Measures of observation impact in non-Gaussian data assimilation

ABSTRACT Non-Gaussian/non-linear data assimilation is becoming an increasingly important area of research in the Geosciences as the resolution and non-linearity of models are increased and more and more non-linear observation operators are being used. In this study, we look at the effect of relaxing the assumption of a Gaussian prior on the impact of observations within the data assimilation system. Three different measures of observation impact are studied: the sensitivity of the posterior mean to the observations, mutual information and relative entropy. The sensitivity of the posterior mean is derived analytically when the prior is modelled by a simplified Gaussian mixture and the observation errors are Gaussian. It is found that the sensitivity is a strong function of the value of the observation and proportional to the posterior variance. Similarly, relative entropy is found to be a strong function of the value of the observation. However, the errors in estimating these two measures using a Gaussian approximation to the prior can differ significantly. This hampers conclusions about the effect of the non-Gaussian prior on observation impact. Mutual information does not depend on the value of the observation and is seen to be close to its Gaussian approximation. These findings are illustrated with the particle filter applied to the Lorenz ’63 system. This article is concluded with a discussion of the appropriateness of these measures of observation impact for different situations.

The measurement of self-complexity: A comparison of H and SC measures

Greater self-complexity has been suggested as a protective factor for people under stress (Linville, 1985). Two different measures have been proposed to assess individual self-complexity: Attneave’s H statistic (1959) and a composite index of two components of self-complexity (SC; Rafaeli-Mor et al., 1999). Using mood-incongruent recall, i.e., recalling positive events while in negative mood, the present study compared validity of the two measures through reanalysis of Sakaki’s (2004) data. Results indicated that H statistic did not predict performance of mood-incongruent recall. In contrast, greater SC was associated with better mood-incongruent recall even when the effect of H statistic was controlled.

Calibration of uncertain flood inundation models using remotely sensed water levels

A traditional method of validating the performance of a flood model when remotely sensed data of the flood extent are available is to compare the predicted flood extent to that observed. The performance measure employed often uses areal pattern-matching to assess the degree to which the two extents overlap. Recently, remote sensing of flood extents using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and airborne scanning laser altimetry (LIDAR) has made more straightforward the synoptic measurement of water surface elevations along flood waterlines, and this has emphasised the possibility of using alternative performance measures based on height. This paper considers the advantages that can accrue from using a performance measure based on waterline elevations rather than one based on areal patterns of wet and dry pixels. The two measures were compared for their ability to estimate flood inundation uncertainty maps from a set of model runs carried out to span the acceptable model parameter range in a GLUE-based analysis. A 1 in 5-year flood on the Thames in 1992 was used as a test event. As is typical for UK floods, only a single SAR image of observed flood extent was available for model calibration and validation. A simple implementation of a two-dimensional flood model (LISFLOOD-FP) was used to generate model flood extents for comparison with that observed. The performance measure based on height differences of corresponding points along the observed and modelled waterlines was found to be significantly more sensitive to the channel friction parameter than the measure based on areal patterns of flood extent. The former was able to restrict the parameter range of acceptable model runs and hence reduce the number of runs necessary to generate an inundation uncertainty map. A result of this was that there was less uncertainty in the final flood risk map. The uncertainty analysis included the effects of uncertainties in the observed flood extent as well as in model parameters. The height-based measure was found to be more sensitive when increased heighting accuracy was achieved by requiring that observed waterline heights varied slowly along the reach. The technique allows for the decomposition of the reach into sections, with different effective channel friction parameters used in different sections, which in this case resulted in lower r.m.s. height differences between observed and modelled waterlines than those achieved by runs using a single friction parameter for the whole reach. However, a validation of the modelled inundation uncertainty using the calibration event showed a significant difference between the uncertainty map and the observed flood extent. While this was true for both measures, the difference was especially significant for the height-based one. This is likely to be due to the conceptually simple flood inundation model and the coarse application resolution employed in this case. The increased sensitivity of the height-based measure may lead to an increased onus being placed on the model developer in the production of a valid model

Investigation of the mechanism of agonist and inverse agonist action at D-2 dopamine receptors

