Bergmann's rule and body size in mammals

Aim: To describe the geographical pattern of mean body size of the non-volant mammals of the Nearctic and Neotropics and evaluate the influence of five environmental variables that are likely to affect body size gradients. Location: The Western Hemisphere. Methods: We calculated mean body size (average log mass) values in 110 × 110 km cells covering the continental Nearctic and Neotropics. We also generated cell averages for mean annual temperature, range in elevation, their interaction, actual evapotranspiration, and the global vegetation index and its coefficient of variation. Associations between mean body size and environmental variables were tested with simple correlations and ordinary least squares multiple regression, complemented with spatial autocorrelation analyses and split-line regression. We evaluated the relative support for each multiple-regression model using AIC. Results: Mean body size increases to the north in the Nearctic and is negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, across the Neotropics mammals are largest in the tropical and subtropical lowlands and smaller in the Andes, generating a positive correlation with temperature. Finally, body size and temperature are nonlinearly related in both regions, and split-line linear regression found temperature thresholds marking clear shifts in these relationships (Nearctic 10.9 °C; Neotropics 12.6 °C). The increase in body sizes with decreasing temperature is strongest in the northern Nearctic, whereas a decrease in body size in mountains dominates the body size gradients in the warmer parts of both regions. Main conclusions: We confirm previous work finding strong broad-scale Bergmann trends in cold macroclimates but not in warmer areas. For the latter regions (i.e. the southern Nearctic and the Neotropics), our analyses also suggest that both local and broad-scale patterns of mammal body size variation are influenced in part by the strong mesoscale climatic gradients existing in mountainous areas. A likely explanation is that reduced habitat sizes in mountains limit the presence of larger-sized mammals.

Equatorial waves in opposite QBO phases

A methodology for identifying equatorial waves is used to analyze the multilevel 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data for two different years (1992 and 1993) to investigate the behavior of the equatorial waves under opposite phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A comprehensive view of 3D structures and of zonal and vertical propagation of equatorial Kelvin, westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG), and n = 1 Rossby (R1) waves in different QBO phases is presented. Consistent with expectation based on theory, upward-propagating Kelvin waves occur more frequently during the easterly QBO phase than during the westerly QBO phase. However, the westward-moving WMRG and R1 waves show the opposite behavior. The presence of vertically propagating equatorial waves in the stratosphere also depends on the upper tropospheric winds and tropospheric forcing. Typical propagation parameters such as the zonal wavenumber, zonal phase speed, period, vertical wavelength, and vertical group velocity are found. In general, waves in the lower stratosphere have a smaller zonal wavenumber, shorter period, faster phase speed, and shorter vertical wavelength than those in the upper troposphere. All of the waves in the lower stratosphere show an upward group velocity and downward phase speed. When the phase of the QBO is not favorable for waves to propagate, their phase speed in the lower stratosphere is larger and their period is shorter than in the favorable phase, suggesting Doppler shifting by the ambient flow and a filtering of the slow waves. Tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere also show upward phase speed and downward group velocity, with an indication of their forcing from middle latitudes. Although the waves observed in the lower stratosphere are dominated by “free” waves, there is evidence of some connection with previous tropical convection in the favorable year for the Kelvin waves in the warm water hemisphere and WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere, which is suggestive of the importance of convective forcing for the existence of propagating coupled Kelvin waves and midlatitude forcing for the existence of coupled WMRG and R1 waves.

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nin˜o and La Nin˜a. During the El Nin˜ o events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.

ENSO related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes

The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the East Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds have the stronger WMRG and WMRG- E. In the East Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward-shift between LN and EN. The changes with ENSO phase provide a test-bed for the understanding of these waves. In the East Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the East Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wavetrains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appear to be lateral forcing by subtropical wavetrains.

The zonal asymmetry of the Southern Hemisphere storm-track

Atmospheric general circulation model experiments have been performed to investigate how the significant zonal asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter storm track is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) and orography. An experiment with zonally symmetric tropical SSTs expands the SH upper-tropospheric storm track poleward and eastward and destroys its spiral structure. Diagnosis suggests that these aspects of the observed storm track result from Rossby wave propagation from a wave source in the Indian Ocean region associated with the monsoon there. The lower-tropospheric storm track is not sensitive to this forcing. However, an experiment with zonally symmetric midlatitude SSTs exhibits a marked reduction in the magnitude of the maximum intensity of the lower-tropospheric storm track associated with reduced SST gradients in the western Indian Ocean. Experiments without the elevation of the South African Plateau or the Andes show reductions in the intensity of the major storm track downstream of them due to reduced cyclogenesis associated with the topography. These results suggest that the zonal asymmetry of the SH winter storm track is mainly established by stationary waves excited by zonal asymmetry in tropical SST in the upper troposphere and by local SST gradients in the lower troposphere, and that it is modified through cyclogenesis associated with the topography of South Africa and South America.

