Distributed acceleration of mobile radio network optimisation algorithms

The past decade has witnessed explosive growth of mobile subscribers and services. With the purpose of providing better-swifter-cheaper services, radio network optimisation plays a crucial role but faces enormous challenges. The concept of Dynamic Network Optimisation (DNO), therefore, has been introduced to optimally and continuously adjust network configurations, in response to changes in network conditions and traffic. However, the realization of DNO has been seriously hindered by the bottleneck of optimisation speed performance. An advanced distributed parallel solution is presented in this paper, as to bridge the gap by accelerating the sophisticated proprietary network optimisation algorithm, while maintaining the optimisation quality and numerical consistency. The ariesoACP product from Arieso Ltd serves as the main platform for acceleration. This solution has been prototyped, implemented and tested. Real-project based results exhibit a high scalability and substantial acceleration at an average speed-up of 2.5, 4.9 and 6.1 on a distributed 5-core, 9-core and 16-core system, respectively. This significantly outperforms other parallel solutions such as multi-threading. Furthermore, augmented optimisation outcome, alongside high correctness and self-consistency, have also been fulfilled. Overall, this is a breakthrough towards the realization of DNO.

Acceleration of radio network optimisation algorithms

The increasing demand for cheaper-faster-better services anytime and anywhere has made radio network optimisation much more complex than ever before. In order to dynamically optimise the serving network, Dynamic Network Optimisation (DNO), is proposed as the ultimate solution and future trend. The realization of DNO, however, has been hindered by a significant bottleneck of the optimisation speed as the network complexity grows. This paper presents a multi-threaded parallel solution to accelerate complicated proprietary network optimisation algorithms, under a rigid condition of numerical consistency. ariesoACP product from Arieso Ltd serves as the platform for parallelisation. This parallel solution has been benchmarked and results exhibit a high scalability and a run-time reduction by 11% to 42% based on the technology, subscriber density and blocking rate of a given network in comparison with the original version. Further, it is highly essential that the parallel version produces equivalent optimisation quality in terms of identical optimisation outputs.

Coalescence of particles by differential sedimentation

We consider a three dimensional system consisting of a large number of small spherical particles, distributed in a range of sizes and heights (with uniform distribution in the horizontal direction). Particles move vertically at a size-dependent terminal velocity. They are either allowed to merge whenever they cross or there is a size ratio criterion enforced to account for collision efficiency. Such a system may be described, in mean field approximation, by the Smoluchowski kinetic equation with a differential sedimentation kernel. We obtain self-similar steady-state and time-dependent solutions to the kinetic equation, using methods borrowed from weak turbulence theory. Analytical results are compared with direct numerical simulations (DNS) of moving and merging particles, and a good agreement is found.

Influence of the size distribution of particles on the viscous property of an electrorheological fluid

The influence of the size distribution of particles on the viscous property of an electrorheological fluid has been investigated by the molecular dynamic simulation method. The shear stress of the fluid is found to decrease with the increase of the variance sigma(2) of the Gaussian distribution of the particle size, and then reach a steady value when sigma is larger than 0.5. This phenomenon is attributed to the influence of the particle size distribution on the dynamic structural evolution in the fluid as well as the strength of the different chain-like structures formed by the particles.

Leaf trapping and retention of particles by holm oak and other common tree species in Mediterranean urban environments

Holm oak (Quercus ilex), a widespread urban street tree in the Mediterranean region, is widely used as biomonitor of persistent atmospheric pollutants, especially particulate-bound metals. By using lab- and field-based experimental approaches, we compared the leaf-level capacity for particles’ capture and retention between Q. ilex and other common Mediterranean urban trees: Quercus cerris, Platanus × hispanica, Tilia cordata and Olea europaea. All applied methods were effective in quantifying particulate capture and retention, although not univocal in ranking species performances. Distinctive morphological features of leaves led to differences in species’ ability to trap and retain particles of different size classes and to accumulate metals after exposure to traffic in an urban street. Overall, P. × hispanica and T. cordata showed the largest capture potential per unit leaf area for most model particles (Na+ and powder particles), and street-level Cu and Pb, while Q. ilex acted intermediately. After wash-off experiments, P. × hispanica leaves had the greatest retention capacity among the tested species and O. europaea the lowest. We concluded that the Platanus planting could be considered in Mediterranean urban environments due to its efficiency in accumulating and retaining airborne particulates; however, with atmospheric pollution being typically higher in winter, the evergreen Q. ilex represents a better year-round choice to mitigate the impact of airborne particulate pollutants.

