Understanding African easterly waves: a moist singular vector approach

Moist singular vectors (MSV) have been applied successfully to predicting mid-latitude storms growing in association with latent heat of condensation. Tropical cyclone sensitivity has also been assessed. Extending this approach to more general tropical weather systems here, MSVs are evaluated for understanding and predicting African easterly waves, given the importance of moist processes in their development. First results, without initial moisture perturbations, suggest MSVs may be used advantageously. Perturbations bear similar structural and energy profiles to previous idealised non-linear studies and observations. Strong sensitivities prevail in the metrics and trajectories chosen, and benefits of initial moisture perturbations should be appraised. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Why we need new spectacles: Mapping the experiential dimension in prehistoric Cretan landscapes

The Bronze to Iron Age transition in Crete, a period of state collapse and insecurity, saw the island's rugged, high-contrast topography used in striking new ways. The visual drama of many of the new site locations has stimulated significant research over the last hundred years, with explanation of the change as the main focus. The new sites are not monumental in character: the vast majority are settlements, and much of the information about them comes from survey. Perhaps as a result, the new site map has not been much studied from phenomenological perspectives. A focus on the visual and experiential aspects of the new landscape can offer valuable insights into social structures at this period, and illuminate social developments prefiguring the emergence of polis states in Crete by c. 700 BC. To develop, share and evaluate this type of integrated study, digital reconstructive techniques are still under-used in this region. I highlight their potential value in addressing a regularly-identified shortcoming of phenomenological approaches-their necessarily subjective emphasis.

'Operation motorway': landscapes of construction on England's M1 motorway

Recent years have seen an increasing number of academics attempt to write more process-oriented and 'nonrepresentational' accounts of landscape. Drawing upon this literature, I discuss a number of the movements, materialities, and practices entailed in constructing England's M1 motorway in the late 1950s. The performances, movements and durability of a diverse range of things-including earth-moving machines, public relations brochures, maps, helicopters, senior engineers, aggregate and labourers-are shown to be important to the construction and ordering of the motorway and spaces of the construction company in different times and spaces, with people's experiences or understandings of construction, both now and in the past, emerging through memories, talk and embodied encounters with architectures, texts and artefacts which are assembled, circulated and/or archived. Aerial perspectives assumed a prominent role in depictions of construction, while journalists and engineers frequently drew upon a military vocabulary and alluded to the military nature of the project when discussing the motorway. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seascapes and landscapes in Orkney and northern Scotland

Much of what has been written and researched about the chambered cairns of Orkney and northern mainland Scotland has concentrated on constructing complex monument typologies. This paper investigates the monuments' locations with specific reference to the sea, especially their visibility. Indeed, in relation to location and visibility, it is the outer form of the monuments that makes the greatest perceptual impact. A complex typology of monument forms is abandoned in favour of two basic and distinct types: round and elongated cairns. The cairns in both areas are sited in similar topographical locations. In Orkney many were located to be visible from the sea, in mainland northern Scotland they were sited to be visible from the likely areas of settlement.

Why we need new spectacles: Mapping the experiential dimension in prehistoric Cretan landscapes

The Bronze to Iron Age transition in Crete, a period of state collapse and insecurity, saw the island's rugged, high-contrast topography used in striking new ways. The visual drama of many of the new site locations has stimulated significant research over the last hundred years, with explanation of the change as the main focus. The new sites are not monumental in character: the vast majority are settlements, and much of the information about them comes from survey. Perhaps as a result, the new site map has not been much studied from phenomenological perspectives. A focus on the visual and experiential aspects of the new landscape can offer valuable insights into social structures at this period, and illuminate social developments prefiguring the emergence of polis states in Crete by c. 700 BC. To develop, share and evaluate this type of integrated study, digital reconstructive techniques are still under-used in this region. I highlight their potential value in addressing a regularly-identified shortcoming of phenomenological approaches-their necessarily subjective emphasis.

