38 resultados para average causal effect

em CentAUR: Central Archive University of Reading - UK


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To investigate the relative importance of instream nutrient spiralling and wetland transformation processes on surface water quality, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in a 200 m reach of the River Lambourn in the south-east of England were monitored over a 2-year period. In addition, the soil pore water nutrient dynamics in a riparian ecosystem adjacent to the river were investigated. Analysis of variance indicated that TN, TP and suspended sediment concentrations recorded upstream of the wetland were statistically significantly higher (P<0.05) than those downstream of the site. Such results suggest that the wetland was performing a nutrient retention function. Indeed, analysis of soil pore waters within the site show that up to 85% of TN and 70% of TP was removed from water flowing through the wetland during baseflow conditions, thus supporting the theory that the wetland played an important role in the regulation of surface water quality at the site. However, the small variations observed (0.034 mg TN l-1 and 0.031 mg P l-1) are consistent with the theory of nutrient spiralling suggesting that both instream and wetland retention processes have a causal effect on surface water quality.

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The Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment (MDVE) is a randomized social experiment with imperfect compliance which has been extremely influential in how police officers respond to misdemeanor domestic violence. This paper re-examines data from the MDVE, using recent literature on partial identification to find recidivism associated with a policy that arrests misdemeanor domestic violence suspects rather than not arresting them. Using partially identified bounds on the average treatment effect I find that arresting rather than not arresting suspects can potentially reduce recidivism by more than two-and-a-half times the corresponding intent-to-treat estimate and more than two times the corresponding local average treatment effect, even when making minimal assumptions on counterfactuals.

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he construction market around the world has witnessed the growing eminence of construction professional services (CPSs), such as urban planning, architecture, engineering, and consultancy, while the traditional contracting sector remains strong. Nowadays, it is not uncommon to see a design firm taking over the work of a traditional main contractor, or vice versa, of overseeing the delivery of a project. Although the two sectors of contracting and CPS share the same purpose of materializing the built environment, they are as different as they are interrelated. Much has been mentioned about the nexus between the two but little has been done to articulate it using empirical evidence. This study examined the nexus between contracting and CPS businesses by offering and testing lead-lag effects between the two sectors in the international market. A longitudinal panel data composed of 23 top international contractors and CPS firms was adopted. Surprisingly, results of the panel data analyses show that CPS business does not have a significant positive causal effect on contracting as a downstream business, and vice versa. CPS and contracting subsidiaries, although within the same company, do not necessarily form a consortium to undertake the same project; rather, they often collaborate with other CPS or contracting counterparts to undertake projects. This paper provides valuable insights into the sophisticated nexus between contracting and CPS in the international construction market. It will support business executives’ rational decision making for selecting proper contracting or CPS allies, or a proper mergers and acquisitions strategy in the international market. The paper also provides a fresh perspective through which researchers can better investigate the diversification strategies adopted by international contracting and CPS firms.

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One goal in the development of distributed virtual environments (DVEs) is to create a system such that users are unaware of the distribution-the distribution should be transparent. The paper begins by discussing the general issues in DVEs that might make this possible, and a system that allows some level of distribution transparency is described. The system described suffers from effects of inconsistency, which in turn cause undesirable visual effects. The causal surface is introduced as a solution that removes these visual effects. The paper then introduces two determining factors of distribution transparency relating to user perception and performance. With regard to these factors, two hypotheses are stated relating to the causal surface. A user-trial on forty-five subjects is used to validate the hypotheses. A discussion of the results of the trial concludes that the causal surface solution does significantly improve the distribution transparency in a DVE.

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The development of large scale virtual reality and simulation systems have been mostly driven by the DIS and HLA standards community. A number of issues are coming to light about the applicability of these standards, in their present state, to the support of general multi-user VR systems. This paper pinpoints four issues that must be readdressed before large scale virtual reality systems become accessible to a larger commercial and public domain: a reduction in the effects of network delays; scalable causal event delivery; update control; and scalable reliable communication. Each of these issues is tackled through a common theme of combining wall clock and causal time-related entity behaviour, knowledge of network delays and prediction of entity behaviour, that together overcome many of the effects of network delay.

