Storm tracking and ensemble prediction

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) is investigated using a storm-tracking forecast verifica-tion methodology. The cyclones are identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories so that statistics can be generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted cyclones diverge from the corresponding analysed cyclones with forecast time. Overall the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of performance than the NCEP EPS. However, in the southern hemisphere the NCEP EPS has a slightly higher level of skill for the intensity of the storms. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. The results also illustrate several benefits an EPS can offer over a deterministic forecast.

Storm Tracking and eScience

A new 'storm-tracking approach' to analysing the prediction of storms by different forecast systems has recently been developed. This paper provides a brief illustration of the type of results/information that can be obtained using the approach. It also describes in detail how eScience methodologies have been used to help apply the storm-tracking approach to very large datasets

Phosphorus sorption and availability in soils amended with animal manures and sewage sludge

Soils that receive large applications of animal wastes and sewage sludge are vulnerable to releasing environmentally significant concentrations of dissolved P available to subsurface flow owing to the gradual saturation of the soil's P sorption capacity. This study evaluated P sorption (calculated from Langmuir isotherms) and availability of P (as CaCl2-P and resin P) in soils incubated for 20 d with poultry litter, poultry manure, cattle slurry, municipal sewage sludge, or KH2PO4, added on a P-equivalent basis (100 mg P kg(-1)). All the P sources had a marked negative effect on P sorption and a positive effect on P availability in all soils. In the cattle slurry- and KH2PO4- treated soils, the decreases in P sorption maximum (19-66%) and binding energy (25-89%) were consistently larger than the corresponding decreases (7-41% and 11-30%) in poultry litter-, poultry manure-, and sewage sludge-treated soils. The effects of cattle slurry and KH2PO4 on P availability were, in most cases, larger than those of the other P sources. In the poultry litter, poultry manure, and sewage sludge treatments, the increase in soil solution P was inversely related (R-2 = 0.75) to the input of Ca from these relatively high Ca (13.5-42 g kg(-1)) sources. Correlation analyses implied that the magnitude of the changes in P sorption and availability was not related to the water-extractable P content of the P sources. Future research on the sustainable application of organic wastes to agricultural soils needs to consider the non-P- as well as P-containing components of the waste.

Differences in phosphorus retention and release in soils amended with animal manures and sewage sludge

Excessive levels of P in agricultural soils pose a threat to local water quality. This study evaluated (i) time-dependent changes in soil P sorption (expressed as a phosphorus sorption index, PSI) and P availability (as resin P) during incubation (100 d) with poultry litter, cattle slurry, sewage sludge, or KH2PO4, added on a P-equivalent basis (100 mg P kg(-1)), and (ii) the subsequent kinetics of P release, measured by repeated extractions with a mixed cation-anion exchange resin. Soil exchangeable Ca and ammonium oxalate-extractable Fe and Al were also determined at 100 d of incubation. The small decrease in P sorption in the litter and sludge treatments (25%), compared with that in the slurry and KH2PO4 treatments (52%) between 20 and 100 d of incubation was attributed partly to the formation of new adsorption sites for P. Subsequent P release was described by a power equation: Resin P = a(extraction number)(b), where the constants a and b represent resin P obtained with a single extraction and the rate of P release per resin extraction, respectively. On average, the rate of P release decreased in the order: KH2PO4 and slurry > litter > sludge, and was inversely related to exchangeable Ca content of the incubated soils (R-2 = 0.57). The slower rates of P release in the litter and sludge treatments (P < 0.001) are attributed to the large values for exchangeable Ca (1050-2640 and 1070-2710 mg kg(-1), respectively) in these amended soils. Future research concerned with short-term declines in environmentally harmful levels of P in recently amended soils should consider the differential effects of the amendments on soil P dynamics.

Predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption: from nutrient requirement to animal response and environmental impact

Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution. The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data. Empirical models lack the biological basis necessary to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce excretion of waste, including nitrogen, phosphorus and methane. Such models may have little predictive value when comparing various feeding strategies. Examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II models to quantify methane emissions and current protein evaluation systems to evaluate low protein diets to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment. Nutrient based mechanistic models can address such issues. Since environmental issues generally attract more funding from governmental offices, further development of nutrient based models may well take place within an environmental framework.

Animal nutrition and lipids in animal products and their contribution to human intake and health

Few EU countries meet targets for saturated fatty acid (SFA) intake. Dairy products usually represent the single largest source of SFA, yet evidence indicates that milk has cardioprotective properties. Options for replacing some of the SFA in milk fat with cis-monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) through alteration of the cow’s diet are examined. Also, few people achieve minimum recommended intakes (~450–500 mg/d) of the long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Enrichment of EPA+DHA in poultry meat via bird nutrition is described and how this would impact on habitual intake is discussed.

Animal health and welfare in organic livestock production in Europe: Current state and future challenges

Existing data on animal health and welfare in organic livestock production systems in the European Community countries are reviewed in the light of the demands and challenges of the recently implemented EU regulation on organic livestock production. The main conclusions and recommendations of a three-year networking project on organic livestock production are summarised and the future challenges to organic livestock production in terms of welfare and health management are discussed. The authors conclude that, whilst the available data are limited and the implementation of the EC regulation is relatively recent, there is little evidence to suggest that organic livestock management causes major threats to animal health and welfare in comparison with conventional systems. There are, however, some well-identified areas, like parasite control and balanced ration formulation, where efforts are needed to find solutions that meet with organic standard requirements and guarantee high levels of health and welfare. It is suggested that, whilst organic standards offer an implicit framework for animal health and welfare management, there is a need to solve apparent conflicts between the organic farming objectives in regard to environment, public health, farmer income and animal health and welfare. The key challenges for the future of organic livestock production in Europe are related to the feasibility of implementing improved husbandry inputs and the development of evidence-based decision support systems for health and feeding management.

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Tannin-containing plants for animal nutrition and health

Abstract 13.12.1