Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Control of flowering time in temperate cereals: genes, domestication, and sustainable productivity

The control of flowering is central to reproductive success in plants, and has a major impact on grain yield in crop species. The global importance of temperate cereal crops such as wheat and barley has meant emphasis has long been placed on understanding the genetics of flowering in order to enhance yield. Leads gained from the dissection of the molecular genetics of model species have combined with comparative genetic approaches, recently resulting in the isolation of the first flowering time genes in wheat and barley. This paper reviews the genetics and genes involved in cereal flowering pathways and the current understanding of how two of the principal genes, Vrn and Ppd, have been involved in domestication and adaptation to local environments, and the implications for future breeding programmes are discussed.

R&D offshoring and the productivity growth of European regions

The recent increase in R&D offshoring has raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of ‘hollowing out’. At the same time, economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which R&D offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of European regions. We find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth, but this positive effect fades with the number of investment projects carried out abroad. A large and positive correlation emerges between the extent of R&D offshoring and the home region productivity growth, supporting the idea that carrying out R&D abroad strengthens European competitiveness.

The development of the Virtual Construction Simulator 3: an interactive simulation environment for construction management education

This paper discusses the development of the Virtual Construction Simulator (VCS) 3 - a simulation game-based educational tool for teaching construction schedule planning and management. The VCS3 simulation game engages students in learning the concepts of planning and managing construction schedules through goal driven exploration, employed strategies, and immediate feedback. Through the planning and simulation mode, students learn the difference between the as-planned and as-built schedules resulting from varying factors such as resource availability, weather and labor productivity. This paper focuses on the development of the VCS3 and its construction physics model. Challenges inherent in the process of identifying variables and their relationships to reliably represent and simulate the dynamic nature of planning and managing of construction projects are also addressed.

Age and firm growth: evidence from three European countries

This article provides new insights into the dependence of firm growth on age along the entire distribution of growth rates, and conditional on survival. Using data from the European firms in a global economy survey, and adopting a quantile regression approach, we uncover evidence for a sample of French, Italian and Spanish manufacturing firms with more than ten employees in the period from 2001 to 2008. We find that: (1) young firms grow faster than old firms, especially in the highest growth quantiles; (2) young firms face the same probability of declining as their older counterparts; (3) results are robust to the inclusion of other firms’ characteristics such as labor productivity, capital intensity and the financial structure; (4) high growth is associated with younger chief executive officers and other attributes that capture the attitude of the firm toward growth and change. The effect of age on firm growth is rather similar across countries.

Marine protected areas in artisanal fisheries: a spatial bio-economic model based on observations in Costa Rica and Tanzania

In many lower-income countries, the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) involves significant opportunity costs for artisanal fishers, reflected in changes in how they allocate their labor in response to the MPA. The resource economics literature rarely addresses such labor allocation decisions of artisanal fishers and how, in turn, these contribute to the impact of MPAs on fish stocks, yield, and income. This paper develops a spatial bio-economic model of a fishery adjacent to a village of people who allocate their labor between fishing and on-shore wage opportunities to establish a spatial Nash equilibrium at a steady state fish stock in response to various locations for no-take zone MPAs and managed access MPAs. Villagers’ fishing location decisions are based on distance costs, fishing returns, and wages. Here, the MPA location determines its impact on fish stocks, fish yield, and villager income due to distance costs, congestion, and fish dispersal. Incorporating wage labor opportunities into the framework allows examination of the MPA’s impact on rural incomes, with results determining that win-wins between yield and stocks occur in very different MPA locations than do win-wins between income and stocks. Similarly, villagers in a high-wage setting face a lower burden from MPAs than do those in low-wage settings. Motivated by issues of central importance in Tanzania and Costa Rica, we impose various policies on this fishery – location specific no-take zones, increasing on-shore wages, and restricting MPA access to a subset of villagers – to analyze the impact of an MPA on fish stocks and rural incomes in such settings.

Long-term effectiveness of sowing high and low diversity seed mixtures to enhance plant community development on ex-arable fields

Questions: How is succession on ex-arable land affected by sowing high and low diversity mixtures of grassland species as compared to natural succession? How long do effects persist? Location: Experimental plots installed in the Czech Republic, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Methods: The experiment was established on ex-arable land, with five blocks, each containing three 10 m x 10 m experiment tal plots: natural colonization, a low- (four species) and high-diversity (15 species) seed mixture. Species composition and biomass was followed for eight years. Results: The sown plants considerably affected the whole successional pathway and the effects persisted during the whole eight year period. Whilst the proportion of sown species (characterized by their cover) increased during the study period, the number of sown species started to decrease from the third season onwards. Sowing caused suppression of natural colonizing species, and the sown plots had more biomass. These effects were on average larger in the high diversity mixtures. However, the low diversity replicate sown with the mixture that produced the largest biomass or largest suppression of natural colonizers fell within the range recorded at the five replicates of the high diversity plots. The natural colonization plots usually had the highest total species richness and lowest productivity at the end of the observation period. Conclusions: The effect of sowing demonstrated dispersal limitation as a factor controlling the rate of early secondary succession. Diversity was important primarily for its 'insurance effect': the high diversity mixtures were always able to compensate for the failure of some species.

