Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Robust approaches to forecasting

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, impulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods are likely to perform well. The robust methods are applied to forecasting US GDP using autoregressive models, and also to autoregressive models with factors extracted from a large dataset of macroeconomic variables. We consider forecasting performance over the Great Recession, and over an earlier more quiescent period.

The role of life history traits in mammalian invasion success

Why some organisms become invasive when introduced into novel regions while others fail to even establish is a fundamental question in ecology. Barriers to success are expected to filter species at each stage along the invasion pathway. No study to date, however, has investigated how species traits associate with success from introduction to spread at a large spatial scale in any group. Using the largest data set of mammalian introductions at the global scale and recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that human-mediated introductions considerably bias which species have the opportunity to become invasive, as highly productive mammals with longer reproductive lifespans are far more likely to be introduced. Subsequently, greater reproductive output and higher introduction effort are associated with success at both the establishment and spread stages. High productivity thus supports population growth and invasion success, with barriers at each invasion stage filtering species with progressively greater fecundity.

Gene expression changes in phosphorus deficient potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) leaves and the potential for diagnostic gene expression markers

Background: There are compelling economic and environmental reasons to reduce our reliance on inorganic phosphate (Pi) fertilisers. Better management of Pi fertiliser applications is one option to improve the efficiency of Pi fertiliser use, whilst maintaining crop yields. Application rates of Pi fertilisers are traditionally determined from analyses of soil or plant tissues. Alternatively, diagnostic genes with altered expression under Pi limiting conditions that suggest a physiological requirement for Pi fertilisation, could be used to manage Pifertiliser applications, and might be more precise than indirect measurements of soil or tissue samples. Results: We grew potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants hydroponically, under glasshouse conditions, to control their nutrient status accurately. Samples of total leaf RNA taken periodically after Pi was removed from the nutrient solution were labelled and hybridised to potato oligonucleotide arrays. A total of 1,659 genes were significantly differentially expressed following Pi withdrawal. These included genes that encode proteins involved in lipid, protein, and carbohydrate metabolism, characteristic of Pi deficient leaves and included potential novel roles for genes encoding patatin like proteins in potatoes. The array data were analysed using a support vector machine algorithm to identify groups of genes that could predict the Pi status of the crop. These groups of diagnostic genes were tested using field grown potatoes that had either been fertilised or unfertilised. A group of 200 genes could correctly predict the Pi status of field grown potatoes. Conclusions: This paper provides a proof-of-concept demonstration for using microarrays and class prediction tools to predict the Pi status of a field grown potato crop. There is potential to develop this technology for other biotic and abiotic stresses in field grown crops. Ultimately, a better understanding of crop stresses may improve our management of the crop, improving the sustainability of agriculture.

Chill unit models for blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum L.) cultivars 'Ben Gairn', 'Ben Hope' and 'Ben Tirran'

Temperate-zone crops require a period of winter chilling to terminate dormancy and ensure adequate bud break the following spring. The exact chilling requirement of blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum), a commercially important crop in northern Europe, is relatively unknown. Chill unit models have been successfully utilized to determine the optimum chilling temperature of a range of crops, with one chill unit equating to I h exposure to the optimum temperature for chill satisfaction. Two-year-old R. nigrum plants of the cultivars 'Ben Gairn', 'Ben Hope' and 'Ben Tirran' were exposed to temperatures of -10.1 degrees C. -3.4 degrees C. 0.1 degrees C, 1.5 degrees C, 2.1 degrees C, 3.4 degrees C or 8.9 degrees C (+/- 0.7 degrees C) for durations of 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10 weeks and multiple regression analyses used to determine the optimum temperature for chill satisfaction. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization and PCR multiplexing of polymorphic microsatellite loci in cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) and their cross-species utilization

Cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) is the most economically important tropical nut crop in the world, and yet there are no sequence tagged site (STS) markers available for its study. Here we use an automated, high-throughput system to isolate cashew microsatellites from a non-enriched genomic library blotted onto membranes at high density for screening. Sixty-five sequences contained a microsatellite array, of which 21 proved polymorphic among a closely related seed garden population of 49 genotypes. Twelve markers were suitable for multiplex analysis. Of these, 10 amplified in all three related tropical tree species tested: Anacardium microcarpum, Anacardium pumilum and Anacardium nanum.