This study investigated, for the D-2 dopamine receptor, the relation between the ability of agonists and inverse agonists to stabilise different states of the receptor and their relative efficacies. K-i values for agonists were determined in competition, versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]spiperone. Competition data were fitted best by a two-binding site model (with the exception of bromocriptine, for which a one-binding site model provided the best fit) and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) (G protein-coupled) and lower affinity (K-l) (G protein-uncoupled) sites determined. Ki values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]N-propylnorapomorphine (NPA) to provide a second estimate of K-h,. Maximal agonist effects (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration-response curves for agonist stimulation of guanosine-5'-O-(3-[S-32] thiotriphosphate) ([S-35]GTPgammaS) binding. The ability of agonists to stabilise the G protein-coupled state of the receptor (K-l/K-h, determined from ligand-binding assays) did not correlate with either of two measures of relative efficacy (relative E-max, Kl/EC50) of agonists determined in [S-35]GTPgammaS-binding assays, when the data for all of the compounds tested were analysed For a subset of compounds, however, there was a relation between K-l/K-h and E-max.. Competition-binding data versus [H-3]spiperone and [H-3]NPA for a range of inverse agonists were fitted best by a one-binding site model. K-i values for the inverse agonists tested were slightly lower in competition versus [H-3]NPA compared to [H-3]spiperone. These data do not provide support for the idea that inverse agonists act by binding preferentially to the ground state of the receptor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Neural correlates of cognitive dissonance and choice-induced preference change

According to many modern economic theories, actions simply reflect an individual's preferences, whereas a psychological phenomenon called “cognitive dissonance” claims that actions can also create preference. Cognitive dissonance theory states that after making a difficult choice between two equally preferred items, the act of rejecting a favorite item induces an uncomfortable feeling (cognitive dissonance), which in turn motivates individuals to change their preferences to match their prior decision (i.e., reducing preference for rejected items). Recently, however, Chen and Risen [Chen K, Risen J (2010) J Pers Soc Psychol 99:573–594] pointed out a serious methodological problem, which casts a doubt on the very existence of this choice-induced preference change as studied over the past 50 y. Here, using a proper control condition and two measures of preferences (self-report and brain activity), we found that the mere act of making a choice can change self-report preference as well as its neural representation (i.e., striatum activity), thus providing strong evidence for choice-induced preference change. Furthermore, our data indicate that the anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of cognitive dissonance on a trial-by-trial basis. Our findings provide important insights into the neural basis of how actions can alter an individual's preferences.

Cognitive emotion regulation as a mediator between posttraumatic stress symptoms and hypomanic personality within a non-clinical population

Background: There is a high prevalence of traumatic life events within individuals diagnosed with bipolar disorder. However, currently there is limited theoretical understanding of this relationship. Aims: To explore whether non-clinical symptoms of posttraumatic stress have a direct effect on the non-clinical symptoms of bipolar disorder, or whether this relationship is mediated by cognitive emotion regulation strategies. Method: A cross-sectional design within non-clinical participants completing an online survey including the Impact of Events Scale, Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire and the Hypomanic Personality Scale. Results: Posttraumatic stress symptoms were associated with hypomanic personality. Intrusive memories contributed a small but significant proportion of the variance between these two measures. Rumination of negative emotions mediated the relationship between posttraumatic stress and hypomanic personality. Conclusions: The relationship between traumatic events and an increased prevalence of bipolar disorder remains poorly understood. Further research should explore rumination as a potential target for treatment within those suffering from both posttraumatic stress and bipolar disorder.

Assessing reading at Key Stage 2: SATs as measures of children's inferential abilities

This article describes two studies. The first study was designed to investigate the ways in which the statutory assessments of reading for 11-year-old children in England assess inferential abilities. The second study was designed to investigate the levels of performance achieved in these tests in 2001 and 2002 by 11-year-old children attending state-funded local authority schools in one London borough. In the first study, content and questions used in the reading papers for the Standard Assessment Tasks (SATs) in the years 2001 and 2002 were analysed to see what types of inference were being assessed. This analysis suggested that the complexity involved in inference making and the variety of inference types that are made during the reading process are not adequately sampled in the SATs. Similar inadequacies are evident in the ways in which the programmes of study for literacy recommended by central government deal with inference. In the second study, scripts of completed SATs reading papers for 2001 and 2002 were analysed to investigate the levels of inferential ability evident in scripts of children achieving different SATs levels. The analysis in this article suggests that children who only just achieve the 'target' Level 4 do so with minimal use of inference skills. They are particularly weak in making inferences that require the application of background knowledge. Thus, many children who achieve the reading level (Level 4) expected of 11-year-olds are entering secondary education with insecure inference-making skills that have not been recognised.

