Type-1 error inflation in the traditional by-participant analysis to metamemory accuracy: a generalized mixed-effects model perspective

In order to examine metacognitive accuracy (i.e., the relationship between metacognitive judgment and memory performance), researchers often rely on by-participant analysis, where metacognitive accuracy (e.g., resolution, as measured by the gamma coefficient or signal detection measures) is computed for each participant and the computed values are entered into group-level statistical tests such as the t-test. In the current work, we argue that the by-participant analysis, regardless of the accuracy measurements used, would produce a substantial inflation of Type-1 error rates, when a random item effect is present. A mixed-effects model is proposed as a way to effectively address the issue, and our simulation studies examining Type-1 error rates indeed showed superior performance of mixed-effects model analysis as compared to the conventional by-participant analysis. We also present real data applications to illustrate further strengths of mixed-effects model analysis. Our findings imply that caution is needed when using the by-participant analysis, and recommend the mixed-effects model analysis.

Gonadotrophins modulate hormone secretion and steady-state mRNA levels for activin receptors (type I, IIA, IIB) and inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) in granulosa and theca cells from chicken prehierarchical and preovulatory follicles

Ovarian follicle development is regulated through endocrine and local mechanisms. Increasing evidence indicates roles for transforming growth factor beta superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. We recently identified divergent expression of mRNAs encoding activin receptors (ActR) and inhibin co-receptor betaglycan in chicken follicles at different stages of maturation. Here, we compare the actions of LH and FSH (0, 1, 10, 100 ng/ml) on levels of mRNA for ActRI, ActRIIA, ActRIIB and betaglycan in chicken granulosa and theca cells (GC and TC) from preovulatory (F1) and prehierarchical (6-8 mm) follicles. The expression of mRNAs for LH-R and FSH-R and production of inhibin A, oestradiol and progesterone were also quantified. FSH decreased ActRIIB and ActRI mRNA levels in 6-8 mm GC, whereas LH increased the mRNA levels. Both LH and FSH enhanced ActRIIA (5- and 8.5-fold) and betaglycan mRNA expression (2- and 3.5-fold) in 6-8 mm GC. In 6-8 mm TC, LH and FSH both increased the betaglycan mRNA level (7- and 3.5-fold respectively) but did not affect ActRI, ActRIIA and ActRIIB transcript levels. In F1 GC, both LH and FSH stimulated ActRI (2- and 2.4-fold), ActRIIB (3.2- and 2.7-fold) and betaglycan (7- and 4-fold) mRNA levels, while ActRIIA mRNA was unaffected. In F1 TC, LH and FSH reduced ActRIIA (35-50%) and increased (4.5- and 7.6-fold) betaglycan mRNA, but had no effect on ActRI and ActRIIB transcript levels. Results support the hypothesis that expression of ActR and betaglycan are differentially regulated by gonadotrophins during follicle maturation in the hen. This may represent an important mechanism for fine-tuning follicle responsiveness to local and systemic activins and inhibins.

Differential expression of mRNAs encoding co-receptor (betaglycan) and activin type-I preovulatory and prehierarchical follicles of the putative inhibin and type-II receptors in the laying hen ovary

Ovarian follicle development is primarily regulated by an interplay between the pituitary gonadotrophins, LH and FSH, and ovary-derived steroids. Increasing evidence implicates regulatory roles of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. The aim of this study was to identify the expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors of the inhibin/activin system in ovarian follicles ranging from 4 mm in diameter to the dominant F1 follicle (similar to 40 turn). Ovaries were collected (n=16) from inid-sequence hens maintained on a long-day photoschedule (16h of light:8 h of darkness). All follicles removed were dissected into individual granulosa and thecal layers. RNA was extracted and cDNA synthesized. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify the expression of niRNA encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type-I, -IIA and -IIB) and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH); receptor expression data were normalized to GAPDH expression. Detectable levels of ActRI, -IIA and -IIB and the inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) expression were found in all granulosa and thecal layers analysed. Granulosa ActRI mRNA peaked (P < 0(.)05) in 8-9(.)9 mm follicles, whereas ActRIIA rose significantly from 6-7(.)9 mm to 8-9(.)9 nun, before filling to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (3-fold) to F1 levels. Granulosa betaglycan niRNA expression rose 3-fold from 4-5(.)9 min to 8-9(.)9 mm, before falling 4-fold to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (4-fold) to F1 levels. ActRIIB levels did not vary significantly during follicular development. Thecal ActRI mRNA expression was similar from 4-7(.)9 mm then decreased significantly to a nadir at the F4 position, before increasing 2-fold to the F1 (P < 0(.)05). Although thecal ActRIIB and -IIA expression did not vary significantly from 4 nim to F3, ActRIIB expression increased significantly (2-fold) from F3 to F1 and ActIIA, increased 22-fold from F2 to F1 (P < 0(.)05). Thecal betaglycan fell to a nadir at F6 after follicle selection; levels then increased significantly to F2, before filling similar to 50% in the F I. In all follicles studied expression of betaglycan and ActRI (granulosa: 1-0(.)65, P < 0-001, n=144/group; theca: r=0(.)49, P < 0-001, n=144/group) was well correlated. No significant correlations were identified between betaglycan and ActRIIA or -IIB. Considering all follicles analysed, granulosa mRNA expression of betaglycan, ActRI ActRIIA and ActRIIB were all significantly lower than in corresponding thecal tissue (betaglycan, 11(.)4-fold; ActRIIB, 5(.)1-fold; ActR(.) 3-8-fold: ActRIIA, 2(.)8-fold). The co-localization of type-I and -II activin receptors and betaglycan on granulosa and thecal cells are consistent with a local auto/paracrine role of inhibins and activins in modulating ovarian follicle development, selection and progression in the domestic fowl.

