The 2002 US Farm Bill: what's in it for CAP reform?

The 2002 U.S. Farm Bill (the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act or FSRIA) provides considerably more government subsidies for U.S. agriculture than Congress envisaged when it passed the preceding 1996–2002 FAIR Act. We review the FAIR record, showing how government subsidies increased greatly beyond those originally scheduled. For FSRIA, we outline key commodity, trade, and conservation and environmental provisions. We expect that the commodity programmes will: (a) encourage production when the market calls for less; (b) significantly increase subsidies over FAIR baseline subsidies; (c) press against current WTO and possible Doha Round support limits; and (d) aggravate trading partners. Finally, we suggest two lessons from the U.S. policy experience that might benefit those working on CAP and WTO reform. First, past research shows that farm programmes have little to do with the economic health of rural communities. Second, programme transparency, and especially public disclosure of the level of payments going to individual farmers, by name, influences the farm policy debate. Personalized data show what economists have long maintained—that the bulk of programme benefits go to a relatively few, large, producers—but do so in a way that captures the public and policy-makers' attention

The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time-series

This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long-term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short-term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long-term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property-backed stock returns in the UK.

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using conditional variance models selected by information criteria

This paper uses appropriately modified information criteria to select models from the GARCH family, which are subsequently used for predicting US dollar exchange rate return volatility. The out of sample forecast accuracy of models chosen in this manner compares favourably on mean absolute error grounds, although less favourably on mean squared error grounds, with those generated by the commonly used GARCH(1, 1) model. An examination of the orders of models selected by the criteria reveals that (1, 1) models are typically selected less than 20% of the time.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Gas-phase rate coefficients for the reactions of O(3P), S(3P), Se(3P), and Te(3P) with alkenes: application of perturbation frontier molecular orbital theory, correlations, and structure-activity relations (SARs)

The kinetics of the reactions of the atoms O(P-3), S(P-3), Se(P-3), and Te((3)p) with a series of alkenes are examined for correlations relating the logarithms of the rate coefficients to the energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals (HOMOs) of the alkenes. These correlations may be employed to predict rate coefficients from the calculated HOMO energy of any other alkene of interest. The rate coefficients obtained from the correlations were used to formulate structure-activity relations (SARs) for reactions of O((3)p), S(P-3), Se (P-3), and Te((3)p) with alkenes. A comparison of the values predicted by both the correlations and the SARs with experimental data where they exist allowed us to assess the reliability of our method. We demonstrate the applicability of perturbation frontier molecular orbital theory to gas-phase reactions of these atoms with alkenes. The correlations are apparently not applicable to reactions of C(P-3), Si(P-3), N(S-4), and Al(P-2) atoms with alkenes, a conclusion that could be explained in terms of a different mechanism for reaction of these atoms.

The sea-level conundrum: case studies from palaeo-archives

Uncertainties in sea-level projections for the 21st century have focused ice sheet modelling efforts to include the processes that are thought to be contributing to the recently observed rapid changes at ice sheet margins. This effort is still in its infancy, however, leaving us unable to make reliable predictions of ice sheet responses to a warming climate if such glacier accelerations were to increase in size and frequency. The geological record, however, has long identified examples of nonlinear ice sheet response to climate forcing (Shackleton NJ, Opdyke ND. 1973. Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of equatorial Pacific core V28–239, late Pliocene to latest Pleistocene. Geological Society of America Memoirs145: 449–464; Fairbanks RG. 1989. A 17,000 year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep ocean circulation. Nature342: 637–642; Bard E, Hamelin B, Arnold M, Montaggioni L, Cabioch G, Faure G, Rougerie F. 1996. Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge. Nature382: 241–244), thus suggesting an alternative strategy for constraining the rate and magnitude of sea-level change that we might expect by the end of this century. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Kinetic studies of reactions of organosilylenes: what have they taught us?

Rate constants for bimolecular reactions, obtained through time-resolved kinetic studies both in the gas and liquid phases are reviewed. Data for reactions of MeSiH, PhSiH, ClSiH, SiCl2, SiMe2, MeSiPh, SiPh2 and SiMes(2) are covered. Where possible, substituent effects relative to SiH2 have been obtained. These demonstrate widely varying effects between different types of reaction, which aids mechanistic understanding. Reactivities are high for all silylenes, but substituents can reduce them by both electronic and steric effects. The gas and liquid phase data (mainly for SiMe2) are compared and appear to be reasonably consistent. This review, although detailed, is not comprehensive.

Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis

This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy employed matter for the precision of details, yet they often agree on some general trends. Thus, pass-through to import prices has declined in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, pass-through to export prices remains country-specific and pass-through to consumer prices is nowadays negligible in all three economies we considered.

Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

CO intake fraction and city ventilation rate in Hong Kong

Given the background of serious urban pollution in Hong Kong, the intake fraction (iF) of carbon monoxide due to mobile vehicles in urban area of Hong Kong is investigated and estimated to be 600 per million, much higher than those in US urban areas, Helsinki and even Beijing, indicating the high exposure level to urban pollutants in Hong Kong. The dependence of iF to the metrological factors is also discussed. Easterly and northerly winds contribute most to the total iF value. A new method of predicting ventilation rate for a city based on iF concept is proposed. City ventilation rates for different cities are calculated and compared. It is found that Hong Kong has to face the fact that it has the lowest ventilation rate and ACH.

A rate and state friction law for saline ice

Sea ice friction models are necessary to predict the nature of interactions between sea ice floes. These interactions are of interest on a range of scales, for example, to predict loads on engineering structures in icy waters or to understand the basin-scale motion of sea ice. Many models use Amonton's friction law due to its simplicity. More advanced models allow for hydrodynamic lubrication and refreezing of asperities; however, modeling these processes leads to greatly increased complexity. In this paper we propose, by analogy with rock physics, that a rate- and state-dependent friction law allows us to incorporate memory (and thus the effects of lubrication and bonding) into ice friction models without a great increase in complexity. We support this proposal with experimental data on both the laboratory (∼0.1 m) and ice tank (∼1 m) scale. These experiments show that the effects of static contact under normal load can be incorporated into a friction model. We find the parameters for a first-order rate and state model to be A = 0.310, B = 0.382, and μ0 = 0.872. Such a model then allows us to make predictions about the nature of memory effects in moving ice-ice contacts.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Does foreign investment affect US office real estate prices?

his article examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on U.S. office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001–2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions, the authors model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. Employing several econometric techniques to analyze the data, the results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 U.S. metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis point increase in foreign share of total investment in a U.S. metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis point decrease in the market cap rate.

Gender and the business cycle: an analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8-1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.