximum likelihood approach such as REML, however, the results can vary according to the nature of the spatial variation. There remain issues to examine: how many fewer data can be used, how should the sampling sites be distributed over the site of interest, and how do different degrees of spatial variation affect the data requirements? The soil of four field sites of different size, physiography, parent material and soil type was sampled intensively, and MoM and REML variograms were calculated for clay content. The data were then sub-sampled to give different sample sizes and distributions of sites and the variograms were computed again. The model parameters for the sets of variograms for each site were used for cross-validation. Predictions based on REML variograms were generally more accurate than those from MoM variograms with fewer than 100 sampling sites. A sample size of around 50 sites at an appropriate distance apart, possibly determined from variograms of ancillary data, appears adequate to compute REML variograms for kriging soil properties for precision agriculture and contaminated sites. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict biological parameters of maize silage: effects of particle comminution, oven drying temperature and the presence of residual moisture

Maize silage nutritive quality is routinely determined by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS). However, little is known about the impact of sample preparation on the accuracy of the calibration to predict biological traits. A sample population of 48 maize silages representing a wide range of physiological maturities was used in a study to determine the impact of different sample preparation procedures (i.e., drying regimes; the presence or absence of residual moisture; the degree of particle comminution) on resultant NIR prediction statistics. All silages were scanned using a total of 12 combinations of sample pre-treatments. Each sample preparation combination was subjected to three multivariate regression techniques to give a total of 36 predictions per biological trait. Increased sample preparations procedure, relative to scanning the unprocessed whole plant (WP) material, always resulted in a numerical minimisation of model statistics. However, the ability of each of the treatments to significantly minimise the model statistics differed. Particle comminution was the most important factor, oven-drying regime was intermediate, and residual moisture presence was the least important. Models to predict various biological parameters of maize silage will be improved if material is subjected to a high degree of particle comminution (i.e., having been passed through a 1 mm screen) and developed on plant material previously dried at 60 degrees C. The extra effort in terms of time and cost required to remove sample residual moisture cannot be justified. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence for a residual postglacial founder effect in a highly dispersive freshwater invertebrate

In the northern hemisphere, glacial periods have had profound and lasting effects on the population genetics of numerous species, with founder effects often persisting for many generations in formerly glaciated regions. We found an unusual example of this in the freshwater bryozoan Cristatella mucedo, which showed regional differences in haplotype diversity with relatively low levels of haplotype diversity in northern Europe compared to central/southern Europe despite previous evidence for frequent dispersal between C. mucedo populations. Such contradictions between high dispersal and low gene flow have now been reported in several other freshwater taxa and may be attributed to persistent founder effects following colonization of sites by a few individuals whose efficient reproduction leads to rapid population growth. Alternatively, selection may determine which genotypes can thrive in northerly locations, or it may be that C. mucedo has undergone cryptic speciation. Future work on adaptive genomic regions is required before we can understand how gene flow, local adaptation, and speciation influence the current distribution patterns of bryozoans and other freshwater invertebrates.

Quantifying the residual creep life of polyester mooring ropes

This paper assesses the ARELIS (Assured Residual Life Span) method for estimating residual creep life of polyester rope used in deepwater mooring lines. A statistical model has been developed to quantify the uncertainties in the method, such as the scatter in creep rupture test data and load sharing between sub-ropes. This model can be used to determine the required test load, duration and number of ARELIS tests, in order to guarantee a minimum creep life for a mooring line at its service load. Creep rupture tests have been performed to provide input for the statistical model.

Cancellation of residual ghost VSB components from video IIR deghoster systems

Certain deghosters suffer from the presence of distortion caused by the quadrature forming nature of the IF VSB filter operating on a ghosted IF signal. By analysing this a priori effect, a specific deghoster solution is found by using the phase quadrature detected IF signal to cancel the VSB induced ghost quadrature distortions from the detected inphase signal before deghosting takes place.