Dawn-dusk asymmetry in particles of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere

Solar wind/magnetosheath plasma in the magnetosphere can be identified using a component that has a higher charge state, lower density and, at least soon after their entry into the magnetosphere, lower energy than plasma from a terrestrial source. We survey here observations taken over 3 years of He2+ ions made by the Magnetospheric Ion Composition Sensor (MICS) of the Charge and Mass Mgnetospheric Ion Composition Experiment (CAMMICE) instrument aboard POLAR. The occurrence probability of these solar wind ions is then plotted as a function of Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and invariant latitude (3) for various energy ranges. For all energies observed by MICS (1.8–21.4 keV) and all solar wind conditions, the occurrence probabilities peaked around the cusp region and along the dawn flank. The solar wind conditions were filtered to see if this dawnward asymmetry is controlled by the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect (and so depends on the BY component of the interplanetary magnetic field, IMF) or by Fermi acceleration of He2+ at the bow shock (and so depends on the IMF ratio BX/BY ). It is shown that the asymmetry remained persistently on the dawn flank, suggesting it was not due to effects associated with direct entry into the magnetosphere. This asymmetry, with enhanced fluxes on the dawn flank, persisted for lower energy ions (below a “cross-over” energy of about 23 keV) but reversed sense to give higher fluxes on the dusk flank at higher energies. This can be explained by the competing effects of gradient/curvature drifts and the convection electric field on ions that are convecting sunward on re-closed field lines. The lower-energy He2+ ions E × B drift dawnwards as they move earthward, whereas the higher energy ions curvature/gradient drift towards dusk. The convection electric field in the tail is weaker for northward IMF. Ions then need less energy to drift to the dusk flank, so that the cross-over energy, at which the asymmetry changes sense, is reduced.

Temporal evolution and electric potential structure of the auroral acceleration region from multispacecraft measurements

Bright aurorae can be excited by the acceleration of electrons into the atmosphere in violation of ideal magnetohydrodynamics. Modelling studies predict that the accelerating electric potential consists of electric double layers at the boundaries of an acceleration region but observations suggest that particle acceleration occurs throughout this region. Using multi-spacecraft observations from Cluster we have examined two upward current regions on 14 December 2009. Our observations show that the potential difference below C4 and C3 changed by up to 1.7 kV between their respective crossings, which were separated by 150 s. The field-aligned current density observed by C3 was also larger than that observed by C4. The potential drop above C3 and C4 was approximately the same in both crossings. Using a novel technique of quantitatively comparing the electron spectra measured by Cluster 1 and 3, which were separated in altitude, we determine when these spacecraft made effectively magnetically conjugate observations and use these conjugate observations to determine the instantaneous distribution of the potential drop in the AAR. Our observations show that an average of 15% of the potential drop in the AAR was located between C1 at 6235 km and C3 at 4685 km altitude, with a maximum potential drop between the spacecraft of 500~V and that the majority of the potential drop was below C3. By assuming a spatial invariance along the length of the upward current region, we discuss these observations in terms of temporal changes and the vertical structure of the electrostatic potential drop and in the context of existing models and previous observations single- and multi-spacecraft observations.

Transcriptome analysis of grain development in hexaploid wheat

Background: Hexaploid wheat is one of the most important cereal crops for human nutrition. Molecular understanding of the biology of the developing grain will assist the improvement of yield and quality traits for different environments. High quality transcriptomics is a powerful method to increase this understanding. Results: The transcriptome of developing caryopses from hexaploid wheat ( Triticum aestivum, cv. Hereward) was determined using Affymetrix wheat GeneChip (R) oligonucleotide arrays which have probes for 55,052 transcripts. Of these, 14,550 showed significant differential regulation in the period between 6 and 42 days after anthesis ( daa). Large changes in transcript abundance were observed which were categorised into distinct phases of differentiation ( 6 - 10 daa), grain fill ( 12 - 21 daa) and desiccation/maturation ( 28 - 42 daa) and were associated with specific tissues and processes. A similar experiment on developing caryopses grown with dry and/or hot environmental treatments was also analysed, using the profiles established in the first experiment to show that most environmental treatment effects on transcription were due to acceleration of development, but that a few transcripts were specifically affected. Transcript abundance profiles in both experiments for nine selected known and putative wheat transcription factors were independently confirmed by real time RT-PCR. These expression profiles confirm or extend our knowledge of the roles of the known transcription factors and suggest roles for the unknown ones. Conclusion: This transcriptome data will provide a valuable resource for molecular studies on wheat grain. It has been demonstrated how it can be used to distinguish general developmental shifts from specific effects of treatments on gene expression and to diagnose the probable tissue specificity and role of transcription factors.

Seston capture by Hydropsyche siltalai and the accuracy of capture efficiency estimates

1. Suspension feeding by caseless caddisfly larvae (Trichoptera) constitutes a major pathway for energy flow, and strongly influences productivity, in streams and rivers. 2. Consideration of the impact of these animals on lotic ecosystems has been strongly influenced by a single study investigating the efficiency of particle capture of nets built by one species of hydropsychid caddisfly. 3. Using water sampling techniques at appropriate spatial scales, and taking greater consideration of local hydrodynamics than previously, we examined the size-frequency distribution of particles captured by the nets of Hydropsyche siltalai. Our results confirm that capture nets are selective in terms of particle size, and in addition suggest that this selectivity is for particles likely to provide the most energy. 4. By incorporating estimates of flow diversion around the nets of caseless caddisfly larvae, we show that capture efficiency (CE) is considerably higher than previously estimated, and conclude that more consideration of local hydrodynamics is needed to evaluate the efficiency of particle capture. 5. We use our results to postulate a mechanistic explanation for a recent example of interspecific facilitation, whereby a reduction of near-bed velocities seen in single species monocultures leads to increased capture rates and local depletion of seston within the region of reduced velocity.

