Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.

Human red blood cells at work: identification and visualization of erythrocytic eNOS activity in health and disease

A nitric oxide synthase (NOS)-like activity has been demonstrated in human red blood cells (RBCs), but doubts about its functional significance, isoform identity and disease relevance remain. Using flow cytometry in combination with the NO-imaging probe DAF-FM we find that all blood cells form NO intracellularly, with a rank order of monocytes > neutrophils > lymphocytes > RBCs > platelets. The observation of a NO-related fluorescence within RBCs was unexpected given the abundance of the NO-scavenger oxyhemoglobin. Constitutive normoxic NO formation was abolished by NOS inhibition and intracellular NO scavenging, confirmed by laser-scanning microscopy and unequivocally validated by detection of the DAF-FM reaction product with NO using HPLC and LC-MS/MS. Employing immunoprecipitation, ESI-MS/MS-based peptide sequencing and enzymatic assay we further demonstrate that human RBCs contain an endothelial NOS (eNOS) that converts L-3H-Arginine to L-3H-Citrulline in a Ca2+/Calmodulin-dependent fashion. Moreover, in patients with coronary artery disease, red cell eNOS expression and activity are both lower than in age-matched healthy individuals and correlate with the degree of endothelial dysfunction. Thus, human RBCs constitutively produce NO under normoxic conditions via an active eNOS isoform the activity of which is compromised in patients with coronary artery disease.

A multi-level analytical approach for detection and visualization of intracellular NO production and nitrosation events using diaminofluoresceins

Diaminofluoresceins are widely used probes for detection and intracellular localization of NO formation in cultured/isolated cells and intact tissues. The fluorinated derivative, 4-amino-5-methylamino-2′,7′-difluorofluorescein (DAF-FM), has gained increasing popularity in recent years due to its improved NO-sensitivity, pH-stability, and resistance to photo-bleaching compared to the first-generation compound, DAF-2. Detection of NO production by either reagent relies on conversion of the parent compound into a fluorescent triazole, DAF-FM-T and DAF-2-T, respectively. While this reaction is specific for NO and/or reactive nitrosating species, it is also affected by the presence of oxidants/antioxidants. Moreover, the reaction with other molecules can lead to the formation of fluorescent products other than the expected triazole. Thus additional controls and structural confirmation of the reaction products are essential. Using human red blood cells as an exemplary cellular system we here describe robust protocols for the analysis of intracellular DAF-FM-T formation using an array of fluorescence-based methods (laser-scanning fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry and fluorimetry) and analytical separation techniques (reversed-phase HPLC and LC-MS/MS). When used in combination, these assays afford unequivocal identification of the fluorescent signal as being derived from NO and are applicable to most other cellular systems without or with only minor modifications.

Assessment of the dietary intake of total flavan-3-ols, monomeric flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins in the European Union

Dietary interventions with flavan-3-ols have shown beneficial effects on vascular function. The translation of these findings into the context of the health of the general public requires detailed information on habitual dietary intake. However, only limited data are currently available for European populations. Therefore, in the present study, we assessed the habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA) and theaflavins in the European Union (EU) and determined their main food sources using the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database. Data for adults aged 18–64 years were available from fourteen European countries, and intake was determined using the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database, developed for the present study and based on the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases. The mean habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, theaflavins and PA ranged from 181 mg/d (Czech Republic) to 793 mg/d (Ireland). The highest intakes of flavan-3-ol monomers and theaflavins were observed in Ireland (191/505 mg/d) and the lowest intakes in Spain (24/9 mg/d). In contrast, the daily intake of PA was highest in Spain (175 mg/d) and lowest in The Netherlands (96 mg/d). Main sources were tea (62 %), pome fruits (11 %), berries (3 %) and cocoa products (3 %). Tea was the major single contributor to monomer intake (75 %), followed by pome fruits (6 %). Pome fruits were also the main source of PA (28 %). The present study provides important data on the population-based intake of flavanols in the EU and demonstrates that dietary intake amounts for flavan-3-ol monomers, PA and theaflavins vary significantly across European countries. The average habitual intake of flavan-3-ols is considerably below the amounts used in most dietary intervention studies.

The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central-Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase, is caused by an interaction between the Western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central-Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional Eastern-Pacific (or EP) El Niño events rather than in Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend further west towards to the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies thus are able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response.