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The development of large scale virtual reality and simulation systems have been mostly driven by the DIS and HLA standards community. A number of issues are coming to light about the applicability of these standards, in their present state, to the support of general multi-user VR systems. This paper pinpoints four issues that must be readdressed before large scale virtual reality systems become accessible to a larger commercial and public domain: a reduction in the effects of network delays; scalable causal event delivery; update control; and scalable reliable communication. Each of these issues is tackled through a common theme of combining wall clock and causal time-related entity behaviour, knowledge of network delays and prediction of entity behaviour, that together overcome many of the effects of network delays.

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Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) plants were grown in split pots in three Rothamsted soils with different soil pH values and phosphorus (P) contents. Ammonium addition resulted in higher plant dry weight and P content than comparable nitrate treatments. The pH of soils in the rhizosphere (0.51-mm average thickness) differed from the bulk soil depending on nitrogen (N) form and level. Ammonium application resulted in a pH decrease, but nitrate application slightly increased pH. To examine the effect of rhizosphere acidification on mobilization of phosphate, 0.5 M NaHCO3 extractable phosphate was measured. The lowering rhizosphere pH enhanced the solubility of P in the soil and maybe availability of P to plants. Rhizosphere-P depletion increased with increasing ammonium supply, but when N was supplied as nitrate, P depletion was not related to increasing nitrate supply. Low P status Hoosfield soils developed mycorrhizal infection., and as a result, P inflow was increased. Geescroft soil, which initially had a high P status, did not develop mycorrhizal infection, and P inflow was much smaller and was unaffected by N treatments. Therefore, plant growth and P uptake were influenced by both rhizosphere pH and indigenous mycorrhizal infection.

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Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) changes have been suggested to affect weather and climate, and new evidence is presented here directly linking GCRs with clouds. Clouds increase the diffuse solar radiation, measured continuously at UK surface meteorological sites since 1947. The ratio of diffuse to total solar radiation-the diffuse fraction, (DF)-is used to infer cloud, and is compared with the daily mean neutron count rate measured at Climax; Colorado from 1951-2000, which provides a globally representative indicator of cosmic rays. Across the UK, oil days of high cosmic ray flux (above 3600 X 10(2) neutron counts h(-1), which occur 87% of the time on average) compared with low cosmic ray flux, (i) the chance of an overcast day increases by (19 +/- 4)%; and (ii) the diffuse fraction increases by (2 +/- 0.3)%. During sudden transient reductions in cosmic rays (e.g. Forbush events), simultaneous decreases occur in the diffuse fraction. The diffuse radiation changes are; therefore; unambiguously due to cosmic rays. Although the statistically significant nonlinear cosmic ray effect is small, it will have a considerably larger aggregate effect on longer timescale (e.g. centennial) climate variations when day-to-day variability averages out.

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Accumulation of surplus phosphorus (P) in the soil and the resulting increased transport of P in land runoff contribute to freshwater eutrophication. The effects of increasing soil P (19–194 mg Olsen-P (OP) kg−1) on the concentrations of particulate P (PP), and sorption properties (Qmax, k and EPCo) of suspended solids (SS) in overland flow from 15 unreplicated field plots established on a dispersive arable soil were measured over three monitoring periods under natural rainfall. Concentrations of PP in plot runoff increased linearly at a rate of 2.6 μg litre−1 per mg OP kg−1 of soil, but this rate was approximately 50% of the rate of increase in dissolved P (< 0.45 μm). Concentrations of SS in runoff were similar across all plots and contained a greater P sorption capacity (mean + 57%) than the soil because of enrichment with fine silt and clay (0.45–20 μm). As soil P increased, the P enrichment ratio of the SS declined exponentially, and the values of P saturation (Psat; 15–42%) and equilibrium P concentration (EPCo; 0.7–5.5 mg litre−1) in the SS fell within narrower ranges compared with the soils (6–74% and 0.1–10 mg litre−1, respectively). When OP was < 100 mg kg−1, Psat and EPCo values in the SS were smaller than those in the soil and vice-versa, suggesting that eroding particles from soils with both average and high P fertility would release P on entering the local (Rosemaund) stream. Increasing soil OP from average to high P fertility increased the P content of the SS by approximately 10%, but had no significant (P > 0.05) effect on the Psat, or EPCo, of the SS. Management options to reduce soil P status as a means of reducing P losses in land runoff and minimizing eutrophication risk may therefore have more limited effect than is currently assumed in catchment management.

