Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

Rock art and social life - Revisiting the Neolithic transition in Mediterranean Iberia

This article revisits the Neolithic transition in Mediterranean Iberia taking into account an aspect usually neglected in the archaeological discourse: the rock art styles that emerged in this context. These distinct styles have been generally attributed to different populations, according to a historicist point of view that equates stylistic variability and ethnic identity. However, the recent recognition that they were developed by the same social group requires the formulation of an alternative explanation. My proposal is based on the exploration of the social context of production and consumption of the rock art, through the analysis of the patterns of location of the sites within the landscape and the definition of their archaeological context.

Water quality and ecology of the River Lee: mass balance and a review of temporal and spatial data

A regional overview of the water quality and ecology of the River Lee catchment is presented. Specifically, data describing the chemical, microbiological and macrobiological water quality and fisheries communities have been analysed, based on a division into river, sewage treatment works, fish-farm, lake and industrial samples. Nutrient enrichment and the highest concentrations of metals and micro-organics were found in the urbanised, lower reaches of the Lee and in the Lee Navigation. Average annual concentrations of metals were generally within environmental quality standards although, oil many occasions, concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc were in excess of the standards. Various organic substances (used as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chlorination by-products and industrial solvents) were widely detected in the Lee system. Concentrations of ten micro-organic substances were observed in excess of their environmental quality standards, though not in terms of annual averages. Sewage treatment works were the principal point source input of nutrients. metals and micro-organic determinands to the catchment. Diffuse nitrogen sources contributed approximately 60% and 27% of the in-stream load in the upper and lower Lee respectively, whereas approximately 60% and 20% of the in-stream phosphorus load was derived from diffuse sources in the upper and lower Lee. For metals, the most significant source was the urban runoff from North London. In reaches less affected by effluent discharges, diffuse runoff from urban and agricultural areas dominated trends. Flig-h microbiological content, observed in the River Lee particularly in urbanised reaches, was far in excess of the EC Bathing Water Directive standards. Water quality issues and degraded habitat in the lower reaches of the Lee have led to impoverished aquatic fauna but, within the mid-catchment reaches and upper agricultural tributaries, less nutrient enrichment and channel alteration has permitted more diverse aquatic fauna.

Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agro-ecology

Answering many of the critical questions in conservation, development and environmental management requires integrating the social and natural sciences. However, understanding the array of available quantitative methods and their associated terminology presents a major barrier to successful collaboration. We provide an overview of quantitative socio-economic methods that distils their complexity into a simple taxonomy. We outline how each has been used in conjunction with ecological models to address questions relating to the management of socio-ecological systems. We review the application of social and ecological quantitative concepts to agro-ecology and classify the approaches used to integrate the two disciplines. Our review included all published integrated models from 2003 to 2008 in 27 journals that publish agricultural modelling research. Although our focus is on agro-ecology, many of the results are broadly applicable to other fields involving an interaction between human activities and ecology. We found 36 papers that integrated social and ecological concepts in a quantitative model. Four different approaches to integration were used, depending on the scale at which human welfare was quantified. Most models viewed humans as pure profit maximizers, both when calculating welfare and predicting behaviour. Synthesis and applications. We reached two main conclusions based on our taxonomy and review. The first is that quantitative methods that extend predictions of behaviour and measurements of welfare beyond a simple market value basis are underutilized by integrated models. The second is that the accuracy of prediction for integrated models remains largely unquantified. Addressing both problems requires researchers to reach a common understanding of modelling goals and data requirements during the early stages of a project.

Phylogeny, biogeography, and ecology of Ficus section Malvanthera (Moraceae)

We conducted the first molecular phylogenetic study of Ficus section Malvanthera (Moraceae; subgenus Urostigma) based on 32 Malvanthera accessions and seven outgroups representing other sections of Ficus subgenus Urostigma. We used DNA sequences from the nuclear ribosomal internal and external transcribed spacers (ITS and ETS), and the glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (G3pdh) region. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods recovered a monophyletic section Malvanthera to the exclusion of the rubber fig, Ficus elastica. The results of the phylogenetic analyses do not conform to any previously proposed taxonomic subdivision of the section and characters used for previous classification are homoplasious. Geographic distribution, however, is highly conserved and Melanesian Malvanthera are monophyletic. A new subdivision of section Malvanthera reflecting phylogenetic relationships is presented. Section Malvanthera likely diversified during a period of isolation in Australia and subsequently colonized New Guinea. Two Australian series are consistent with a pattern of dispersal out of rainforest habitat into drier habitats accompanied by a reduction in plant height during the transition from hemi-epiphytic trees to lithophytic trees and shrubs. In contradiction with a previous study of Pleistodontes phylogeny suggesting multiple changes in pollination behaviour, reconstruction of changes in pollination behaviour on Malvanthera, suggests only one or a few gains of active pollination within the section. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.