A new understanding of El Niño's impact over East Asia: dominance of the ENSO combination mode

Previous studies have shown that the Indo-Pacific atmospheric response to ENSO comprises two dominant modes of variability: a meridionally quasi-symmetric response (independent from the annual cycle) and an anti-symmetric response (arising from the nonlinear atmospheric interaction between ENSO variability and the annual cycle), referred to as the combination mode (C-Mode). This study demonstrates that the direct El Niño signal over the tropics is confined to the equatorial region and has no significant impact on the atmospheric response over East Asia. The El Niño-associated equatorial anomalies can be expanded towards off-equatorial regions by the C-Mode through ENSO’s interaction with the annual cycle. The C-Mode is the prime driver for the development of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the El Niño decay phase, which usually transports more moisture to East Asia and thereby causes more precipitation over southern China. We use an Atmospheric General Circulation Model that well reproduces the WNP anticyclonic anomalies when both El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as well as the SST annual cycle are prescribed as boundary conditions. However, no significant WNP anticyclonic circulation anomaly appears during the El Niño decay phase when excluding the SST annual cycle. Our analyses of observational data and model experiments suggest that the annual cycle plays a key role in the East Asian climate anomalies associated with El Niño through their nonlinear atmospheric interaction. Hence, a realistic simulation of the annual cycle is crucial in order to correctly capture the ENSO-associated climate anomalies over East Asia.

Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk)

Background: Dietary intervention studies suggest that flavan-3-ol intake can improve vascular function and reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, results from prospective studies failed to show a consistent beneficial effect. Objective: To investigate associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk arm of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Data was available from 24,885 (11,252 men; 13,633 women) participants, recruited between 1993 and 1997 into the EPIC-Norfolk study. Flavan-3-ol intake was assessed using 7-day food diaries and the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition database. Missing data for plasma cholesterol and vitamin C were imputed using multiple imputation. Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and blood pressure at baseline were determined using linear regression models. Associations with CVD risk were estimated using Cox regression analyses. Results: Median intake of total flavan-3-ols was 1034 mg/d (range: 0 – 8531 mg/d) for men and 970 mg/d (0 – 6695 mg/d) for women, median intake of flavan-3-ol monomers was 233 mg/d (0 – 3248 mg/d) for men and 217 (0 – 2712 mg/d) for women. There were no consistent associations between flavan-3-ol monomer intake and baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). After 286,147 person-years of follow up, there were 8463 cardio-vascular events and 1987 CVD related deaths; no consistent association between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk (HR 0.93, 95% CI:0.87; 1.00; Q1 vs Q5) or mortality was observed (HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.84; 1.04). Conclusions: Flavan-3-ol intake in EPIC-Norfolk is not sufficient to achieve a statistically significant reduction in CVD risk.

Impact of different El Niño types on the El Niño/IOD relationship

Previous studies reported that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to accompany El Niño during boreal autumn. Here we show that the El Niño/IOD relationship can be better understood when considering the two different El Niño flavors. Eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events exhibit a strong correlation with the IOD dependent on their magnitude. In contrast, the relationship between Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events and the IOD depends mainly on the zonal location of the sea surface temperature anomalies rather than their magnitude. CP El Niño events lying further west than normal are not accompanied by significant anomalous easterlies over the eastern Indian Ocean along the Java/Sumatra coast, which is unfavorable for the local Bjerknes feedback and correspondingly for an IOD development. The El Niño/IOD relationship has experienced substantial changes due to the recent decadal El Niño regime shift, which has important implications for seasonal prediction.

Impact of cocoa flavanol intake on age-dependent vascular stiffness in healthy men: a randomized, controlled, double-masked trial