A singular vector perspective of 4DVAR: The spatial structure and evolution of baroclinic weather systems

The extent to which the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is able to use information about the time evolution of the atmosphere to infer the vertical spatial structure of baroclinic weather systems is investigated. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 4DVAR observability matrix is introduced as a novel technique to examine the spatial structure of analysis increments. Specific results are illustrated using 4DVAR analyses and SVD within an idealized 2D Eady model setting. Three different aspects are investigated. The first aspect considers correcting errors that result in normal-mode growth or decay. The results show that 4DVAR performs well at correcting growing errors but not decaying errors. Although it is possible for 4DVAR to correct decaying errors, the assimilation of observations can be detrimental to a forecast because 4DVAR is likely to add growing errors instead of correcting decaying errors. The second aspect shows that the singular values of the observability matrix are a useful tool to identify the optimal spatial and temporal locations for the observations. The results show that the ability to extract the time-evolution information can be maximized by placing the observations far apart in time. The third aspect considers correcting errors that result in nonmodal rapid growth. 4DVAR is able to use the model dynamics to infer some of the vertical structure. However, the specification of the case-dependent background error variances plays a crucial role.

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) combines the information from a time sequence of observations with the model dynamics and a background state to produce an analysis. In this paper, a new mathematical insight into the behaviour of 4D-Var is gained from an extension of concepts that are used to assess the qualitative information content of observations in satellite retrievals. It is shown that the 4D-Var analysis increments can be written as a linear combination of the singular vectors of a matrix which is a function of both the observational and the forecast model systems. This formulation is used to consider the filtering and interpolating aspects of 4D-Var using idealized case-studies based on a simple model of baroclinic instability. The results of the 4D-Var case-studies exhibit the reconstruction of the state in unobserved regions as a consequence of the interpolation of observations through time. The results also exhibit the filtering of components with small spatial scales that correspond to noise, and the filtering of structures in unobserved regions. The singular vector perspective gives a very clear view of this filtering and interpolating by the 4D-Var algorithm and shows that the appropriate specification of the a priori statistics is vital to extract the largest possible amount of useful information from the observations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Organic farming in isolated landscapes does not benefit flower-visiting insects and pollination

Organic farming has often been found to provide benefits for biodiversity, but the benefits can depend on the species considered and characteristics of the surrounding landscape. In an intensively farmed area of Northeast Italy we investigated whether isolated organic farms, in a conventionally farmed landscape, provided local benefits for insect pollinators and pollination services. We quantified the relative effects of local management (i.e. the farm system), landscape management (proportion of surrounding uncultivated land) and interactions between them. We compared six organic and six conventional vine fields. The proportion of surrounding uncultivated land was calculated for each site at radii of 200, 500, 1000 and 2000 m. The organic fields did not differ from the conventional in their floral resources or proportion of surrounding uncultivated land. Data were collected on pollinator abundance and species richness, visitation rates to, and pollination of experimental potted plants. None of these factors were significantly affected by the farming system. The abundance of visits to the potted plants in the conventional fields tended to be negatively affected by the proportion of surrounding uncultivated land. The proportion fruit set, weight of seeds per plant and seed weight in conventional and organic fields were all negatively affected by the proportion of surrounding uncultivated land. In vine fields the impact of the surrounding landscape was stronger than the local management. Enhancement of biodiversity through organic farming should not be assumed to be ubiquitous, as potential benefits may be offset by the crop type, organicmanagement practices and the specific habitat requirements in the surrounding landscape.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Testing solutions in grass-dominated landscapes: a review of current research

In this paper we review the experimental development of agri-environment measures for use on grasslands. Sward structure has been shown to have a strong influence on birds' ability to forage in grasslands, but the effects of food abundance on foraging behaviour are poorly understood and this hinders development of grassland conservation measures. The experiments described have a dual purpose: to investigate the foraging ecology of birds on grasslands and to test candidate management measures. Most of the work featured focuses on increasing invertebrate food resources during the summer by increasing habitat heterogeneity. We also identify important gaps in the habitats provided by existing or experimental measures, where similar dual-purpose experiments are required.