Enhancement of the aerosol direct radiative effect by semi-volatile aerosol components: airborne measurements in North-Western Europe

A case study of atmospheric aerosol measurements exploring the impact of the vertical distribution of aerosol chemical composition upon the radiative budget in North-Western Europe is presented. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured by an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) on both an airborne platform and a ground-based site at Cabauw in the Netherlands. The examined period in May 2008 was characterised by enhanced pollution loadings in North-Western Europe and was dominated by ammonium nitrate and Organic Matter (OM). Both ammonium nitrate and OM were observed to increase with altitude in the atmospheric boundary layer. This is primarily attributed to partitioning of semi-volatile gas phase species to the particle phase at reduced temperature and enhanced relative humidity. Increased ammonium nitrate concentrations in particular were found to strongly increase the ambient scattering potential of the aerosol burden, which was a consequence of the large amount of associated water as well as the enhanced mass. During particularly polluted conditions, increases in aerosol optical depth of 50–100% were estimated to occur due to the observed increase in secondary aerosol mass and associated water uptake. Furthermore, the single scattering albedo was also shown to increase with height in the boundary layer. These enhancements combined to increase the negative direct aerosol radiative forcing by close to a factor of two at the median percentile level. Such increases have major ramifications for regional climate predictions as semi-volatile components are often not included in aerosol models. The results presented here provide an ideal opportunity to test regional and global representations of both the aerosol vertical distribution and subsequent impacts in North-Western Europe. North-Western Europe can be viewed as an analogue for the possible future air quality over other polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where substantial reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions have yet to occur. Anticipated reductions in sulphur dioxide in polluted regions will result in an increase in the availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate as opposed to ammonium sulphate. This will be most important where intensive agricultural practises occur. Our observations over North-Western Europe, a region where sulphur dioxide emissions have already been reduced, indicate that failure to include the semi-volatile behaviour of ammonium nitrate will result in significant errors in predicted aerosol direct radiative forcing. Such errors will be particularly significant on regional scales.

Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks

Building on studies by Brayshaw et al. (2009, 2011) of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (land-sea contrast, orography and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealised boundary conditions in the HadGAM1 model. The Himalaya-Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the north-eastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favours baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the 20th to the 21st centuries as simulated in twelve CMIP5 models is analysed. The RCP 8.5 high emission scenario runs are used to represent the 21st century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins (2003a). It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) index in viewing equatorward cut-off lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the mid-latitude storm-track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the 21st century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean 21st century winter poleward shift of high- latitude blocking, but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the 21st century model runs is again found. However in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over Eastern Europe and Western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks

The aim of this paper is to explore the use of both an Eulerian and system-centered method of storm track diagnosis applied to a wide range of meteorological fields at multiple levels to provide a range of perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter transient motions and to give new insight into the storm track organization and behavior. The data used are primarily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses project extended with operational analyses to the period 1979-2000. This is supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Goddard Earth Observing System 1 reanalyses. The range of fields explored include the usual mean sea level pressure and the lower- and upper-tropospheric height, meridional wind, vorticity, and temperature, as well as the potential vorticity (PV) on a 330-K isentropic surface (PV330) and potential temperature on a PV = 2 PVU surface (theta(PV2)). As well as reporting the primary analysis based on feature tracking, the standard Eulerian 2-6-day bandpass filtered variance analysis is also reported and contrasted with the tracking diagnostics. To enable the feature points to be identified as extrema for all the chosen fields, a planetary wave background structure is removed at each data time. The bandpass filtered variance derived from the different fields yield a rich picture of the nature and comparative magnitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and of the Siberian and Mediterranean candidates for storm tracks. The feature tracking allows the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities to be considered seperately. The analysis indicates that anticyclonic features are generally much weaker with less coherence than the cyclonic systems. Cyclones and features associated with them are shown to have much greater coherence and give tracking diagnostics that create a vivid storm track picture that includes the aspects highlighted by the variances as well as highlighting aspects that are not readily available from Eulerian studies. In particular, the upper-tropospheric features as shown by negative theta(PV2), for example, occur in a band spiraling around the hemisphere from the subtropical North Atlantic eastward to the high latitudes of the same ocean basin. Lower-troposphere storm tracks occupy more limited longitudinal sectors, with many of the individual storms possibly triggered from the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the spiral band of activity.

Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Unimodality of wave amplitude in the northern Hemisphere

A novel statistic for local wave amplitude of the 500-hPa geopotential height field is introduced. The statistic uses a Hilbert transform to define a longitudinal wave envelope and dynamical latitude weighting to define the latitudes of interest. Here it is used to detect the existence, or otherwise, of multimodality in its distribution function. The empirical distribution function for the 1960-2000 period is close to a Weibull distribution with shape parameters between 2 and 3. There is substantial interdecadal variability but no apparent local multimodality or bimodality. The zonally averaged wave amplitude, akin to the more usual wave amplitude index, is close to being normally distributed. This is consistent with the central limit theorem, which applies to the construction of the wave amplitude index. For the period 1960-70 it is found that there is apparent bimodality in this index. However, the different amplitudes are realized at different longitudes, so there is no bimodality at any single longitude. As a corollary, it is found that many commonly used statistics to detect multimodality in atmospheric fields potentially satisfy the assumptions underlying the central limit theorem and therefore can only show approximately normal distributions. The author concludes that these techniques may therefore be suboptimal to detect any multimodality.