Increased vascular stiffness, endothelial dysfunction, and isolated systolic hypertension are hallmarks of vascular aging. Regular cocoa flavanol (CF) intake can improve vascular function in healthy young and elderly at-risk individuals. However, the mechanisms underlying CF bioactivity remain largely unknown. We investigated the effects of CF intake on cardiovascular function in healthy young and elderly individuals without history, signs, or symptoms of cardiovascular disease by applying particular focus on functional endpoints relevant to cardiovascular aging. In a randomized, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial, 22 young (<35yrs) and 20 elderly (50-80yrs) healthy, male non- smokers consumed either a CF-containing drink (450mg CF) or nutrient-matched, CF-free control drink bi-daily for 14 days. The primary endpoint was endothelial function as measured by flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD). Secondary endpoints included cardiac output, vascular stiffness, conductance of conduit and resistance arteries, and perfusion in the microcirculation. Following 2 weeks of CF intake, FMD improved in young (6.1±0.7% vs. 7.6±0.7%, p<0.001) and elderly (4.9±0.6% vs. 6.3±0.9%, p<0.001). Secondary outcomes demonstrated in both groups that CF intake decreased pulse wave velocity and lowered total peripheral resistance, increased arteriolar- and microvascular vasodilator capacity, red cell deformability, and diastolic blood pressure, while cardiac output remained affected. In the elderly, baseline systolic blood pressure was elevated, driven by an arterial stiffness-related augmentation. CF intake decreased aortic augmentation index (-9%), and thus systolic blood pressure (-7mmHg). (Clinicaltrials.gov:NCT01639781) CF intake reverses age-related burden of cardiovascular risk in healthy elderly, highlighting the potential of dietary flavanols to maintain cardiovascular health.

Key bioactive reaction products of the NO/H2S interaction are S/N-hybrid species, polysulfides, and nitroxyl

Experimental evidence suggests that nitric oxide (NO) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) signaling pathways are intimately intertwined, with mutual attenuation or potentiation of biological responses in the cardiovascular system and elsewhere. The chemical basis of this interaction is elusive. Moreover, polysulfides recently emerged as potential mediators of H2S/sulfide signaling, but their biosynthesis and relationship to NO remain enigmatic. We sought to characterize the nature, chemical biology, and bioactivity of key reaction products formed in the NO/sulfide system. At physiological pH, we find that NO and sulfide form a network of cascading chemical reactions that generate radical intermediates as well as anionic and uncharged solutes, with accumulation of three major products: nitrosopersulfide (SSNO−), polysulfides, and dinitrososulfite N-nitrosohydroxylamine-N-sulfonate (SULFI/NO), each with a distinct chemical biology and in vitro and in vivo bioactivity. SSNO− is resistant to thiols and cyanolysis, efficiently donates both sulfane sulfur and NO, and potently lowers blood pressure. Polysulfides are both intermediates and products of SSNO− synthesis/decomposition, and they also decrease blood pressure and enhance arterial compliance. SULFI/NO is a weak combined NO/nitroxyl donor that releases mainly N2O on decomposition; although it affects blood pressure only mildly, it markedly increases cardiac contractility, and formation of its precursor sulfite likely contributes to NO scavenging. Our results unveil an unexpectedly rich network of coupled chemical reactions between NO and H2S/sulfide, suggesting that the bioactivity of either transmitter is governed by concomitant formation of polysulfides and anionic S/N-hybrid species. This conceptual framework would seem to offer ample opportunities for the modulation of fundamental biological processes governed by redox switching and sulfur trafficking.

Nitrosopersulfide (SSNO-) targets soluble guanylyl cyclase and induces vasodilation in vivo

Background Recent experimental evidence suggests that nitric oxide (NO) and hydrogen sulfide signaling pathways are intimately intertwined particularly in the vasculature, with mutual attenuation or potentiation of biological responses under control of the soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) / phopshodiesterase (PDE) pathway. There is now compelling evidence that part of the NO/sulfide cross talk has a chemical foundation via the formation of S/N-hybrid molecules including thionitrous acid (HSNO) and nitrosopersulfde (SSNO-). The aim of this study was to characterize the bioactive products of the interaction between sulfide and NO metabolites targeting sGC that may potentially regulate vasodilation. Results We found that the chemical interaction of sulfide with NO or nitrosothiols leads to formation of S/N-hybrid metabolites including SSNO- via intermediate formation of HSNO. Contrary to a recent report in the literature but consistent with the transient nature of HSNO, its formation was not detectable by high-resolution mass spectrometry under physiologically relevant conditions. SSNO- is also formed in non-aqueous media by the reaction of nitrite with oxidized sulfur species including colloidal sulfur and polysulfides. SSNO- is stable in the presence of high concentrations of thiols, release NO, and activates sGC in RFL-6 cells in an NO-dependent fashion. Moreover, SSNO- is a potent vasodilator in aortic rings in vitro and lowers blood pressure in rats in vivo. The presence of high concentrations of SOD or thiols does not affect SSNO- mediated sGC activation, while it potentiates and inhibits the effects of the nitroxyl (HNO) donor Angeli's salt, suggesting that HNO release from SSNO- is not involved in sGC activation. Conclusion The reaction between NO and sulfide leads to fomation of S/N-hybrid molecules including SSNO-, releasing NO, activating sGC and inducing vasodilation. SSNO- is considerably more stable than HSNO at pH 7.4 and thus a more likely biological mediator that can account for the chemical cross-talk between NO and sulfide.

