Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

Linear amplification of marginally neutral baroclinic waves

Baroclinic wave development is investigated for unstable parallel shear flows in the limit of vanishing normal-mode growth rate. This development is described in terms of the propagation and interaction mechanisms of two coherent structures, called counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs). It is shown that, in this limit of vanishing normal-mode growth rate, arbitrary initial conditions produce sustained linear amplification of the marginally neutral normal mode (mNM). This linear excitation of the mNM is subsequently interpreted in terms of a resonance phenomenon. Moreover, while the mathematical character of the normal-mode problem changes abruptly as the bifurcation point in the dispersion diagram is encountered and crossed, it is shown that from an initial-value viewpoint, this transition is smooth. Consequently, the resonance interpretation remains relevant (albeit for a finite time) for wavenumbers slightly different from the ones defining cut-off points. The results are further applied to a two-layer version of the classic Eady model in which the upper rigid lid has been replaced by a simple stratosphere.

Scale-invariant moving finite elements for nonlinear partial differential equations in two dimensions

A scale-invariant moving finite element method is proposed for the adaptive solution of nonlinear partial differential equations. The mesh movement is based on a finite element discretisation of a scale-invariant conservation principle incorporating a monitor function, while the time discretisation of the resulting system of ordinary differential equations is carried out using a scale-invariant time-stepping which yields uniform local accuracy in time. The accuracy and reliability of the algorithm are successfully tested against exact self-similar solutions where available, and otherwise against a state-of-the-art h-refinement scheme for solutions of a two-dimensional porous medium equation problem with a moving boundary. The monitor functions used are the dependent variable and a monitor related to the surface area of the solution manifold. (c) 2005 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are the spatial patterns of weeds scale-invariant?

In previous empirical and modelling studies of rare species and weeds, evidence of fractal behaviour has been found. We propose that weeds in modern agricultural systems may be managed close to critical population dynamic thresholds, below which their rates of increase will be negative and where scale-invariance may be expected as a consequence. We collected detailed spatial data on five contrasting species over a period of three years in a primarily arable field. Counts in 20×20 cm contiguous quadrats, 225,000 in 1998 and 84,375 thereafter, could be re-structured into a wide range of larger quadrat sizes. These were analysed using three methods based on correlation sum, incidence and conditional incidence. We found non-trivial scale invariance for species occurring at low mean densities and where they were strongly aggregated. The fact that the scale-invariance was not found for widespread species occurring at higher densities suggests that the scaling in agricultural weed populations may, indeed, be related to critical phenomena.

Cross-species amplification and phylogenetic reconstruction using fragaria microsatellite primers

Twenty-eight microsatellite primer pairs developed from Fragaria vesca ‘Rügen’ were applied to sixteen accessions representing eight diploid Fragaria species. The number of alleles generated, the power of discrimination and the percentage of accessions where no PCR product could be amplified were calculated for each locus for the thirteen non-F. vesca accessions. A phylogeny was then generated for the species accessions sampled, using the presence or absence of alleles at the polymorphic loci as character states. Despite the problems inherent in phylogeny reconstruction from microsatellite data, the phylogeny showed some congruence with a previously published phylogeny of Fragaria, based on nucleotide sequence data. However, relationships inferred from microsatellite allele data were relatively unresolved and poorly supported. The genetic basis of allelic polymorphisms at specific loci was investigated through direct sequencing of the PCR products amplified by three primer pairs. The potential utility of sequence data generated from microsatellite loci in evolutionary studies of closely related species groups is briefly explored.

Spectrally-invariant behavior of zenith radiance around cloud edges simulated by radiative transfer

In a previous paper, we discovered a surprising spectrally-invariant relationship in shortwave spectrometer observations taken by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The relationship suggests that the shortwave spectrum near cloud edges can be determined by a linear combination of zenith radiance spectra of the cloudy and clear regions. Here, using radiative transfer simulations, we study the sensitivity of this relationship to the properties of aerosols and clouds, to the underlying surface type, and to the finite field-of-view (FOV) of the spectrometer. Overall, the relationship is mostly sensitive to cloud properties and has little sensitivity to other factors. At visible wavelengths, the relationship primarily depends on cloud optical depth regardless of cloud phase function, thermodynamic phase and drop size. At water-absorbing wavelengths, the slope of the relationship depends primarily on cloud optical depth; the intercept, by contrast, depends primarily on cloud absorbing and scattering properties, suggesting a new retrieval method for cloud drop effective radius. These results suggest that the spectrally-invariant relationship can be used to infer cloud properties near cloud edges even with insufficient or no knowledge about spectral surface albedo and aerosol properties.

