The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Cholinergic modulation of intrinsic fibre-evoked excitatory transmission contains a nicotinic component in immature but not adult rat piriform cortex, in vitro

The piriform cortex (PC) is highly prone to epileptogenesis, particularly in immature animals, where decreased muscarinic modulation of PC intrinsic fibre excitatory neurotransmission is implicated as a likely cause. However, whether higher levels of acetylcholine (ACh) release occur in immature vs. adult PC remains unclear. We investigated this using in vitro extracellular electrophysiological recording techniques. Intrinsic fibre-evoked extracellular field potentials (EFPs) were recorded from layers II to III in PC brain slices prepared from immature (P14-18) and adult (P>40) rats. Adult and immature PC EFPs were suppressed by eserine (1muM) or neostigmine (1muM) application, with a greater suppression in immature ( approximately 40%) than adult ( approximately 30%) slices. Subsequent application of atropine (1muM) reversed EFP suppression, producing supranormal ( approximately 12%) recovery in adult slices, suggesting that suppression was solely muscarinic ACh receptor-mediated and that some 'basal' cholinergic 'tone' was present. Conversely, atropine only partially reversed anticholinesterase effects in immature slices, suggesting the presence of additional non-muscarinic modulation. Accordingly, nicotine (50muM) caused immature field suppression ( approximately 30%) that was further enhanced by neostigmine, whereas it had no effect on adult EFPs. Unlike atropine, nicotinic antagonists, mecamylamine and methyllycaconitine, induced immature supranormal field recovery ( approximately 20%) following anticholinesterase-induced suppression (with no effect on adult slices), confirming that basal cholinergic 'tone' was also present. We suggest that nicotinic inhibitory cholinergic modulation occurs in the immature rat PC intrinsic excitatory fibre system, possibly to complement the existing, weak muscarinic modulation, and could be another important developmentally regulated system governing immature PC susceptibility towards epileptogenesis.

A novel component of cannabis extract potentiates excitatory synaptic transmission in rat olfactory cortex in vitro

Cannabis is a potential treatment for epilepsy, although the few human studies supporting this use have proved inconclusive. Previously, we showed that a standardized cannabis extract (SCE), isolated Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (Delta(9)-THC), and even Delta(9)-THC-free SCE inhibited muscarinic agonist-induced epileptiform bursting in rat olfactory cortical brain slices, acting via CB1 receptors. The present work demonstrates that although Delta(9)-THC (1microM) significantly depressed evoked depolarizing postsynaptic potentials (PSPs) in rat olfactory cortex neurones, both SCE and Delta(9)-THC-free SCE significantly potentiated evoked PSPs (all results were fully reversed by the CB1 receptor antagonist SR141716A, 1microM); interestingly, the potentiation by Delta(9)-THC-free SCE was greater than that produced by SCE. On comparing the effects of Delta(9)-THC-free SCE upon evoked PSPs and artificial PSPs (aPSPs; evoked electrotonically following brief intracellular current injection), PSPs were enhanced, whereas aPSPs were unaffected, suggesting that the effect was not due to changes in background input resistance. Similar recordings made using CB1 receptor-deficient knockout mice (CB1(-/-)) and wild-type littermate controls revealed cannabinoid or extract-induced changes in membrane resistance, cell excitability and synaptic transmission in wild-type mice that were similar to those seen in rat neurones, but no effect on these properties were seen in CB1(-/-) cells. It appears that the unknown extract constituent(s) effects over-rode the suppressive effects of Delta(9)-THC on excitatory neurotransmitter release, which may explain some patients' preference for herbal cannabis rather than isolated Delta(9)-THC (due to attenuation of some of the central Delta(9)-THC side effects) and possibly account for the rare incidence of seizures in some individuals taking cannabis recreationally

Evolutionary bi-stability in pathogen transmission mode

Many pathogens transmit to new hosts by both infection (horizontal transmission) and transfer to the infected host's offspring (vertical transmission). These two transmission modes require speci®c adap- tations of the pathogen that can be mutually exclusive, resulting in a trade-off between horizontal and vertical transmission. We show that in mathematical models such trade-offs can lead to the simultaneous existence of two evolutionary stable states (evolutionary bi-stability) of allocation of resources to the two modes of transmission. We also show that jumping between evolutionary stable states can be induced by gradual environmental changes. Using quantitative PCR-based estimates of abundance in seed and vege- tative parts, we show that the pathogen of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum, has jumped between two distinct states of transmission mode twice in the past 160 years, which, based on published evidence, we interpret as adaptation to environmental change. The ®nding of evolutionary bi-stability has impli- cations for human, animal and other plant diseases. An ill-judged change in a disease control programme could cause the pathogen to evolve a new, and possibly more damaging, combination of transmission modes. Similarly, environmental changes can shift the balance between transmission modes, with adverse effects on human, animal and plant health.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.