Cocoa flavanol intake improves endothelial function and Framingham Risk Score in healthy men and women: a randomised, controlled, double-masked trial: the Flaviola Health Study

Cocoa flavanol (CF) intake improves endothelial function in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. We investigated the effects of CF on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in low risk, healthy, middle-aged individuals without history, signs or symptoms of CVD. In a 1-month, open-label, one-armed pilot study, bi-daily ingestion of 450 mg of CF led to a time-dependent increase in endothelial function (measured as flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD)) that plateaued after 2 weeks. Subsequently, in a randomised, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01799005), 100 healthy, middle-aged (35–60 years) men and women consumed either the CF-containing drink (450 mg) or a nutrient-matched CF-free control bi-daily for 1 month. The primary end point was FMD. Secondary end points included plasma lipids and blood pressure, thus enabling the calculation of Framingham Risk Scores and pulse wave velocity. At 1 month, CF increased FMD over control by 1·2 % (95 % CI 1·0, 1·4 %). CF decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4·4 mmHg (95 % CI 7·9, 0·9 mmHg) and 3·9 mmHg (95 % CI 6·7, 0·9 mmHg), pulse wave velocity by 0·4 m/s (95 % CI 0·8, 0·04 m/s), total cholesterol by 0·20 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·39, 0·01 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·32, 0·02 mmol/l), whereas HDL-cholesterol increased by 0·10 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·04, 0·17 mmol/l). By applying the Framingham Risk Score, CF predicted a significant lowering of 10-year risk for CHD, myocardial infarction, CVD, death from CHD and CVD. In healthy individuals, regular CF intake improved accredited cardiovascular surrogates of cardiovascular risk, demonstrating that dietary flavanols have the potential to maintain cardiovascular health even in low-risk subjects.

Interactions between cocoa flavanols and inorganic nitrate: additive effects on endothelial function at achievable dietary amounts

Dietary intervention studies have shown that flavanols and inorganic nitrate can improve vascular function, suggesting that these two bioactives may be responsible for beneficial health effects of diets rich in fruits and vegetables. We aimed to study interactions between cocoa flavanols (CF) and nitrate, focusing on absorption, bioavailability, excretion, and efficacy to increase endothelial function. In a double-blind randomized, dose-response crossover study, flow-mediated dilation (FMD) was measured in 15 healthy subjects before and at 1, 2, 3, and 4 h after consumption of CF (1.4-10.9 mg/kg bw) or nitrate (0.1-10 mg/kg bw). To study flavanol-nitrate interactions, an additional intervention trial was performed with nitrate and CF taken in sequence at low and high amounts. FMD was measured before (0 h) and at 1h after ingestion of nitrate (3 or 8.5 mg/kg bw) or water. Then subjects received a CF drink (2.7 or 10.9 mg/kg bw) or a micro- and macronutrient-matched CF-free drink. FMD was measured at 1, 2, and 4 h thereafter. Blood and urine samples were collected and assessed for CF and nitric oxide (NO) metabolites with HPLC and gas-phase reductive chemiluminescence. Finally, intragastric formation of NO after CF and nitrate consumption was investigated. Both CF and nitrate induced similar intake-dependent increases in FMD. Maximal values were achieved at 1 h postingestion and gradually decreased to reach baseline values at 4 h. These effects were additive at low intake levels, whereas CF did not further increase FMD after high nitrate intake. Nitrate did not affect flavanol absorption, bioavailability, or excretion, but CF enhanced nitrate-related gastric NO formation and attenuated the increase in plasma nitrite after nitrate intake. Both flavanols and inorganic nitrate can improve endothelial function in healthy subjects at intake amounts that are achievable with a normal diet. Even low dietary intake of these bioactives may exert relevant effects on endothelial function when ingested together.