Inbreeding depression and founder diversity among captive and free-living populations of the endangered pink pigeon Columba mayeri

The endemic pink pigeon has recovered from less than 20 birds in the mid-1970s to 355 free-living individuals in 2003. A major concern for the species' recovery has been the potential genetic problem of inbreeding. Captive pink pigeons bred for reintroduction were managed to maximise founder representation and minimise inbreeding. In this paper, we quantify the effect of inbreeding on survival and reproductive parameters in captive and wild populations and quantify DNA sequence variation in the mitochondrial d-loop region for pink pigeon founders. Inbreeding affected egg fertility, squab, juvenile and adult survival, but effects were strongest in highly inbred birds (F≥0.25). Inbreeding depression was more apparent in free-living birds where even moderate levels of inbreeding affected survival, although highly inbred birds were equally compromised in both captive and wild populations. Mitochondrial DNA haplotypic diversity in pink pigeon founders is low, suggesting that background inbreeding is contributing to low fertility and depressed productivity in this species, as well as comparable survival of some groups of non-inbred and nominally inbred birds. Management of wild populations has boosted population growth and may be required long-term to offset the negative effects of inbreeding depression and enhance the species' survival.

Environmental quality and the productive workplace

A good working environment will help to provide the user with a good sense of wellbeing, inspiration and comfort. The main advantages of good environments is in terms of reduced upgrading investment, reduced sickness absence, an optimum level of productivity and improved overall satisfaction. Individuals respond very differently to their environments and research suggests a correlation between worker productivity and well-being, environmental, social and organisational factors. Research shows the occupants who report a high level of dissatisfaction about their job are usually the people who suffer more work and office environment related illnesses which affect their wellbeing, but not always so. Well-being expresses overall satisfaction. There is a connection between dissatisfied staff and low productivity; and a good sense of well-being is very important as it can lead to substantial productivity gain. If the environment is particularly bad people will be dissatisfied irrespective of job satisfaction. This paper describes research showing how environment affects productivity.

Global vegetation and terrestrial carbon cycle changes after the last ice age

•In current models, the ecophysiological effects of CO2 create both woody thickening and terrestrial carbon uptake, as observed now, and forest cover and terrestrial carbon storage increases that took place after the last glacial maximum (LGM). Here, we aimed to assess the realism of modelled vegetation and carbon storage changes between LGM and the pre-industrial Holocene (PIH). •We applied Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX), a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), with lowered CO2 and LGM climate anomalies from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP II), and compared the model results with palaeodata. •Modelled global gross primary production was reduced by 27–36% and carbon storage by 550–694 Pg C compared with PIH. Comparable reductions have been estimated from stable isotopes. The modelled areal reduction of forests is broadly consistent with pollen records. Despite reduced productivity and biomass, tropical forests accounted for a greater proportion of modelled land carbon storage at LGM (28–32%) than at PIH (25%). •The agreement between palaeodata and model results for LGM is consistent with the hypothesis that the ecophysiological effects of CO2 influence tree–grass competition and vegetation productivity, and suggests that these effects are also at work today.

Post-occupancy studies of an office environment: Energy performance and occupants’ satisfaction

It is generally accepted that the physical workplace environment affects employees’ satisfaction and, consequently, their perceived productivity and well-being. This study investigated whether employee “satisfaction” variables can predict perceived productivity, well-being and enjoyment at work, and if so, to what extent. The study also explored whether limiting employees’ control over their environment could save energy without compromising employees’ satisfaction and perceived productivity. Preoccupancy and post-occupancy evaluation studies were conducted, in terms of both energy consumption and employee perceptions, to make comparisons between a company’s old and current headquarters buildings, both located in the same area of London. The results showed that employees were more satisfied with their work environment at their new HQ, in general, than with that of their previous office. Also, employees’ self-reported productivity, well-being and enjoyment at work improved after the move. It was revealed that the combination of employees’ level of satisfaction with “interior use of space” and “physical conditions” was the best predictor of their perceived productivity, while satisfaction with “indoor facilities” was not a good predictor. In terms of energy performance, although the new HQ’s energy consumption per m2 was significantly less than that of the previous building, there was still a gap between the refurbishment design target and the actual performance of the building. The findings suggest that this gap could be due to a number of factors, including an ineffective use of interior space, and occupants’ behaviour.

Youth unemployment and vocational training

This paper focuses on the determinants of the labor market situation of young people in developed countries and the developing world, with a particular emphasis on the role of vocational training and education policies. We highlight the role of demographic factors, economic growth and labor market institutions in explaining young people's transition into work. Subsequently, we assess differences between the setup and functioning of the vocational education and training policies across major world regions as an important driver of differential labor market situation of youth. Based on our analysis, we argue in favor of vocational education and training systems combining work experience and general education and provide some policy recommendations regarding the implementation of education and training systems adapted to a country's economic and institutional context.