Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Bis(hydroxy-isoindolinone)s: synthesis, stereochemistry, polymer chemistry, and supramolecular assembly

Pseudoacid chlorides of 2,5-bis(4-fluorobenzoyl) terephthalic acid and 4,6-bis(4-fluorobenzoyl) isophthalic acid condense with primary amines to afford diastereomeric bis(hydroxyindolinone)s in good isolated yields and with diamines to give high molecular weight poly(hydroxyindolinone)s. Bis-N-pyrenemethyl bis(hydroxyindolinone)s assemble, even in dipolar solvents such as DMSO, with macrocyclic diimide-sulfones to give [3]pseudorotaxanes stabilized by electronically complementary aromatic π−π-stacking and shape-complementary van der Waals interactions.

Statistical deconvolution of enthalpic energetic contributions to MHC-peptide binding affinity

Background: MHC Class I molecules present antigenic peptides to cytotoxic T cells, which forms an integral part of the adaptive immune response. Peptides are bound within a groove formed by the MHC heavy chain. Previous approaches to MHC Class I-peptide binding prediction have largely concentrated on the peptide anchor residues located at the P2 and C-terminus positions. Results: A large dataset comprising MHC-peptide structural complexes was created by remodelling pre-determined x-ray crystallographic structures. Static energetic analysis, following energy minimisation, was performed on the dataset in order to characterise interactions between bound peptides and the MHC Class I molecule, partitioning the interactions within the groove into van der Waals, electrostatic and total non-bonded energy contributions. Conclusion: The QSAR techniques of Genetic Function Approximation (GFA) and Genetic Partial Least Squares (G/PLS) algorithms were used to identify key interactions between the two molecules by comparing the calculated energy values with experimentally-determined BL50 data. Although the peptide termini binding interactions help ensure the stability of the MHC Class I-peptide complex, the central region of the peptide is also important in defining the specificity of the interaction. As thermodynamic studies indicate that peptide association and dissociation may be driven entropically, it may be necessary to incorporate entropic contributions into future calculations.

Design of a turn-linker-turn foldamer by incorporating meta-amino benzoic acid in the middle of a helix forming hexapeptide sequence: A helix breaking approach

Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies reveal that the incorporation of meta-amino benzoic acid in the middle of a helix forming hexapeptide sequence such as in peptide I Boc-Ile(1)-Aib(2)-Val(3)-m-ABA(4)-Ile(5)-Aib(6)-Leu(7)-OMe (Aib: alpha-amino isobutyric acid: m-ABA: meta-amino benzoic acid) breaks the helix propagation to produce a turn-linker-turn (T-L-T) foldamer in the solid state. In the crystalline state two conformational isomers of peptide I self-assemble in antiparallel fashion through intermolecular hydrogen bonds and aromatic pi-pi interactions to form a molecular duplex. The duplexes are further interconnected through intermolecular hydrogen bonds to form a layer of peptides. The layers are stacked one on top of the other through van der Waals interactions to form hydrophilic channels filled with solvent methanol. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Formation of fibrillar structures through self-assembly of designed peptide turns

Three tripeptides Boc-Phe-Aib-Val-OMe (1), Boc-Leu-Aib-p-NA-NO2 (2) and Boc-Pro-Aib-m-NA-NO2 (3) (Aib: alpha-aminoisobutyric acid; p- and m-NA: para- and meta-nitroaniline) have been designed by incorporating aromatic rings to study the self-assembly and fibril formation. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies show that all the peptides adopt turn-like structures that are self-assembled through intermolecular hydrogen bonds and van der Waals interactions to create layers of beta-sheets. Solvent dependent NMR titration and CD studies show that the turn structures of the peptides also exist in the solution phase. The field emission scanning electron microscopic (FE-SEM) images of the peptides in the solid state reveal fibrillar structures of flat morphology that are formed through beta-sheet mediated self-assembly of the preorganized turn building blocks.

Design of supramolecular beta-sheet forming beta-turns containing aromatic rings and non-coded alpha-aminoisobutyric acid and the formation of flat fibrillar structures through self-assembly

Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies show that the three designed tripeptides Boc-Leu-Aib-m-NA-NO2 (I), Boc-Phe-Aib-m-NA-NO2 (II) and Boc-Pro-Aib-m-ABA-OMe (III) (Aib, -aminoisobutyric acid; m-NA, m-nitroaniline; m-ABA, m-aminobenzoic acid; Boc, t-butyloxycarbonyl) containing aromatic rings in the backbones adopt -turn structures that are self-assembled through intermolecular hydrogen bonds and van der Waals interactions to create layers of -sheets. Solvent-dependent NMR titration and CD studies show that the -turn structures of the peptides also exist in the solution phase. The field emission scanning electron microscopic and transmission electron microscopic images of the peptides in the solid state reveal fibrillar structures of flat morphology that are formed through -sheet mediated self-assembly of the preorganised -turn building blocks.