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The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The effect of variety, agronomic and environmental factors on the chemical composition and energy value for ruminants and non-ruminants of husked and naked oats grain was studied. Winter oats were grown as experimental plots in each of 2 years on three sites in England. At each site two conventional husked oat cultivars (Gerald and Image) and two naked cultivars (Kynon and Pendragon) were grown. At each site, crops were sown on two dates and all crops were grown with the application of either zero or optimum fertiliser nitrogen. Variety and factors contained within the site + year effect had the greatest influence on the chemical composition and nutritive value of oats, followed by nitrogen ferfiliser treatment. For example, compared with zero nitrogen, the optimum nitrogen fertiliser treatment resulted in a consistent and significant (P < 0.001) increase in crude protein for all varieties at all sites from an average of 95 to 118 g kg(-1) DM, increased the potassium concentration in all varieties from an average of 4.9 to 5.1 g kg(-1) DM (P < 0.01) and reduced total lipid by a small but significant (P < 0.001) amount. Optimum nitrogen increased (P < 0.001) the NDF concentration in the two husked varieties and in the naked variety Pendragon. Naked cultivars were lower in fibre, had considerably higher energy, total lipid, linoleic acid, protein, starch and essential amino acids than the husked cultivars. Thus nutritionists need to be selective in their choice of naked or husked oat depending on the intended dietary use. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Clinical and biomedical studies have provided evidence for the critical role of n-3 fatty acids on the reduction of chronic disease risk in humans, including cardiovascular disease. In the current experiment, the potential to enhance milk n-3 content in two breeds with inherent genetic differences in mammary lipogenesis and de novo fatty acid synthesis was examined using extruded linseeds. Six lactating cows (three Holstein and three Jersey) were used in a two-treatment switchback design with 3 × 21-day experimental periods to evaluate the effect of iso-energetic replacement of calcium salts of palm oil distillate (CPO) in the diet (34 g/kg dry matter (DM)) with 100 g/kg DM extruded linseeds (LIN). For both breeds, replacing CPO with LIN had no effect (P > 0.05) on DM intake or milk yield, but reduced (P < 0.05) milk fat and protein yield (on average, from 760 to 706 and 573 to 552 g/day, respectively). Relative to CPO, the LIN treatment reduced (P < 0.01) total saturated fatty acid content and enhanced (P < 0.001) 18:3n-3 in milk, whereas breed by diet interactions were significant for milk fat 16:0, total trans fatty acid and conjugated linoleic acid concentrations. Increases in 18:3n-3 intake derived from LIN in the diet were transferred into milk with a mean marginal transfer efficiency of 1.8%. Proportionate changes in milk fatty acid composition were greater in the Jersey, highlighting the importance of diet–genotype interactions on mammary lipogenesis. More extensive studies are required to determine the role of genotype on milk fat composition responses to oilseeds in the diet.

