Monthly average temperature modelling

This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured. The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteorological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal aspects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which increased (El Nino) and decreased (La Nina) the temperature values, and (2) a component due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains. In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spatial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature.

Uso del espacio de cazadores recolectores y paleoambiente Holoceno en el Valle del Río Cisnes de Aisén, Chile

This paper presents results on archaeological research conducted at the Cisnes river basin (~44° S), valley which passes through several environments in western Patagonia, from the westernmost limits of the steppe to the Pacific channels. These are assessed in light of a palaeoenvironmental reconstruction spanning from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene. Results allow interpreting different ways for approaching the environment; these are exposed both spatially and chronologically. Cultural units defined occupied the space discontinuously and ranking it differentially attending to environmental variability. We correlate our data with available archaeological information for Aisén and adjacent areas. Additionally, we discuss cultural continuity and eventual interaction of steppe hunter-gatherers with peoples from the western archipelagic area.