Spectral invariant behavior of zenith radiance around cloud edges observed by ARM SWS

The ARM Shortwave Spectrometer (SWS) measures zenith radiance at 418 wavelengths between 350 and 2170 nm. Because of its 1-sec sampling resolution, the SWS provides a unique capability to study the transition zone between cloudy and clear sky areas. A spectral invariant behavior is found between ratios of zenith radiance spectra during the transition from cloudy to cloud-free. This behavior suggests that the spectral signature of the transition zone is a linear mixture between the two extremes (definitely cloudy and definitely clear). The weighting function of the linear mixture is a wavelength-independent characteristic of the transition zone. It is shown that the transition zone spectrum is fully determined by this function and zenith radiance spectra of clear and cloudy regions. An important result of these discoveries is that high temporal resolution radiance measurements in the clear-to-cloud transition zone can be well approximated by lower temporal resolution measurements plus linear interpolation.

Power properties if invariant tests for spatial autocorrelation in linear regression

This paper derives some exact power properties of tests for spatial autocorrelation in the context of a linear regression model. In particular, we characterize the circumstances in which the power vanishes as the autocorrelation increases, thus extending the work of Krämer (2005). More generally, the analysis in the paper sheds new light on how the power of tests for spatial autocorrelation is affected by the matrix of regressors and by the spatial structure. We mainly focus on the problem of residual spatial autocorrelation, in which case it is appropriate to restrict attention to the class of invariant tests, but we also consider the case when the autocorrelation is due to the presence of a spatially lagged dependent variable among the regressors. A numerical study aimed at assessing the practical relevance of the theoretical results is included

Perturbation, extraction and refinement of invariant pairs for matrix polynomials

Generalizing the notion of an eigenvector, invariant subspaces are frequently used in the context of linear eigenvalue problems, leading to conceptually elegant and numerically stable formulations in applications that require the computation of several eigenvalues and/or eigenvectors. Similar benefits can be expected for polynomial eigenvalue problems, for which the concept of an invariant subspace needs to be replaced by the concept of an invariant pair. Little has been known so far about numerical aspects of such invariant pairs. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap. The behavior of invariant pairs under perturbations of the matrix polynomial is studied and a first-order perturbation expansion is given. From a computational point of view, we investigate how to best extract invariant pairs from a linearization of the matrix polynomial. Moreover, we describe efficient refinement procedures directly based on the polynomial formulation. Numerical experiments with matrix polynomials from a number of applications demonstrate the effectiveness of our extraction and refinement procedures.

A search for invariant relative satellite motion

This report presents the canonical Hamiltonian formulation of relative satellite motion. The unperturbed Hamiltonian model is shown to be equivalent to the well known Hill-Clohessy-Wilshire (HCW) linear formulation. The in°uence of perturbations of the nonlinear Gravitational potential and the oblateness of the Earth; J2 perturbations are also modelled within the Hamiltonian formulation. The modelling incorporates eccentricity of the reference orbit. The corresponding Hamiltonian vector ¯elds are computed and implemented in Simulink. A numerical method is presented aimed at locating periodic or quasi-periodic relative satellite motion. The numerical method outlined in this paper is applied to the Hamiltonian system. Although the orbits considered here are weakly unstable at best, in the case of eccentricity only, the method ¯nds exact periodic orbits. When other perturbations such as nonlinear gravitational terms are added, drift is signicantly reduced and in the case of the J2 perturbation with and without the nonlinear gravitational potential term, bounded quasi-periodic solutions are found. Advantages of using Newton's method to search for periodic or quasi-periodic relative satellite motion include simplicity of implementation, repeatability of solutions due to its non-random nature, and fast convergence. Given that the use of bounded or drifting trajectories as control references carries practical di±culties over long-term missions, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to the quasi-periodic or slowly drifting trajectories to help provide a closed reference trajectory for the implementation of closed loop control. In order to evaluate the e®ect of the quality of the model used to generate the periodic reference trajectory, a study involving closed loop control of a simulated master/follower formation was performed. 2 The results of the closed loop control study indicate that the quality of the model employed for generating the reference trajectory used for control purposes has an important in°uence on the resulting amount of fuel required to track the reference trajectory. The model used to generate LQR controller gains also has an e®ect on the e±ciency of the controller.