Impact of menstrual cycle phase on insulin sensitivity measures and fasting lipids

There is evidence to suggest that insulin sensitivity may vary in response to changes in sex hormone levels. However, the results Of human studies designed to investigate changes in insulin sensitivity through the menstrual cycle have proved inconclusive. The aims of this Study were to 1) evaluate the impact of menstrual cycle phase on insulin sensitivity measures and 2) determine the variability Of insulin sensitivity measures within the same menstrual cycle phase. A controlled observational study of 13 healthy premenopausal women, not taking any hormone preparation and having regular menstrual cycles, was conducted. Insulin sensitivity (Si) and glucose effectiveness (Sg) were measured using an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) with minimal model analysis. Additional Surrogate measures Of insulin sensitivity were calculated (homoeostasis model for insulin resistance [HOMA IR], quantitative insulin-to-glucose check index [QUICKI] and revised QUICKI [rQUICKI]), as well as plasma lipids. Each woman was tested in the luteal and follicular phases of her Menstrual cycle, and duplicate measures were taken in one phase of the cycle. No significant differences in insulin sensitivity (measured by the IVGTT or Surrogate markers) or plasma lipids were reported between the two phases of the menstrual cycle or between duplicate measures within the same phase. It was Concluded that variability in measures of insulin sensitivity were similar within and between menstrual phases.

Comparison of two methods of presenting risk information to patients about the side effects of medicines

Objective: To determine whether the use of verbal descriptors suggested by the European Union (EU) such as "common" (1-10% frequency) and "rare" (0.01-0.1%) effectively conveys the level of risk of side effects to people taking a medicine. Design: Randomised controlled study with unconcealed allocation. Participants: 120 adults taking simvastatin or atorvastatin after cardiac surgery or myocardial infarction. Setting: Cardiac rehabilitation clinics at two hospitals in Leeds, UK. Intervention: A written statement about one of the side effects of the medicine (either constipation or pancreatitis). Within each side effect condition half the patients were given the information in verbal form and half in numerical form (for constipation, "common" or 2.5%; for pancreatitis, "rare" or 0.04%). Main outcome measure: The estimated likelihood of the side effect occurring. Other outcome measures related to the perceived severity of the side effect, its risk to health, and its effect on decisions about whether to take the medicine. Results: The mean likelihood estimate given for the constipation side effect was 34.2% in the verbal group and 8.1% in the numerical group; for pancreatitis it was 18% in the verbal group and 2.1% in the numerical group. The verbal descriptors were associated with more negative perceptions of the medicine than their equivalent numerical descriptors. Conclusions: Patients want and need understandable information about medicines and their risks and benefits. This is essential if they are to become partners in medicine taking. The use of verbal descriptors to improve the level of information about side effect risk leads to overestimation of the level of harm and may lead patients to make inappropriate decisions about whether or not they take the medicine.

Analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of robot-mediated stroke therapy

Robot-mediated therapies offer a new approach to neurorehabilitation. This paper analyses the Fugl-Meyer data from the Gentle/S project and finds that the two intervention phases (sling suspension and robot mediated therapy) have approximately equal value to the further recovery of chronic stroke subjects (on average 27 months post stroke). Both sling suspension and robot mediated interventions show a recovery over baseline and further work is needed to establish the common factors in treatment, and to establish intervention protocols for each that will give individual subjects a maximum level of recovery.

Long chain n-3 PUFA-rich meal reduced postprandial measures of arterial stiffness

Background & aims The consumption of long chain n − 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n − 3 PUFA) is known to be cardio-protective. Data on the influence of LC n − 3 PUFA on arterial stiffness in the postprandial state is limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the acute effects of a LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal on measures of arterial stiffness. Methods Twenty-five healthy subjects (12 men, 13 women) received a control and a LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal on two occasions in a random order. Arterial stiffness was measured at baseline, 30, 60, 90, 120, 180 and 240 min after meal consumption by pulse wave analysis and digital volume pulse to derive an augmentation index and a stiffness index respectively. Blood samples were taken for measurement of lipids, glucose and insulin. Results Consumption of the LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal had an attenuating effect on augmentation index (P = 0.02) and stiffness index (P = 0.03) compared with the control meal. A significant treatment effect (P = 0.036) was seen for plasma non-esterified fatty acids concentrations. Conclusions These data indicate that acute LC n − 3 PUFA-rich meal consumption can improve postprandial arterial stiffness. This has important implications for the beneficial properties of LC n − 3 PUFA and cardiovascular risk reduction.