Variation in pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding the putative inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) and type-I and type-II activin receptors during the chicken ovulatory cycle

Secretion of LH and FSH from the anterior pituitary is regulated primarily by hypothalamic GnRH and ovarian steroid hormones. More recent evidence indicates regulatory roles for certain members of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF beta) superfamily including inhibin and activin. The aim of this study was to identify expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors and ligands of the inhibin/activin system in the hen pituitary gland and to monitor their expression throughout the 24-25-h ovulatory cycle. Hens maintained on long days (16 h light/8 h dark) were killed 20, 12, 6 and 2 h before predicted ovulation of a midsequence egg (n = 8 per group). Anterior pituitary glands were removed, RNA extracted and cDNA synthesized. Plasma concentrations of LH, FSH, progesterone and inhibin A were measured. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type I, IIA), GnRH receptor (GnP,H-R), LH beta subunit, FSH beta subunit and GAPDH. Levels of mRNA for inhibin/activin beta A and beta B subunits, inhibin alpha subunit, follistatin and ActRIIB mRNA in pituitary were undetectable by quantitative PCR (< 2 amol/reaction). Significant changes in expression (P < 0.05) of ActRIIA and betaglycan mRNA were found, both peaking 6 h before ovulation just prior to the preovulatory LH surge and reaching a nadir 2 h before ovulation, just after the LH surge. There were no significant changes in expression of ActRI mRNA throughout the cycle although values were correlated with mRNA levels for both ActRIIA (r=0.77; P < 0.001) and betaglycan (r=0.45; P < 0.01). Expression of GnRH-R mRNA was lowest 20 h before ovulation and highest (P < 0.05) 6 h before ovulation; values were weakly correlated with betaglycan (r=0.33; P=0.06) and ActRIIA (r=0.34; P=0.06) mRNA levels. Expression of mRNAs encoding LH beta and FSH beta subunit were both lowest (P < 0.05) after the LH surge, 2 h before ovulation. These results are consistent with an endocrine, but not a local intrapituitary, role of inhibin-related proteins in modulating gonadotroph function during the ovulatory cycle of the hen, potentially through interaction with betaglycan and ActRIIA. In contrast to mammals, intrapituitary expression of inhibin/activin subunits and follistatin appears to be extremely low or absent in the domestic fowl.

Variation in pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding the putative inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) and type-I and type-II activin receptors during the chicken ovulatory cycle

Secretion of LH and FSH from the anterior pituitary is regulated primarily by hypothalamic GnRH and ovarian steroid hormones. More recent evidence indicates regulatory roles for certain members of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF beta) superfamily including inhibin and activin. The aim of this study was to identify expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors and ligands of the inhibin/activin system in the hen pituitary gland and to monitor their expression throughout the 24-25-h ovulatory cycle. Hens maintained on long days (16 h light/8 h dark) were killed 20, 12, 6 and 2 h before predicted ovulation of a midsequence egg (n = 8 per group). Anterior pituitary glands were removed, RNA extracted and cDNA synthesized. Plasma concentrations of LH, FSH, progesterone and inhibin A were measured. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type I, IIA), GnRH receptor (GnP,H-R), LH beta subunit, FSH beta subunit and GAPDH. Levels of mRNA for inhibin/activin beta A and beta B subunits, inhibin alpha subunit, follistatin and ActRIIB mRNA in pituitary were undetectable by quantitative PCR (< 2 amol/reaction). Significant changes in expression (P < 0.05) of ActRIIA and betaglycan mRNA were found, both peaking 6 h before ovulation just prior to the preovulatory LH surge and reaching a nadir 2 h before ovulation, just after the LH surge. There were no significant changes in expression of ActRI mRNA throughout the cycle although values were correlated with mRNA levels for both ActRIIA (r=0.77; P < 0.001) and betaglycan (r=0.45; P < 0.01). Expression of GnRH-R mRNA was lowest 20 h before ovulation and highest (P < 0.05) 6 h before ovulation; values were weakly correlated with betaglycan (r=0.33; P=0.06) and ActRIIA (r=0.34; P=0.06) mRNA levels. Expression of mRNAs encoding LH beta and FSH beta subunit were both lowest (P < 0.05) after the LH surge, 2 h before ovulation. These results are consistent with an endocrine, but not a local intrapituitary, role of inhibin-related proteins in modulating gonadotroph function during the ovulatory cycle of the hen, potentially through interaction with betaglycan and ActRIIA. In contrast to mammals, intrapituitary expression of inhibin/activin subunits and follistatin appears to be extremely low or absent in the domestic fowl.

