Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?

Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation. Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Will rising household incomes solve China's micronutrient deficiency problems?

Rapid economic growth in China has resulted in substantially improved household incomes. Diets have also changed, with a movement away from traditional foods and towards animal products and processed foods. Yet micronutrient deficiencies, particularly for calcium and vitamin A, are still widespread in China. In this research we model the determinants of the intakes of these micronutrients using household panel data, asking particularly whether continuing income increases are likely to cause the deficiencies to be overcome. Nonparametric kernel regressions and random effects panel regression models are employed. The results show a statistically significant but relatively small positive income effect on both nutrient intakes. The local availability of milk is seen to have a strong positive effect on intakes of both micronutrients. Thus, rather than relying on increasing incomes to overcome deficiencies, supplementary government policies, such as school milk programmes, may be warranted.

The evolution of mobile DNAs: when will transposons create phylogenies that look as if there is a master gene?

Some families of mammalian interspersed repetitive DNA, such as the Alu SINE sequence, appear to have evolved by the serial replacement of one active sequence with another, consistent with there being a single source of transposition: the "master gene." Alternative models, in which multiple source sequences are simultaneously active, have been called "transposon models." Transposon models differ in the proportion of elements that are active and in whether inactivation occurs at the moment of transposition or later. Here we examine the predictions of various types of transposon model regarding the patterns of sequence variation expected at an equilibrium between transposition, inactivation, and deletion. Under the master gene model, all bifurcations in the true tree of elements occur in a single lineage. We show that this property will also hold approximately for transposon models in which most elements are inactive and where at least some of the inactivation events occur after transposition. Such tree shapes are therefore not conclusive evidence for a single source of transposition.

Language, education and ethnicity: whose rights will prevail in an age of globalisation?

Education and ethnicity cannot be discussed without taking language into account. This paper will argue that any discussion of ethnic minorities cannot ignore the question of language, nor can any discussion of human rights ignore the question of language rights. Unfortunately, in today's globalised world, governments and minorities are faced with conflicting pressures: on the one hand, for the development and use of education in a global/international language; on the other for the use and development of mother tongue, local or indigenous languages in education. Language complexity and ethnic plurality were largely brought about as a result of the creation of nation-states, which were spread around the world as a result of European colonialism. European languages and formal education systems were used as a means of political and economic control. The legacy that was left by the colonial powers has complicated ethnic relations and has frequently led to conflict. While there is now greater recognition of the importance of language both for economic and educational development, as well as for human rights, the forces of globalisation are leading towards uniformity in the languages used, in culture and even in education. They are working against the development of language rights for smaller groups. We are witnessing a sharp decline in the number of languages spoken. Only those languages which are numerically, economically and politically strong are likely to survive. As a result many linguistic and ethnic groups are in danger of being further marginalised. This paper will illustrate this thesis both historically and from several contemporary societies, showing how certain policies have exacerbated ethnic conflict while others are seeking to promote harmony and reconciliation. Why this should be so will be explored. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robot free will

We introduce the perspex machine which unifies projective geometry and Turing computation and results in a supra-Turing machine. We show two ways in which the perspex machine unifies symbolic and non-symbolic AI. Firstly, we describe concrete geometrical models that map perspexes onto neural networks, some of which perform only symbolic operations. Secondly, we describe an abstract continuum of perspex logics that includes both symbolic logics and a new class of continuous logics. We argue that an axiom in symbolic logic can be the conclusion of a perspex theorem. That is, the atoms of symbolic logic can be the conclusions of sub-atomic theorems. We argue that perspex space can be mapped onto the spacetime of the universe we inhabit. This allows us to discuss how a robot might be conscious, feel, and have free will in a deterministic, or semi-deterministic, universe. We ground the reality of our universe in existence. On a theistic point, we argue that preordination and free will are compatible. On a theological point, we argue that it is not heretical for us to give robots free will. Finally, we give a pragmatic warning as to the double-edged risks of creating robots that do, or alternatively do not, have free will.