Deeper model endgame analysis

A reference model of Fallible Endgame Play has been implemented and exercised with the chess-engine WILHELM. Past experiments have demonstrated the value of the model and the robustness of decisions based on it: experiments agree well with a Markov Model theory. Here, the reference model is exercised on the well-known endgame KBBKN.

Model endgame analysis

A reference model of Fallible Endgame Play has been implemented and exercised with the chess engine WILHELM. Various experiments have demonstrated the value of the model and the robustness of decisions based on it. Experimental results have also been compared with the theoretical predictions of a Markov model of the endgame and found to be in close agreement.

Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

A comparison of three different models for estimating relative risk in meta-analysis of clinical trials under unobserved heterogeneity

We focus on the comparison of three statistical models used to estimate the treatment effect in metaanalysis when individually pooled data are available. The models are two conventional models, namely a multi-level and a model based upon an approximate likelihood, and a newly developed model, the profile likelihood model which might be viewed as an extension of the Mantel-Haenszel approach. To exemplify these methods, we use results from a meta-analysis of 22 trials to prevent respiratory tract infections. We show that by using the multi-level approach, in the case of baseline heterogeneity, the number of clusters or components is considerably over-estimated. The approximate and profile likelihood method showed nearly the same pattern for the treatment effect distribution. To provide more evidence two simulation studies are accomplished. The profile likelihood can be considered as a clear alternative to the approximate likelihood model. In the case of strong baseline heterogeneity, the profile likelihood method shows superior behaviour when compared with the multi-level model. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduced heart rate responding to trauma reliving in trauma survivors with PTSD: correlates and consequences

The authors investigated whether heart rate (HR) responses to voluntary recall of trauma memories (a) are related to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and (b) predict recovery 6 months later. Sixty-two assault survivors completed a recall task modeled on imaginal reliving in the initial weeks postassault. Possible cognitive modulators of HR responsivity were assessed; dissociation, rumination, trauma memory disorganization. Individuals with PTSD showed a reduced HR response to reliving compared to those without PTSD, but reported greater distress. Notably, higher HR response but not self-reported distress during reliving predicted greater symptom reduction at follow-up in participants with PTSD. Engagement in rumination was the only cognitive factor that predicted lower HR response. The data are in contrast to studies using trauma reminders to trigger memories, which have found greater physiological reactivity in PTSD. The authors' observations are consistent with models of PTSD that highlight differences between cued or stimulus-driven retrieval and intentional trauma recall, and with E B. Foa and M.J. Kozak (1986) hypothesis that full activation of trauma memories facilitates emotional processing.

Short tandem repeat profiling provides an international reference standard for human cell lines

Cross-contamination between cell lines is a longstanding and frequent cause of scientific misrepresentation. Estimates from national testing services indicate that up to 36% of cell lines are of a different origin or species to that claimed. To test a standard method of cell line authentication, 253 human cell lines from banks and research institutes worldwide were analyzed by short tandem repeat profiling. The short tandem repeat profile is a simple numerical code that is reproducible between laboratories, is inexpensive, and can provide an international reference standard for every cell line. If DNA profiling of cell lines is accepted and demanded internationally, scientific misrepresentation because of cross-contamination can be largely eliminated.

Fallstudie - Künstlerische (Selbst) Ausbildung

Group Exhibition, curated by Katharina Schlieben including Johanna Billing, Constanze Böckmann, Henrik Busch, Copenhagen Free University, Alena Drahokoupilová & Karen Weinert, Paul Elsner , Franziska und Sophia Hoffmann, Saskia Holmkvist, Thomas Judisch, Nastasja Keller, Karen Koschnick, Andreja Kulunčić , Lecker & Heiss GbR (Levke Leiss und Karla Helene Hecker), MeineAkademie, Karolin Meunier, Constanze Nowak, Olivia Plender, Marion Porten, Prelom Kolektiv (Jelena Vesić und Radmila Joksimović), REINIGUNGSGESELLSCHAFT, Anna Schimkat, Claudia Schötz, Szuper Gallery, TkH (Walking Theory): Marta Popivoda und Ana Vujanović

Interferometric technique for measuring terahertz antenna phase patterns

A quasi-optical interferometric technique capable of measuring antenna phase patterns without the need for a heterodyne receiver is presented. It is particularly suited to the characterization of terahertz antennas feeding power detectors or mixers employing quasi-optical local oscillator injection. Examples of recorded antenna phase patterns at frequencies of 1.4 and 2.5 THz using homodyne detectors are presented. To our knowledge, these are the highest frequency antenna phase patterns ever recovered. Knowledge of both the amplitude and phase patterns in the far field enable a Gauss-Hermite or Gauss-Laguerre beam-mode analysis to be carried out for the antenna, of importance in performance optimization calculations, such as antenna gain and beam efficiency parameters at the design and prototype stage of antenna development. A full description of the beam would also be required if the antenna is to be used to feed a quasi-optical system in the near-field to far-field transition region. This situation could often arise when the device is fitted directly at the back of telescopes in flying observatories. A further benefit of the proposed technique is simplicity for characterizing systems in situ, an advantage of considerable importance as in many situations, the components may not be removable for further characterization once assembled. The proposed methodology is generic and should be useful across the wider sensing community, e.g., in single detector acoustic imaging or in adaptive imaging array applications. Furthermore, it is applicable across other frequencies of the EM spectrum, provided adequate spatial and temporal phase stability of the source can be maintained throughout the measurement process. Phase information retrieval is also of importance to emergent research areas, such as band-gap structure characterization, meta-materials research, electromagnetic cloaking, slow light, super-lens design as well as near-field and virtual imaging applications.

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.