The first real-time worldwide ionospheric predictions network: an advance in support of spaceborne experimentation, on-line model validation, and space weather

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and "in situ" electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the "in situ" observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multimodel mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISSPUCCINI)and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23Wm−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08Wm−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05Wm−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05Wm−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1Wm−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

Using standby generators in support of an electricity network: logistics and experience

Electricity load shifting is becoming a big topic in the world of ‘green’ retail. Marks & Spencer (M&S) aim to become the world’s most sustainable retailer (1) and part of that commitment means contributing to the future electricity network. While intelligent operation of fridges and Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems are a wide area of research, standby generators should be considered too, as they are the most widely adopted form of distributed generation. In this paper, the experience of using standby generators in Northern Ireland to support the grid is shared and the logistics of future projects are discussed. Interactions with maintenance schedules, electricity costs, grid code, staffing and store opening times are discussed as well as the financial implications associated with running generators for grid support.

Development and exploitation of a controlled vocabulary in support of climate modelling

There are three key components for developing a metadata system: a container structure laying out the key semantic issues of interest and their relationships; an extensible controlled vocabulary providing possible content; and tools to create and manipulate that content. While metadata systems must allow users to enter their own information, the use of a controlled vocabulary both imposes consistency of definition and ensures comparability of the objects described. Here we describe the controlled vocabulary (CV) and metadata creation tool built by the METAFOR project for use in the context of describing the climate models, simulations and experiments of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CV and resulting tool chain introduced here is designed for extensibility and reuse and should find applicability in many more projects.

Financial implications for companies running standby generators in support of a smart grid

Integrating renewable energy into built environments requires additional attention to the balancing of supply and demand due to their intermittent nature. Demand Side Response (DSR) has the potential to make money for organisations as well as support the System Operator as the generation mix changes. There is an opportunity to increase the use of existing technologies in order to manage demand. Company-owned standby generators are a rarely used resource; their maintenance schedule often accounts for a majority of their running hours. DSR encompasses a range of technologies and organisations; Sustainability First (2012) suggest that the System Operator (SO), energy supply companies, Distribution Network Operators (DNOs), Aggregators and Customers all stand to benefit from DSR. It is therefore important to consider impact of DSR measures to each of these stakeholders. This paper assesses the financial implications of organisations using existing standby generation equipment for DSR in order to avoid peak electricity charges. It concludes that under the current GB electricity pricing structure, there are several regions where running diesel generators at peak times is financially beneficial to organisations. Issues such as fuel costs, Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) charges, maintenance costs and electricity prices are discussed.

DISTRIBUTION OF Cr, Pb, Cu, Cd AND Zn IN SEDIMENTS OF THE DOBCZYCE DAM RESERVOIR (SOUTHERN POLAND)

Sediments play a fundamental role in the behaviour of contaminants in aquatic systems. Various processes in sediments, eg adsorption-desorption, oxidation-reduction, ion exchange or biological activities, can cause accumulation or release of metals and anions from the bottom of reservoirs, and have been recently studied in Polish waters [1-3]. Sediment samples from layer A: (1 divided by 6 cm depth in direct contact with bottom water); layer B: (7 divided by 12 cm depth moderate contact); and layer C: (12+ cm depth, in theory an inactive layer) were collected in September 2007 from six sites representing different types of hydrological conditions along the Dobczyce Reservoir (Fig. l). Water depths at the sampling points varied from 3.5 to 21 m. We have focused on studying the distribution and accumulation of several heavy metals (Cr, Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn) in the sediments. The surface, bottom and pore water (extracted from sediments by centrifugation) samples were also collected. Possible relationships between the heavy-metal distribution in sediments and the sediment characteristics (mineralogy, organic matter) as well as the Fe, Mn and Ca content of sediments, have been studied. The 02 concentrations in water samples were also measured. The heavy metals in sediments ranged from 19.0 to 226.3 mg/kg of dry mass (ppm). The results show considerable variations in heavy-metal concentrations between the 6 stations, but not in the individual layers (A, B, C). These variations are related to the mineralogy and chemical composition of the sediments and their pore waters.

Uneven distribution of nutrients in the root zone affects the incidence of blossom end rot and concentration of calcium and potassium in fruits of tomato

Tomato plants ( Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. var. DRK) were grown hydroponically to determine the effect of an uneven distribution of nutrients in the root zone on blossomend rot (BER) and Ca and K concentrations in the fruits. The plants were grown in rockwool with their root system divided into two portions. Each portion was irrigated with nutrient solutions with either the same or the different electrical conductivity (EC) in the range 0 to 6 dS m(-1). Solutions with high EC supplied to both sides of the root system significantly increased the incidence of BER. However, when only water or a solution of low EC was supplied to one portion, BER was reduced by 80%. Fruit yields were significantly higher ( P < 0.01) for plants that received solutions of the uneven EC treatments (6/0 or 4.5/0 EC treatment). Plants supplied with solutions of uneven EC generally had higher leaf and fruit concentrations of Ca but lower concentrations of K than those supplied with solutions of high EC. There was no difference in Ca concentration at the distal end of young fruits of the uneven EC treatment but it was reduced in the high EC treatments. The concentration of K in the mature fruits of the uneven EC treatments was lower than that of the high EC treatments and higher or similar that of the 3/3 or 2.5/2.5 EC treatments ( controls). A clear relationship was found between the incidence of BER and the exudation rate. High rate of xylem exudation was observed in the uneven EC treatments. Reduction of BER in the uneven EC treatments is most likely to be the effect of high exudation rate on Ca status in the young fruits. It was concluded that high EC of solution had positive effects on Ca concentration and incidence of BER provided that nutrient solution with low EC or water is supplied to the one portion of the root system.