The kinetics of the 2π+2π photodimerisation reactions of single-crystalline derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid: a study by infrared microspectroscopy

The kinetics of the photodimerisation reactions of the 2- and 4-β-halogeno-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid (where the halogen is fluorine, chlorine or bromine) have been investigated by infrared microspectroscopy. It is found that none of the reactions proceed to 100% yield. This is in line with a reaction mechanism developed by Wernick and his co-workers that postulates the formation of isolated monomers within the solid, which cannot react. β-4-Bromo and β-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acids show approximately first order kinetics, although in both cases the reaction accelerates somewhat as it proceeds. First order kinetics is explained in terms of a reaction between one excited- and one ground-state monomer molecule, while the acceleration of the reaction implies that it is promoted as defects are formed within the crystal. By contrast β-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid shows a strongly accelerating reaction which models closely to the contracting cube equation. β-2-Fluoro- and β-4-fluoro-trans-cinnamic acids show a close match to first order kinetics. The 4-fluoro-derivative, however, shows a reaction that proceeds via a structural intermediate. The difference in behaviour between the 2-fluoro- and 4-fluoro-derivative may be due to different C–HF hydrogen bonds observed within these single-crystalline starting materials.

Differential uptake of subfractions of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins by THP-1 macrophages

It is well known that raised plasma triglycerides (TG) are positively linked to the development of coronary heart disease. However, triglycerides circulate in a range of distinct lipoprotein subtractions and the relative atherogenicity of these subtractions is not clear. In this study, three fractions of triglyceride rich lipoprotein (TRL) were isolated from normolipidaemic males according to their differing Svedberg flotation (S-f) rates: chylomicron (CM, S-f > 400), very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)-1 (S-f 60-400) and VLDL-2 (S-f 20-60). These fractions were incubated with THP-1 monocyte-derived macrophages for determination of cholesterol and TG accumulation, in the presence and absence of the lipoprotein lipase (LPL) inhibitor orlistat. Expression of LDL receptor related protein (LRP) and apolipoprotein B48 receptor (apoB48R) was also examined in both differentiating monocytes, and monocyte-derived macrophages, incubated with TRL. VLDL-I caused a significantly greater accumulation of TG within macrophages compared to VLDL-2. Binding studies also tended to show a greater preference for VLDL-1. No change in expression of LRP or apoB48R was observed in fully differentiated macrophages incubated with VLDL-1, VLDL-2 or CM, although a greater expression of LRP mRNA was observed in differentiating monocytes exposed to VLDL-1, compared to those incubated with CM or VLDL-2. TG loading in response to all three TRL fractions was blocked by orlistat, suggesting that it is likely that the major pathway for uptake of TG was hydrolysis by LPL. Calculations suggested that direct uptake of particles accounts for between 12 and 25% of total TAG uptake. In conclusion, THP monocyte-derived macrophages demonstrate a preference for VLDL-1, both through the LPL pathway and by direct uptake of whole particles. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface properties and locations of gluten proteins and lipids revealed using confocal scanning laser microscopy in bread dough

Surface properties of gluten proteins were measured in a dilation test and in compression and expansion tests. The results showed that monomeric gliadin was highly surface active, but polymer glutenin had almost no surface activity. The locations of those proteins in bread dough were investigated using confocal scanning laser microscopy and compared with polar and nonpolar lipids. Added gluten proteins participated in the formation of the film or the matrix, surrounding and separating individual gas cells in bread dough. Gliadin was found in the bulk of dough and gas 'cell walls'. Glutenin was found only in the bulk dough. Polar lipids were present in the protein matrix and in gas 'cell walls', as well as at the surface of some particles, which appeared to be starch granules. However, nonpolar lipid mainly occur-red on the surface of particles, which may be starch granules and small lipid droplets. It is suggested that the locations of gluten proteins in bread dough depends on their surface properties. Polar lipid participates the formation of gluten protein matrix and gas 'cell walls'. Nonpolar lipids may have an effect on the rheological properties by associating with starch granule surfaces and may form lipid droplets. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Stubs versus swabs? A comparison of gunshot residue collection techniques

The collection efficiency of two widely used gunshot residue (GSR) collection techniques—carbon-coated adhesive stubs and alcohol swabs—has been compared by counting the number of characteristic GSR particles collected from the firing hand of a shooter after firing one round. Samples were analyzed with both scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-rays by an experienced GSR analyst, and the number of particles on each sample containing Pb, Ba, and Sb counted. The adhesive stubs showed a greater collection efficiency as all 24 samples gave positive results for GSR particles whereas the swabs gave only positive results for half of the 24 samples. Results showed a statistically significant collection efficiency for the stub collection method and likely reasons for this are considered.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.