Plastic films for polytunnels can prolong the effective residual life of cypermethrin to over 6 months

Synthetic pyrethroid insecticides are degraded almost entirely by ultraviolet (UV)-catalysed oxidation. A bioassay using the beetle Tribolium confusum duVal caged on bandages soaked in 0.04% a.i. cypermethrin showed large differences in residual insecticide-life under three plastic films available for cladding polytunnels. Cypermethrin exposed to a UV film that transmitted 70% of UVB and 80% of UVA killed all beetles for 8 weeks, compared to only 3 weeks for cypermethrin exposed in a clear plastic envelope. Cypermethrin under a UV-absorbing film that reduced the transmission of UVB and UVA to 14% and 50%, respectively, gave a complete kill for 17 weeks. Reducing the transmission of UVB to virtually zero, and that of UVA to only 3%, using a UV-opaque film prolonged the effective life of the cypermethrin residue to 26 weeks, and some beetles were still killed for a further 11 weeks. Even after this time, beetles exposed to cypermethrin from the UV-opaque treatment were still affected by the insecticide, and only showed near-normal mobility after 24 months of pesticide exposure to the UV-opaque film. These results have implications for the recommended intervals between cypermethrin treatment and crop harvest, and on the time of introduction of insect-based biological control agents, when UV-opaque films are used in commercial horticulture.

Does high-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation produce residual and/or cumulative effects within an experimental session?

A common procedure for studying the effects on cognition of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is to deliver rTMS concurrent with task performance, and to compare task performance on these trials versus on trials without rTMS. Recent evidence that TMS can have effects on neural activity that persist longer than the experimental session itself, however, raise questions about the assumption of the transient nature of rTMS that underlies many concurrent (or "online") rTMS designs. To our knowledge, there have been no studies in the cognitive domain examining whether the application of brief trains of rTMS during specific epochs of a complex task may have effects that spill over into subsequent task epochs, and perhaps into subsequent trials. We looked for possible immediate spill-over and longer-term cumulative effects of rTMS in data from two studies of visual short-term delayed recognition. In 54 subjects, 10-Hz rTMS trains were applied to five different brain regions during the 3-s delay period of a spatial task, and in a second group of 15 subjects, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded while 10-Hz rTMS was applied to two brain areas during the 3-s delay period of both spatial and object tasks. No evidence for immediate effects was found in the comparison of the memory probe-evoked response on trials that were vs. were not preceded by delay-period rTMS. No evidence for cumulative effects was found in analyses of behavioral performance, and of EEG signal, as a function of task block. The implications of these findings, and their relation to the broader literature on acute vs. long-lasting effects of rTMS, are considered.

The residual circulation of the Southern Ocean: which spatio-temporal scales are needed?

The Southern Ocean circulation consists of a complicated mixture of processes and phenomena that arise at different time and spatial scales which need to be parametrized in the state-of-the-art climate models. The temporal and spatial scales that give rise to the present-day residual mean circulation are here investigated by calculating the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in density coordinates from an eddy-permitting global model. The region sensitive to the temporal decomposition is located between 38°S and 63°S, associated with the eddy-induced transport. The ‘‘Bolus’’ component of the residual circulation corresponds to the eddy-induced transport. It is dominated by timescales between 1 month and 1 year. The temporal behavior of the transient eddies is examined in splitting the ‘‘Bolus’’ component into a ‘‘Seasonal’’, an ‘‘Eddy’’ and an ‘‘Inter-monthly’’ component, respectively representing the correlation between density and velocity fluctuations due to the average seasonal cycle, due to mesoscale eddies and due to large-scale motion on timescales longer than one month that is not due to the seasonal cycle. The ‘‘Seasonal’’ bolus cell is important at all latitudes near the surface. The ‘‘Eddy’’ bolus cell is dominant in the thermocline between 50°S and 35°S and over the whole ocean depth at the latitude of the Drake Passage. The ‘‘Inter-monthly’’ bolus cell is important in all density classes and is maximal in the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence and the Agulhas Return Current. The spatial decomposition indicates that a large part of the Eulerian mean circulation is recovered for spatial scales larger than 11.25°, implying that small-scale meanders in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), near the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts, and near the Subtropical Front are important in the compensation of the Eulerian mean flow.