Differential expression of mRNAs encoding co-receptor (betaglycan) and activin type-I preovulatory and prehierarchical follicles of the putative inhibin and type-II receptors in the laying hen ovary

Ovarian follicle development is primarily regulated by an interplay between the pituitary gonadotrophins, LH and FSH, and ovary-derived steroids. Increasing evidence implicates regulatory roles of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. The aim of this study was to identify the expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors of the inhibin/activin system in ovarian follicles ranging from 4 mm in diameter to the dominant F1 follicle (similar to 40 turn). Ovaries were collected (n=16) from inid-sequence hens maintained on a long-day photoschedule (16h of light:8 h of darkness). All follicles removed were dissected into individual granulosa and thecal layers. RNA was extracted and cDNA synthesized. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify the expression of niRNA encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type-I, -IIA and -IIB) and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH); receptor expression data were normalized to GAPDH expression. Detectable levels of ActRI, -IIA and -IIB and the inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) expression were found in all granulosa and thecal layers analysed. Granulosa ActRI mRNA peaked (P < 0(.)05) in 8-9(.)9 mm follicles, whereas ActRIIA rose significantly from 6-7(.)9 mm to 8-9(.)9 nun, before filling to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (3-fold) to F1 levels. Granulosa betaglycan niRNA expression rose 3-fold from 4-5(.)9 min to 8-9(.)9 mm, before falling 4-fold to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (4-fold) to F1 levels. ActRIIB levels did not vary significantly during follicular development. Thecal ActRI mRNA expression was similar from 4-7(.)9 mm then decreased significantly to a nadir at the F4 position, before increasing 2-fold to the F1 (P < 0(.)05). Although thecal ActRIIB and -IIA expression did not vary significantly from 4 nim to F3, ActRIIB expression increased significantly (2-fold) from F3 to F1 and ActIIA, increased 22-fold from F2 to F1 (P < 0(.)05). Thecal betaglycan fell to a nadir at F6 after follicle selection; levels then increased significantly to F2, before filling similar to 50% in the F I. In all follicles studied expression of betaglycan and ActRI (granulosa: 1-0(.)65, P < 0-001, n=144/group; theca: r=0(.)49, P < 0-001, n=144/group) was well correlated. No significant correlations were identified between betaglycan and ActRIIA or -IIB. Considering all follicles analysed, granulosa mRNA expression of betaglycan, ActRI ActRIIA and ActRIIB were all significantly lower than in corresponding thecal tissue (betaglycan, 11(.)4-fold; ActRIIB, 5(.)1-fold; ActR(.) 3-8-fold: ActRIIA, 2(.)8-fold). The co-localization of type-I and -II activin receptors and betaglycan on granulosa and thecal cells are consistent with a local auto/paracrine role of inhibins and activins in modulating ovarian follicle development, selection and progression in the domestic fowl.

Biomimetic approach to Galbulimina type I alkaloids

On treatment with trifluoroacetic acid the tetraene precursor 23 underwent Boc deprotection, condensation and an iminium ion accelerated intramolecular Diels-Alder cycloaddition resulting in an iminium species 12, which was further converted into himbacine 1, himbeline 3 and himandravine 4, three out of four Galbulimina type I alkaloids thus providing strong evidence for the proposed biogenesis of this important family of alkaloids.

Amphioxus type I keratin cDNA and the evolution of intermediate filament genes

We report the cloning of an intermediate filament (IF) cDNA from the cephalochordate amphioxus that encodes a protein assignable to the type I keratin group. This is the first type I keratin reported from an invertebrate. Molecular phylogenetic analyses reveal that amphioxus also possesses a type II keratin, and that the genes encoding short-rod IF proteins underwent different patterns of duplication in vertebrates and their closest relatives, the cephalochordates. Extensive IF gene duplication and divergence may have facilitated the origin of new specialised cell types in vertebrates.