Effects of desiccation on seed germination, cracking, fungal infection and survival in storage of Sterculia foetida L

Seeds of Sterculia foetida were tested for germination following desiccation and subsequent hermetic storage. Whereas seeds at 10.3% moisture content were intact and provided 98% germination, further desiccation reduced germination substantially. The majority of seed coats had cracked after desiccation to 5.1% moisture content. Ability to germinate was not reduced after 12 months' hermetic storage at 10.3% and 7.3% moisture content at 15 degrees C or -18 degrees C, but was reduced considerably at 5.1%. Fungal infection was detected consistently for cracked seeds in germination tests and they did not germinate. However, almost all embryos extracted from cracked seeds germinated if first disinfected with sodium hypochlorite (1%, 5 minutes). In addition. 80 -100% of disinfected extracted embryos from cracked seeds stored hermetically for 28 d at -18 degrees C or -82 degrees C with 3.3% to 6.0% moisture content, and excised embryos stored in this way, were able to germinate. Hence. failure of the very dry seeds of Sterculia foetida to germinate was not due to embryo death from desiccation but to cracking increasing susceptibility to fungal infection upon rehydration. Cracking was associated negatively and strongly with relative humidity and appears to be a mechanical consequence of substantial differences between the isotherms of whole seeds compared with cotyledons and axes.

Long-term relationships between environment and abundance in wheat of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola

Relationships between weather, agronomic factors and wheat disease abundance were examined to determine possible causes of variability on century time scales. In archived samples of wheat grain and leaves obtained from the Rothamsted Broadbalk experiment archive (1844-2003), amounts of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola DNA were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Relationships between amounts of pathogens and environmental and agronomic factors were examined by multiple regression. Wheat DNA decayed at approx. 1% yr(-1) in stored grain. No M. graminicola DNA was detected in grain samples. Fluctuations in amounts of P. nodorum in grain were related to changes in spring rainfall, summer temperature and national SO2 emission. Differences in amounts of P. nodorum between grain and leaf were related to summer temperature and spring rainfall. In leaves, annual variation in spring rainfall affected both pathogens similarly, but SO2 had opposite effects. Previous summer temperature had a highly significant effect on M. graminicola. Cultivar effects were significant only at P = 0.1. Long-term variation in P. nodorum and M. graminicola DNA in leaf and grain over the period 1844-2003 was dominated by factors related to national SO2 emissions. Annual variability was dominated by weather factors occurring over a period longer than the growing season.

Uneven distribution of nutrients in the root zone affects the incidence of blossom end rot and concentration of calcium and potassium in fruits of tomato

Tomato plants ( Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. var. DRK) were grown hydroponically to determine the effect of an uneven distribution of nutrients in the root zone on blossomend rot (BER) and Ca and K concentrations in the fruits. The plants were grown in rockwool with their root system divided into two portions. Each portion was irrigated with nutrient solutions with either the same or the different electrical conductivity (EC) in the range 0 to 6 dS m(-1). Solutions with high EC supplied to both sides of the root system significantly increased the incidence of BER. However, when only water or a solution of low EC was supplied to one portion, BER was reduced by 80%. Fruit yields were significantly higher ( P < 0.01) for plants that received solutions of the uneven EC treatments (6/0 or 4.5/0 EC treatment). Plants supplied with solutions of uneven EC generally had higher leaf and fruit concentrations of Ca but lower concentrations of K than those supplied with solutions of high EC. There was no difference in Ca concentration at the distal end of young fruits of the uneven EC treatment but it was reduced in the high EC treatments. The concentration of K in the mature fruits of the uneven EC treatments was lower than that of the high EC treatments and higher or similar that of the 3/3 or 2.5/2.5 EC treatments ( controls). A clear relationship was found between the incidence of BER and the exudation rate. High rate of xylem exudation was observed in the uneven EC treatments. Reduction of BER in the uneven EC treatments is most likely to be the effect of high exudation rate on Ca status in the young fruits. It was concluded that high EC of solution had positive effects on Ca concentration and incidence of BER provided that nutrient solution with low EC or water is supplied to the one portion of the root system.

Genetic differentiation between hosts and locations in populations of latent Botrytis cinerea in southern England

This study tested the hypothesis that aggressive, localized infections and asymptomatic systemic infections were caused by distinct specialized groups of Botrytis cinerea, using microsatellite genotypes at nine loci of 243 isolates of B. cinerea obtained from four hosts (strawberry (Fragaria ´ananassa), blackberry (Rubus fruticosus agg.), dandelion, (Taraxacum of®- cinale agg.) and primrose (Primula vulgaris)) in three regions in southern England (in the vicinities of Brighton, Reading and Bath). The populations were extremely variable, with up to 20 alleles per locus and high genic diversity. Each host in each region had a population of B. cinerea with distinctive genetic features, and there were also consistent host and regional distinctions. The B. cinerea population from strawberry was distinguished from that on other hosts, including blackberry, most notably by a common 154-bp amplicon at locus 5 (present in 35 of 77 samples) that was rare in isolates from other hosts (9¤166), and by the rarity (3¤77) of a 112-bp allele at locus 7 that was common (58¤166) in isolates from other hosts. There was signi®cant linkage disequilibrium overall within the B. cinerea populations on blackberry and strawberry, but with quite different patterns of association among isolates from the two hosts. No evidence was found for differentiation between populations of B. cinerea from systemically infected hosts and those from locally infected fruits.