A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations

There is a growing interest in using stochastic parametrizations in numerical weather and climate prediction models. Previously, Palmer (2001) outlined the issues that give rise to the need for a stochastic parametrization and the forms such a parametrization could take. In this article a method is presented that uses a comparison between a standard-resolution version and a high-resolution version of the same model to gain information relevant for a stochastic parametrization in that model. A correction term that could be used in a stochastic parametrization is derived from the thermodynamic equations of both models. The origin of the components of this term is discussed. It is found that the component related to unresolved wave-wave interactions is important and can act to compensate for large parametrized tendencies. The correction term is not proportional to the parametrized tendency. Finally, it is explained how the correction term could be used to give information about the shape of the random distribution to be used in a stochastic parametrization. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Rapid quality assessment of wheat cultivars registered in Poland using the 2-g mixograph and multivariate statistical analysis

Baking and 2-g mixograph analyses were performed for 55 cultivars (19 spring and 36 winter wheat) from various quality classes from the 2002 harvest in Poland. An instrumented 2-g direct-drive mixograph was used to study the mixing characteristics of the wheat cultivars. A number of parameters were extracted automatically from each mixograph trace and correlated with baking volume and flour quality parameters (protein content and high molecular weight glutenin subunit [HMW-GS] composition by SDS-PAGE) using multiple linear regression statistical analysis. Principal component analysis of the mixograph data discriminated between four flour quality classes, and predictions of baking volume were obtained using several selected mixograph parameters, chosen using a best subsets regression routine, giving R-2 values of 0.862-0.866. In particular, three new spring wheat strains (CHD 502a-c) recently registered in Poland were highly discriminated and predicted to give high baking volume on the basis of two mixograph parameters: peak bandwidth and 10-min bandwidth.

Structure, conduct and the stochastic volatility of food markets: theory and empirics

The relationship between price volatility and competition is examined. Atheoretic, vector auto regressions on farm prices of wheat and retail prices of derivatives (flour, bread, pasta, bulgur and cookies) are compared to results from a dynamic, simultaneous-equations model with theory-based farm-to-retail linkages. Analytical results yield insights about numbers of firms and their impacts on demand- and supply-side multipliers, but the applications to Turkish time series (1988:1-1996:12) yield mixed results.

Body-centric modelling, identification, and acceleration tracking control of a quadrotor UAV

This paper presents the mathematical development of a body-centric nonlinear dynamic model of a quadrotor UAV that is suitable for the development of biologically inspired navigation strategies. Analytical approximations are used to find an initial guess of the parameters of the nonlinear model, then parameter estimation methods are used to refine the model parameters using the data obtained from onboard sensors during flight. Due to the unstable nature of the quadrotor model, the identification process is performed with the system in closed-loop control of attitude angles. The obtained model parameters are validated using real unseen experimental data. Based on the identified model, a Linear-Quadratic (LQ) optimal tracker is designed to stabilize the quadrotor and facilitate its translational control by tracking body accelerations. The LQ tracker is tested on an experimental quadrotor UAV and the obtained results are a further means to validate the quality of the estimated model. The unique formulation of the control problem in the body frame makes the controller better suited for bio-inspired navigation and guidance strategies than conventional attitude or position based control systems that can be found in the existing literature.

Saturated salt solutions for humidity control and the survival of dry powder and oil formulations of Beauveria bassiana conidia

Oil-based formulated conidia sprayed on steel plates and conidia powder (control) of Beauveria bassiana isolate IMI 386243 were stored at temperatures from 10 to 40 degrees C in desiccators over saturated salt solutions providing relative humidities from 32 to 88%, or in hermetic storage at 40 degrees C, and moisture contents in equilibrium with 33 or 77% relative humidity. The negative semi-logarithmic relation (P < 0.005) between conidia longevity (at 40 degrees C) and equilibrium relative humidity did not differ (P > 0.25) between formulated conidia and conidia powder. Despite this, certain saturated salts provided consistently greater longevity (NaCl) and others consistently shorter longevity (KCl) for formulated conidia compared to conidia powder. These results, analysis of previous data, and comparison with hermetic storage, indicate that storage of conidia over saturated salt solutions provides inconsistent responses to environment and so may be problematic for bio-pesticide research. In hermetic storage, oil formulation was not deleterious to longevity and in the more moist environment enhanced survival periods. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Field evaluation of systemic inducing resistance chemicals at different growth stages for the control of apple (Venturia inaequalis) and pear (Venturia pirina) scab

Two field trials were conducted using established apple (Malus cv. Golden Delicious) and pear (Pyrus communis 'Williams' Bon Chretien') to assess the efficacy of three commercially available systemic inducing resistance (SIR) products, Messenger (a.i. Harpin protein), Phoenix (a.i. Potassium phosphite) and Rigel (a.i. Salicylic acid derivative) applied at four different growth stages of tree development (bud break, green cluster, 90% petal fall, early fruitlet) against the foliar pathogens Venturia inaequalis and Venturia pirina which cause apple and pear scab respectively. A conventional synthetic fungicide (penconazole) used within the UK for apple and pear scab control was included for comparison. Little efficacy as scab protectants was demonstrated when each SIR product and penconazole was applied at only two growth stages (bud break, green cluster). However when the above compounds were applied at three or more growth stages efficacy as scab protectants was confirmed. The synthetic fungicide penconazole provided greatest protection against apple and pear scab in both the 2006 and 2007 field trials. There was little difference in the magnitude of scab protection conferred by each SIR agent. Results suggest application of at least three sprays during bud break to early fruitlet formation with an appropriate SIR agent may provide a useful addition to existing methods of apple and pear scab management under field conditions. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Impedance mismatch: some differences between the way humans and robots control interaction forces

In over forty years of research robots have made very little progress still largely confined to industrial manufacture and cute toys, yet in the same period computing has followed Moores Law where the capacity double roughly every two years. So why is there no Moores Law for robots? Two areas stand out as worthy of research to speedup progress. The first is to get a greater understanding of how human and animal brains control movement, the second to build a new generation of robots that have greater haptic sense, that is a better ability to adapt to the environment as it is encountered. A remarkable property of the cognitive-motor system in humans and animals is that it is slow. Recognising an object may take 250 mS, a reaction time of 150 mS is considered fast. Yet despite this slow system we are well designed to allow contact with the world in a variety of ways. We can anticipate an encounter, use the change of force as a means of communication and ignore sensory cues when they are not relevant. A better understanding of these process has allowed us to build haptic interfaces to mimic the interaction. Emerging from this understanding are new ways to control the contact between robots, the user and the environment. Rehabilitation robotics has all the elements in the subject to not only enable and change the lives of people with disabilities, but also to facilitate revolution change in classic robotics.

Femtosecond evolution of spatially inhomogeneous carrier excitations: part 2: stochastic approach and GRID implementation

We present a stochastic approach for solving the quantum-kinetic equation introduced in Part I. A Monte Carlo method based on backward time evolution of the numerical trajectories is developed. The computational complexity and the stochastic error are investigated numerically. Variance reduction techniques are applied, which demonstrate a clear advantage with respect to the approaches based on symmetry transformation. Parallel implementation is realized on a GRID infrastructure.