The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate

A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earth’s surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a “weak vortex event,” anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correlated with surface weather and lead to positive temperature anomalies over eastern North America of more than 1.5 K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to −3 K. Associated with this is an increase in high-latitude blocking in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and a decrease in European blocking. The corresponding signals are weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they are shown to be related to cold-air outbreaks over North America. Because of the importance of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for seasonal climate predictability, identifying the type of stratospheric variability in order to capture the correct surface response will be necessary.

Immersive Projection for biochemical pattern matching

In all biological processes, protein molecules and other small molecules interact to function and form transient macromolecular complexes. This interaction of two or more molecules can be described by a docking event. Docking is an important phase for structure-based drug design strategies, as it can be used as a method to simulate protein-ligand interactions. Various docking programs exist that allow automated docking, but most of them have limited visualization and user interaction. It would be advantageous if scientists could visualize the molecules participating in the docking process, manipulate their structures and manually dock them before submitting the new conformations to an automated docking process in an immersive environment, which can help stimulate the design/docking process. This also could greatly reduce docking time and resources. To achieve this, we propose a new virtual modelling/docking program, whereby the advantages of virtual modelling programs and the efficiency of the algorithms in existing docking programs will be merged.

A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part III. Polar vortex evolution and vertical structure

The evolution of the Arctic polar vortex during observed major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is investigated for the period 1957-2002, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) and temperature fields. Time-lag composites of vertically weighted PV, calculated relative to the SSW onset time, are derived for both vortex displacement SSWs and vortex splitting SSWs, by averaging over the 15 recorded displacement and 13 splitting events. The evolving vertical structure of the polar vortex during a typical SSW of each type is clearly illustrated by plotting an isosurface of the composite PV field, and is shown to be very close to that observed during representative individual events. Results are verified by comparison with an elliptical diagnostic vortex moment technique. For both types of SSW, little variation is found between individual events in the orientation of the developing vortex relative to the underlying topography, i.e. the location of the vortex during SSWs of each type is largely fixed in relation to the Earth’s surface. During each type of SSW, the vortex is found to have a distinctive vertical structure. Vortex splitting events are typically barotropic, with the vortex split occurring near-simultaneously over a large altitude range (20-40 km). In the majority of cases, of the two daughter vortices formed, it is the ‘Siberian’ vortex that dominates over its ‘Canadian’ counterpart. In contrast, displacement events are characterized by a very clear baroclinic structure; the vortex tilts significantly westward with height, so that the top and bottom of the vortex are separated by nearly 180◦ longitude before the upper vortex is sheared away and destroyed.

The Splitting of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere, September 2002: Dynamical Evolution

The polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) split dramatically during September 2002. The large-scale dynamical effects were manifest throughout the stratosphere and upper troposphere, corresponding to two distinct cyclonic centers in the upper troposphere–stratosphere system. High-resolution (T511) ECMWF analyses, supplemented by analyses from the Met Office, are used to present a detailed dynamical analysis of the event. First, the anomalous evolution of the SH polar vortex is placed in the context of the evolution that is usually witnessed during spring. Then high-resolution fields of potential vorticity (PV) from ECMWF are used to reveal several dynamical features of the split. Vortex fragments are rapidly sheared out into sheets of high (modulus) PV, which subsequently roll up into distinct synoptic-scale vortices. It is proposed that the stratospheric circulation becomes hydrodynamically unstable through a significant depth of the troposphere–stratosphere system as the polar vortex elongates.

Illustration of micro-scale advection using grid-pattern mini-lysimeters

Twenty-five small soil-filled perspex boxes arranged in a square, with dwarf sunflowers growing in them, were used to study micro-scale advection. Hydrological heterogeneity was introduced by applying two different amounts of irrigation water (low-irrigation, L, versus high-irrigation, H). The nine central boxes (4 H, 4 L and I bare box) were precision weighing lysimeters, yielding diurnal measurements of evaporation. After the onset of soil water stress, a large difference in latent heat flux (up to 4-fold) was observed between the lysimeters of the H and L treatments, mainly caused by large differences between H and L stomatal conductance values. This resulted in micro-advection, causing H soil-sunflower systems to evaporate well above equilibrium latent heat flux. The occurrence of micro-advective enhancement was reflected in large values of the Priestley-Taylor constant (often larger than 2.0) and generally negative values of sensible heat flux for the H treatment. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are inversely coupled during regulation of negative affect and predict the diurnal pattern of cortisol secretion among older adults