The role of myeloid receptors on murine plasmacytoid dendritic cells in induction of type I interferon

This study tested the hypothesis that a set of predominantly myeloid restricted receptors (F4/80, CD36, Dectin-1, CD200 receptor and mannan binding lectins) and the broadly expressed CD200 played a role in a key function of plasmacytoid DC (pDC), virally induced type I interferon (IFN) production. The Dectin-1 ligands zymosan, glucan phosphate and the anti-Dectin-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) 2A11 had no effect on influenza virus induced IFNα/β production by murine splenic pDC. However, mannan, a broad blocking reagent against mannose specific receptors, inhibited IFNα/β production by pDC in response to inactivated influenza virus. Moreover, viral glycoproteins (influenza virus haemagglutinin and HIV-1 gp120) stimulated IFNα/β production by splenocytes in a mannan-inhibitable manner, implicating the function of a lectin in glycoprotein induced IFN production. Lastly, the effect of CD200 on IFN induction was investigated. CD200 knock-out macrophages produced more IFNα than wild-type macrophages in response to polyI:C, a MyD88-independent stimulus, consistent with CD200's known inhibitory effect on myeloid cells. In contrast, blocking CD200 with an anti-CD200 mAb resulted in reduced IFNα production by pDC-containing splenocytes in response to CpG and influenza virus (MyD88-dependent stimuli). This suggests there could be a differential effect of CD200 on MyD88 dependent and independent IFN induction pathways in pDC and macrophages. This study supports the hypothesis that a mannan-inhibitable lectin and CD200 are involved in virally induced type I IFN induction.

Meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes within a paper: Possible misuse and Type-1 error inflation

In recent years an increasing number of papers have employed meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes of researchers’ own series of studies within a single paper (“internal meta-analysis”). Although this approach has the obvious advantage of obtaining narrower confidence intervals, we show that it could inadvertently inflate false-positive rates if researchers are motivated to use internal meta-analysis in order to obtain a significant overall effect. Specifically, if one decides whether to stop or continue a further replication experiment depending on the significance of the results in an internal meta-analysis, false-positive rates would increase beyond the nominal level. We conducted a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to demonstrate our argument, and provided a literature review to gauge awareness and prevalence of this issue. Furthermore, we made several recommendations when using internal meta-analysis to make a judgment on statistical significance.

An adaptive approach to implementing bivariate group sequential clinical trial designs

In clinical trials, situations often arise where more than one response from each patient is of interest; and it is required that any decision to stop the study be based upon some or all of these measures simultaneously. Theory for the design of sequential experiments with simultaneous bivariate responses is described by Jennison and Turnbull (Jennison, C., Turnbull, B. W. (1993). Group sequential tests for bivariate response: interim analyses of clinical trials with both efficacy and safety endpoints. Biometrics 49:741-752) and Cook and Farewell (Cook, R. J., Farewell, V. T. (1994). Guidelines for monitoring efficacy and toxicity responses in clinical trials. Biometrics 50:1146-1152) in the context of one efficacy and one safety response. These expositions are in terms of normally distributed data with known covariance. The methods proposed require specification of the correlation, ρ between test statistics monitored as part of the sequential test. It can be difficult to quantify ρ and previous authors have suggested simply taking the lowest plausible value, as this will guarantee power. This paper begins with an illustration of the effect that inappropriate specification of ρ can have on the preservation of trial error rates. It is shown that both the type I error and the power can be adversely affected. As a possible solution to this problem, formulas are provided for the calculation of correlation from data collected as part of the trial. An adaptive approach is proposed and evaluated that makes use of these formulas and an example is provided to illustrate the method. Attention is restricted to the bivariate case for ease of computation, although the formulas derived are applicable in the general multivariate case.

Incorporating data received after a sequential trial has stopped into the final analysis: implementation and comparison of methods

In a sequential clinical trial, accrual of data on patients often continues after the stopping criterion for the study has been met. This is termed “overrunning.” Overrunning occurs mainly when the primary response from each patient is measured after some extended observation period. The objective of this article is to compare two methods of allowing for overrunning. In particular, simulation studies are reported that assess the two procedures in terms of how well they maintain the intended type I error rate. The effect on power resulting from the incorporation of “overrunning data” using the two procedures is evaluated.

An adaptive group sequential design for phase II/III clinical trials that select a single treatment from several

There is increasing interest in combining Phases II and III of clinical development into a single trial in which one of a small number of competing experimental treatments is ultimately selected and where a valid comparison is made between this treatment and the control treatment. Such a trial usually proceeds in stages, with the least promising experimental treatments dropped as soon as possible. In this paper we present a highly flexible design that uses adaptive group sequential methodology to monitor an order statistic. By using this approach, it is possible to design a trial which can have any number of stages, begins with any number of experimental treatments, and permits any number of these to continue at any stage. The test statistic used is based upon efficient scores, so the method can be easily applied to binary, ordinal, failure time, or normally distributed outcomes. The method is illustrated with an example, and simulations are conducted to investigate its type I error rate and power under a range of scenarios.