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This study compared the effect of supplementing maize stover (MS) with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) haulms or commercial concentrate (CC) on feed intake, nutrient digestibility, live weight gain and carcass yield of male Ethiopian Highland sheep. Two cowpea genotypes, 12688 (forage) and IT96D-774 (dual-purpose), were used. A randomised block design was applied with groups of eight sheep, blocked by weight, allocated to one of six treatments; MS ad libitum either unsupplemented or supplemented daily with 150 or 300g dry matter (DM) of either cowpea or CC. MS contained more neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and lignin than either cowpeas or CC Crude protein (CP) content of the forage-type cowpeas was higher than either dual-purpose or CC, while MS had the lowest CP content Relative to the negative control group, cowpea at either level significantly (P < 0.01) increased both MS intake and total NDF and lignin. Supplementation significantly (P < 0.01) increased nitrogen (N) intakes relative to the negative control, with N intake for CC and dual-purpose cowpea (high level) being similar to the intakes for cowpeas at 150g. N intake with the forage-type cowpea offered at higher levels was significantly (P < 0.01) greater than the other groups. No significant differences (P > 0.01) in MS intake were identified between cowpeas at either level or CC and, although intake level of CC increased, it did not differ significantly from the negative control group. Supplementation significantly (P < 0.01) improved average daily gain, with the negative control group losing weight over the experimental period, and increased final live weight, carcass cold weight and dressing percentage. Supplementation significantly improved the apparent digestibility of DM, organic matter and NDF, with no significant difference found between cowpeas at either level. N retention was negative for sheep offered only MS, but positive with all supplements, with cowpeas improving N retention to a greater extent than CC. Interestingly, N retention/N intake was higher with cowpeas offered at the lower level suggesting an improvement in utilisation efficiency. The results indicate that the supplementation of MS with cowpea enhanced ruminant production through improvements in digestibility and intake. Further, as production improvements associated with the two levels of supplementation did not differ significantly, it is suggested that where limited quantities of cowpea are available, it may be of greater nutritional benefit to offer smaller quantities over an increased number of animal days.

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Several tissue types of Lupinus albus L. were investigated as sources for the isolation of protoplasts. Cotyledons from in vitro seedlings were found to yield the highest number of protoplasts compared with leaves, hypocotyls and roots. A combination of the protoplast isolation enzymes, cellulase and Pectolyase Y23, was capable of releasing the highest number of protoplasts compared with a combination of cellulase and Macerase. Protoplast yield increased with increasing cotyledon age but was accompanied by a progressive decline in protoplast viability. The optimal combination of protoplast yield and viability occurred when the protoplasts were isolated from 14- to 18-day-old cotyledons. The ratio between the volume of enzyme solution and the tissue biomass did not affect the protoplast production significantly. This is the first report of the isolation of protoplasts from a lupin cotyledon and, following the procedure described in this paper, an average yield of 1.2 x 10(6) protoplasts per gram of fresh tissue was obtainable.

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The increase in fractional rate of protein synthesis (K-s) in the skeletal muscle of growing rats during the transition from fasted to fed state has been explained by the synergistic action of a rise in plasma insulin and branched-chain amino acids (BCAA). Since growing lambs Also exhibit an increase in K-s with level of feed intake, the objective of the present study was to determine if this synergistic relationship between insulin and BCAA also occurs in ruminant animals. Six 30 kg fasted (72 h) lambs (8 months of age) received each of four treatments, which were based on continuous infusion into the jugular vein for 6 h of: (1) saline (155 mmol NaCl/l); (2) a mixture of BCAA (0.778 mumol leucine, 0.640 mumol isoleucine and 0.693 mumol valine/min.kg); (3) 18.7 mumol glucose/min.kg (to induce endogenous insulin secretion): (4) co-infusion of BCAA and glucose. Within each period all animals received the same isotope of phenylalanine, (Phe) as follows: (1) L-[1-C-13]Phe; (2) L-phenyl-[ring H-2(5)]-alanine; (3) L-[N-15]Phe; (4) L-[ring 2,6-H-3]Phe. Blood was sampled serially during infusions to measure plasma concentrations of insulin, glucose and amino acids, and plasma free Phe isotopic activity; biopsies were taken 6 h after the beginning of infusions to determine K-s in in. longissimus dorsi and vastus muscle. Compared with control (saline-infused) lambs, K-s was increased by an average of 40% at the end of glucose infusion, but this effect was not statistically significant in either of the muscles sampled. BCAA infusion, alone or in combination with glucose, also had no significant effect on K-s compared with control sheep. K-s was approximately 60% greater for vastus muscle than for m. longissimus dorsi (P<0.01), regardless of treatment. It is concluded that there are signals other than insulin and BCAA that are responsible for the feed-induced increase in K-s in muscle of growing ruminant animals.