Among younger adults, the ability to willfully regulate negative affect, enabling effective responses to stressful experiences, engages regions of prefrontal cortex (PFC) and the amygdala. Because regions of PFC and the amygdala are known to influence the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, here we test whether PFC and amygdala responses during emotion regulation predict the diurnal pattern of salivary cortisol secretion. We also test whether PFC and amygdala regions are engaged during emotion regulation in older (62- to 64-year-old) rather than younger individuals. We measured brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging as participants regulated (increased or decreased) their affective responses or attended to negative picture stimuli. We also collected saliva samples for 1 week at home for cortisol assay. Consistent with previous work in younger samples, increasing negative affect resulted in ventral lateral, dorsolateral, and dorsomedial regions of PFC and amygdala activation. In contrast to previous work, decreasing negative affect did not produce the predicted robust pattern of higher PFC and lower amygdala activation. Individuals demonstrating the predicted effect (decrease s attend in the amygdala), however, exhibited higher signal in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) for the same contrast. Furthermore, participants displaying higher VMPFC and lower amygdala signal when decreasing compared with the attention control condition evidenced steeper, more normative declines in cortisol over the course of the day. Individual differences yielded the predicted link between brain function while reducing negative affect in the laboratory and diurnal regulation of endocrine activity in the home environment.

Assimilation of stratospheric ozone from MIPAS into a global general-circulation model: The September 2002 vortex split

Ozone and temperature profiles from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) have been assimilated, using three-dimensional variational assimilation, into a stratosphere troposphere version of the Met Office numerical weather-prediction system. Analyses are made for the month of September 2002, when there was an unprecedented split in the southern hemisphere polar vortex. The analyses are validated against independent ozone observations from sondes, limb-occultation and total column ozone satellite instruments. Through most of the stratosphere, precision varies from 5 to 15%, and biases are 15% or less of the analysed field. Problems remain in the vortex and below the 60 hPa. level, especially at the tropopause where the analyses have too much ozone and poor agreement with independent data. Analysis problems are largely a result of the model rather than the data, giving confidence in the MIPAS ozone retrievals, though there may be a small high bias in MIPAS ozone in the lower stratosphere. Model issues include an excessive Brewer-Dobson circulation, which results both from known problems with the tracer transport scheme and from the data assimilation of dynamical variables. The extreme conditions of the vortex split reveal large differences between existing linear ozone photochemistry schemes. Despite these issues, the ozone analyses are able to successfully describe the ozone hole split and compare well to other studies of this event. Recommendations are made for the further development of the ozone assimilation system.

A pattern language for goals

Previous work has established the value of goal-oriented approaches to requirements engineering. Achieving clarity and agreement about stakeholders’ goals and assumptions is critical for building successful software systems and managing their subsequent evolution. In general, this decision-making process requires stakeholders to understand the implications of decisions outside the domains of their own expertise. Hence it is important to support goal negotiation and decision making with description languages that are both precise and expressive, yet easy to grasp. This paper presents work in progress to develop a pattern language for describing goal refinement graphs. The language has a simple graphical notation, which is supported by a prototype editor tool, and a symbolic notation based on modal logic.

Discriminative pattern mining in software fault detection

We present a method to enhance fault localization for software systems based on a frequent pattern mining algorithm. Our method is based on a large set of test cases for a given set of programs in which faults can be detected. The test executions are recorded as function call trees. Based on test oracles the tests can be classified into successful and failing tests. A frequent pattern mining algorithm is used to identify frequent subtrees in successful and failing test executions. This information is used to rank functions according to their likelihood of containing a fault. The ranking suggests an order in which to examine the functions during fault analysis. We validate our approach experimentally using a subset of Siemens benchmark programs.