Multiple diversity measures to identify complementary conservation areas for the Baja California peninsular cacti

The Baja California Peninsula is home to 85 species of cacti, of which 54 are endemic, highlighting its importance as a cactus diverse region within Mexico. Many species are under threat due to collection pressure and habitat loss, but ensuring maximal protection of cacti species requires a better understanding of diversity patterns. We assessed species richness, endemism, and phylogenetic and morphological diversity using herbarium records and a molecular phylogeny for 82 species of cacti found in the peninsula. The four diversity measures were estimated for the existing nature reserve network and for 314 hexagrids of 726 km2. Using the hexagrid data, we surveyed our results for areas that best complement the current protected cacti diversity in the Baja California Peninsula. Currently, the natural reserve network in Baja shelters an important amount of the cacti diversity (74% of the species, 85.9% of the phylogenetic diversity, 76% of endemics and all the growth forms). While species richness produced several solutions to complement the diversity protected, by identifying priority species (endemic species with high contribution to overall PD) one best solution is reported. Three areas (San Matías, Magdalena and Margarita Islands and El Triunfo), selected using species richness, PD and endemism, best complement the diversity currently protected, increasing species richness to 89%, PD to 94% and endemism to 89%, and should be considered in future conservation plans. Two of these areas could be included within nature reserves already established.

A sequential two meal challenge reveals abnormalities in postprandial TAG but not glucose in men with increasing numbers of metabolic syndrome components

Objective To examine the impact of increasing numbers of metabolic syndrome (MetS) components on postprandial lipaemia. Methods Healthy men (n = 112) underwent a sequential meal postprandial investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast (0 min) and lunch (330 min). Lipids and glucose were measured in the fasting sample, with triacylglycerol (TAG), non-esterified fatty acids and glucose analysed in the postprandial samples. Results Subjects were grouped according to the number of MetS components regardless of the combinations of components (0/1, 2, 3 and 4/5). As expected, there was a trend for an increase in body mass index, blood pressure, fasting TAG, glucose and insulin, and a decrease in fasting high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with increasing numbers of MetS components (P≤0.0004). A similar trend was observed for the summary measures of the postprandial TAG and glucose responses. For TAG, the area under the curve (AUC) and maximum concentration (maxC) were significantly greater in men with ≥ 3 than < 3 components (P < 0.001), whereas incremental AUC was greater in those with 3 than 0/1 and 2, and 4/5 compared with 2 components (P < 0.04). For glucose, maxC after the test breakfast (0-330 min) and total AUC (0-480 min) were higher in men with ≥ 3 than < 3 components (P≤0.001). Conclusions Our data analysis has revealed a linear trend between increasing numbers of MetS components and magnitude (AUC) of the postprandial TAG and glucose responses. Furthermore, the two meal challenge discriminated a worsening of postprandial lipaemic control in subjects with ≥ 3 MetS components.

Measuring lexical diversity among L2 learners of French: an exploration of the validity of D, MTLD and HD-D as measures of language ability

In this study two new measures of lexical diversity are tested for the first time on French. The usefulness of these measures, MTLD (McCarthy and Jarvis (2010 and this volume) ) and HD-D (McCarthy and Jarvis 2007), in predicting different aspects of language proficiency is assessed and compared with D (Malvern and Richards 1997; Malvern, Richards, Chipere and Durán 2004) and Maas (1972) in analyses of stories told by two groups of learners (n=41) of two different proficiency levels and one group of native speakers of French (n=23). The importance of careful lemmatization in studies of lexical diversity which involve highly inflected languages is also demonstrated. The paper shows that the measures of lexical diversity under study are valid proxies for language ability in that they explain up to 62 percent of the variance in French C-test scores, and up to 33 percent of the variance in a measure of complexity. The paper also provides evidence that dependence on segment size continues to be a problem for the measures of lexical diversity discussed in this paper. The paper concludes that limiting the range of text lengths or even keeping text length constant is the safest option in analysing lexical diversity.