The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organisations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organisations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements - especially reductions in uncertainty - in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare: a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty; and b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food-chain transfer of cadmium and zinc from contaminated Urtica dioica to Helix aspersa and Lumbricus terrestris

The present study examines the potential of Urtica dioica as an ecologically relevant species for use in ecotoxicological testing. It is prevalent in degraded ecosystems and is a food source for invertebrates. Urtica dioica grown in hydroponic solutions containing from less than 0.003 to 5.7 mg Cd/L or from 0.02 to 41.9 mg Zn/L accumulated metals resulting in leaf tissue concentrations in the range of 0.10 to 24.9 mg Cd/kg or 22.5 to 2,772.0 mg Zn/kg. No toxicological effects were apparent except at the highest concentrations tested, suggesting that this species may be an important pathway for transfer of metals to primary plant consumers. Helix aspersa and Lumbricus terrestris were fed the Cd- and Zn-rich leaves of U. dioica for six and four weeks, respectively. Cadmium and Zn body load increased with increasing metal concentration in the leaves (p < 0.001). Ratios of invertebrate metal concentration to leaf metal concentration were in the range of 1:0.03 to 1:1.4 for Cd and 1:0.2 to 1:2.8 for Zn in H. aspersa and 1:0.002 to 1:3.9 for Cd and 1:0.2 to 1:8.8 for Zn in L. terrestris. Helix aspersa Cd and Zn tissue concentrations (15.5 and 1,220.2 mg/kg, respectively) were approximately threefold those in L. terrestris when both species were fed nettle leaves with concentrations of approximately 23 mg Cd/ kg and 3,400 mg Zn/kg. Models demonstrate that L. terrestris Cd tissue concentrations (r(2) = 0.74, p < 0.001) and H. aspersa Zn tissue concentrations (r(2) = 0.69, p < 0.001) can be estimated from concentrations of Cd and Zn within the leaves of U. dioica and suggest that reasonably reproducible results can be obtained using these species for ecotoxicological testing.

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moving boundary value problems for the wave equation

We study certain boundary value problems for the one-dimensional wave equation posed in a time-dependent domain. The approach we propose is based on a general transform method for solving boundary value problems for integrable nonlinear PDE in two variables, that has been applied extensively to the study of linear parabolic and elliptic equations. Here we analyse the wave equation as a simple illustrative example to discuss the particular features of this method in the context of linear hyperbolic PDEs, which have not been studied before in this framework.

Triazole induced drought tolerance in horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum)

We determined the influence of the triazole derivatives paclobutrazol, penconazole, epixiconazole, propiconazole and myclobutanil on the drought tolerance and post drought recovery of container-grown horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) saplings. Myclobutanil neither conferred drought resistance, as assessed by its effects on a number of physiological and biochemical parameters, nor affected growth parameters measured after recovery from drought. Chlorophyll fluorescence (F,IF,,), photosynthetic rates, total foliar chlorophyll and carotenoid concentrations, foliar proline concentration and superoxide dismutase and catalase activities were consistently higher and leaf necrosis and cellular electrolyte leakage was lower at the end of a 3-week drought in trees treated with paclobutrazol, penconazole, epixiconazole or propiconazole than in control trees. Twelve weeks after drought treatment, leaf area and shoot, root and total plant dry masses were greater in triazole-treated trees than in control trees with the exception of those treated with myclobutanil. In a separate Study, trees were subjected to a 2-week drought and then sprayed with paclobutrazol, penconazole, epixiconazole, propiconazole or myclobutanil. Chlorophyll fluorescence, photosynthetic rate, foliar chlorophyll concentration and catalase activity over the following 12 weeks were 20 to 50% hi-her in triazole-treated trees than in control trees. At the end of the 12-week recovery period, leaf area and shoot, root and total plant dry masses were higher in triazole-treated trees than in control trees, with the exception of trees treated with myclobutanil. Application of triazole derivatives, with the exception of myclobutanil, enhanced tolerance to prolonged drought and, when applied after a 2-week drought, hastened recovery from drought. The magnitude of treatment effects was in the order epixiconazole approximate to propiconazole > penconazole > paclobutrazol > myclobutanil.

The coordination chemistry of 1,2,4-triazinyl bipyridines with lanthanide(III) elements - implications for the partitioning of americium(III)

It has been established that 6-(5,6-dialkyl-1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2'-bipyridines (R,hemi-BTPs) have properties which are intermediate between those of the terpyridines and the bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)pyridines (BTPs). However, they resemble the terpyridines much more closely than the BTPs. It has been shown that Et, hemi-BTP when dissolved in TPH-a dodecane-like solvent-is a selective reagent for the separation of americium(III) from europium(III). Solution NMR in acetonitrile largely confirmed the crystallographic results. There was no evidence for a 1 : 3 complex cation, or for significant differences between metal(III)-N distances for the pyridine and 1,2,4-triazine rings. Intramolecular hydrogen bonding plays a crucial role in the formation of metal coordination spheres, which explains the differences between the terpyridyl, R,hemi-BTPs and the BTPs. Protonation of the R,hemi-BTPs facilitates a conformational change which is necessary for complexation.

Stress-induced changes in the Schizosaccharomyces pombe proteome using two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis, mass spectrometry and a novel integrated robotics platform

Robotic and manual methods have been used to obtain identification of significantly changing proteins regulated when Schizosaccharomyces pombe is exposed to oxidative stress. Differently treated S. pombe cells were lysed, labelled with CyDye (TM) and analysed by two-dimensional difference gel. electrophoresis. Gel images analysed off-line, using the DeCyder (TM) image analysis software [GE Healthcare, Amersham, UK] allowed selection of significantly regulated proteins. Proteins displaying differential expression were excised robotically for manual digestion and identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation - mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS). Additionally the same set of proteins displaying differential expression were automatically cut and digested using a prototype robotic platform. Automated MALDI-MS, peak label assignment and database searching were utilised to identify as many proteins as possible. The results achieved by the robotic system were compared to manual methods. The identification of all significantly altered proteins provides an annotated peroxide stress-related proteome that can be used as a base resource against which other stress-induced proteomic changes can be compared.