Geometrical isomers of [TEAH][Co(L-Se)(2)]center dot xH(2)O: synthesis, structural, spectroscopic and computational studies

Trans-1, [HNEt3][Co-III(L-Se)(2)]center dot H2O and cis-1, [HNEt3][Co-III(L-Se)(2)]center dot 3H(2)O have been synthesized and characterized by single-crystal X-ray studies. The counter ion Et3NH+ plays a crucial role in the crystal packing leading to the formation of two distinctly different supramolecular assemblies in the two complexes. In trans-1, Co-bisphenolate units and triethylamine molecules are arranged in a linear fashion leading to a supramolecular columnar assembly along the crystallographic a-axis. In this assembly, triethylammonium ions are sandwiched between successive Co-bisphenolate units and act as gluing agents joining Co-bisphenolate units on either side through C-H center dot center dot center dot pi interactions. In sharp contrast to trans-1, Co-bisphenolate units and triethylammonium ions in cis-1 are arranged in a helical supramolecular assembly through similar C-H center dot center dot center dot pi interactions along the crystallographic b-axis. The Se center dot center dot center dot Se van der Waals interactions may be responsible for the predominant occurrence of the cis-isomer. The cyclic voltammetric studies showed quasi-reversible waves for the cobalt(III) -> cobalt(II) reductions with E-1/2 = 0.635 and 0.628 V vs. Ag/AgCl for cis-1 (at similar to 5 degrees C) and trans-1 (at similar to 25 degrees C), respectively. DFT calculations show that the trans-form is the thermodynamic product with higher stability than the cis-one, which is consistent with the variable temperature H-1 NMR studies

Development of novel brush-type chiral stationary phases based on terpenoid selectors: HPLC evaluation and theoretical investigation of enantioselective binding interactions

The terpenoid chiral selectors dehydroabietic acid, 12,14-dinitrodehydroabietic acid and friedelin have been covalently linked to silica gel yielding three chiral stationary phases CSP 1, CSP 2 and CSP 3, respectively. The enantiodiscriminating capability of each one of these phases was evaluated by HPLC with four families of chiral aromatic compounds composed of alcohols, amines, phenylalanine and tryptophan amino acid derivatives and beta-lactams. The CSP 3 phase, containing a selector with a large friedelane backbone is particularly suitable for resolving free alcohols and their derivatives bearing fluorine substituents, while CSP 2 with a dehydroabietic architecture is the only phase that efficiently discriminates 1, 1'-binaphthol atropisomers. CSP 3 also gives efficient resolution of the free amines. All three phases resolve well the racemates of N-trifluoracetyl and N-3,5-dinitrobenzoyl phenylalanine amino acid ester derivatives. Good enantioseparation of beta-lactams and N-benzoyl tryptophan amino acid derivatives was achieved on CSP 1. In order to understand the structural factors that govern the chiral molecular recognition ability of these phases, molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in the gas phase with binary diastereomeric complexes formed by the selectors of CSP 1 and CSP 2 and several amino acid derivatives. Decomposition of molecular mechanics energies shows that van der Waals interactions dominate the formation of the diastereomeric transient complexes while the electrostatic binding interactions are primarily responsible for the enantioselective binding of the (R)- and (S)-analytes. Analysis of the hydrogen bonds shows that electrostatic interactions are mainly associated with the formation of N-(HO)-O-...=C enantio selective hydrogen bonds between the amide binding sites from the selectors and the carbonyl groups of the analytes. The role of mobile phase polarity, a mixture of n-hexane and propan-2-ol in different ratios, was also evaluated through molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and crystal structure of [(BU4N)-B-n][Er(pic)(4)] center dot 5.5H(2)O: a new infrared emitter

The new erbium(III) complex of picolinic acid (Hpic), ["Bu4N][Er(pic)(4)].5.5H(2)O, was synthesized and the crystal structure determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The compound was further characterized using IR, Raman, H-1 NMR and elemental analysis. The picolinate ligands (pic(-)) are coordinated through N,O-chelation to the erbium cations, as shown by X-ray diffraction and spectroscopic results, leading to an eight coordinate complex. Photoluminescence measurements were performed for this compound which exhibits infrared emission. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of motor symptoms and functional impact in prodromal and early Huntington disease.

The Functional Rating Scale Taskforce for pre-Huntington Disease (FuRST-pHD) is a multinational, multidisciplinary initiative with the goal of developing a data-driven, comprehensive, psychometrically sound, rating scale for assessing symptoms and functional ability in prodromal and early Huntington disease (HD) gene expansion carriers. The process involves input from numerous sources to identify relevant symptom domains, including HD individuals, caregivers, and experts from a variety of fields, as well as knowledge gained from the analysis of data from ongoing large-scale studies in HD using existing clinical scales. This is an iterative process in which an ongoing series of field tests in prodromal (prHD) and early HD individuals provides the team with data on which to make decisions regarding which questions should undergo further development or testing and which should be excluded. We report here the development and assessment of the first iteration of interview questions aimed to assess functional impact of motor manifestations in prHD and early HD individuals.

Nano structures through self-assembly of protected hydrophobic amino acids: encapsulation of rhodamine B dye by proline-based nanovesicles

The development of novel molecules for the creation of nanometer structures with specific properties has been the current interest of this research. We have developed a set of molecules from hydrophobic omega- and alpha-amino acids by protecting the -NH(2) with Boc (t-butyloxycarbonyl) group and -CO(2)H with para-nitroanilide such as BocHN-Xx-CONH-(p-NO(2))center dot C(6)H(4), where Xx is gamma-aminobutyric acid (gamma-Abu), (L)-isoleucine, alpha-aminoisobutyric acid, proline, etc. These molecules generate various nanometer structures, such as nanofibrils, nanotubes and nanovesicles, in methanol/water through the self-assembly of bilayers in which the nitro benzene moieties are stacked in the middle and the Boc-protected amino acids parts are packed in the outer surface. The bilayers can be further stacked one over the other through hydrophobic interactions to form multilayer structure, which helps to generate different kinds of nanoscopic structures. The formation of the nanostructures has been facilitated through the participation of various noncovalent interactions, such as hydrophobic interactions, hydrogen bonding and aromatic p-stacking interactions. Fluorescence microscopy and UV studies reveal that the nanovesicles generated from pro-based molecule can encapsulate dye molecules which can be released by addition of acid (at pH 2). These single amino acid based molecules are both easy to synthesize and cost-effective and therefore offer novel scaffolds for the future design of nanoscale structures.