Quantifying the impact and relevance of scientific research

Qualitative and quantitative methods are being developed to measure the impacts of research on society, but they suffer from serious drawbacks associated with linking a piece of research to its subsequent impacts. We have developed a method to derive impact scores for individual research publications according to their contribution to answering questions of quantified importance to end users of research. To demonstrate the approach, here we evaluate the impacts of research into means of conserving wild bee populations in the UK. For published papers, there is a weak positive correlation between our impact score and the impact factor of the journal. The process identifies publications that provide high quality evidence relating to issues of strong concern. It can also be used to set future research agendas.

Composition cyclique et programme d’illustrations. L’épisode de Grisandole dans le manuscrit enluminé de la Suite Vulgate du Merlin, B. L. Add. 10292

L'étude du texte et de l'illustration de l'épisode romain dans la Suite Vulgate du Merlin du manuscrit British Library Add. 10292 (XIVe s.) permet d'explorer la relation entre l'amplification cyclique à l'œuvre dans ce passage au statut textuel complexe et le développement spécifique d'une série voire d'un cycle d'illustrations.

Construction of a Festuca pratensis BAC library for map-based cloning in Festulolium substitution lines

Introgression in Festulolium is a potentially powerful tool to isolate genes for a large number of traits which differ between Festuca pratensis Huds. and Lolium perenne L. Not only are hybrids between the two species fertile, but the two genomes can be distinguished by genomic in situ hybridisation and a high frequency of recombination occurs between homoeologous chromosomes and chromosome segments. By a programme of introgression and a series of backcrosses, L. perenne lines have been produced which contain small F. pratensis substitutions. This material is a rich source of polymorphic markers targeted towards any trait carried on the F. pratensis substitution not observed in the L. perenne background. We describe here the construction of an F. pratensis BAC library, which establishes the basis of a map-based cloning strategy in L. perenne. The library contains 49,152 clones, with an average insert size of 112 kbp, providing coverage of 2.5 haploid genome equivalents. We have screened the library for eight amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) derived markers known to be linked to an F. pratensis gene introgressed into L. perenne and conferring a staygreen phenotype as a consequence of a mutation in primary chlorophyll catabolism. While for four of the markers it was possible to identify bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) clones, the other four AFLPs were too repetitive to enable reliable identification of locus-specific BACs. Moreover, when the four BACs were partially sequenced, no obvious coding regions could be identified. This contrasted to BACs identified using cDNA sequences, when multiple genes were identified on the same BAC.

Diversity in expression of phosphorus (P) responsive genes in Cucumis melo L.

Background: Phosphorus (P) is a major limiting nutrient for plant growth in many soils. Studies in model species have identified genes involved in plant adaptations to low soil P availability. However, little information is available on the genetic bases of these adaptations in vegetable crops. In this respect, sequence data for melon now makes it possible to identify melon orthologues of candidate P responsive genes, and the expression of these genes can be used to explain the diversity in the root system adaptation to low P availability, recently observed in this species. Methodology and Findings: Transcriptional responses to P starvation were studied in nine diverse melon accessions by comparing the expression of eight candidate genes (Cm-PAP10.1, Cm-PAP10.2, Cm-RNS1, Cm-PPCK1, Cm-transferase, Cm-SQD1, Cm-DGD1 and Cm-SPX2) under P replete and P starved conditions. Differences among melon accessions were observed in response to P starvation, including differences in plant morphology, P uptake, P use efficiency (PUE) and gene expression. All studied genes were up regulated under P starvation conditions. Differences in the expression of genes involved in P mobilization and remobilization (Cm-PAP10.1, Cm-PAP10.2 and Cm-RNS1) under P starvation conditions explained part of the differences in P uptake and PUE among melon accessions. The levels of expression of the other studied genes were diverse among melon accessions, but contributed less to the phenotypical response of the accessions. Conclusions: This is the first time that these genes have been described in the context of P starvation responses in melon. There exists significant diversity in gene expression levels and P use efficiency among melon accessions as well as significant correlations between gene expression levels and phenotypical measurements.