Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Design and fabrication of infrared filters for remote sounding instrumentation

Cooled infrared filters have been used in pressure modulation and filter radiometry to measure the dynamics, temperature distribution and concentrations of atmospheric elements in various satellite radiometers. Invariably such instruments use precision infrared bandpass filters and coatings for spectral selction, often operating at cryogenic temperatures. More recent developments in the use of spectrally-selective cooled detectors in focal plane arrays have simplified the optical layout and reduced the component count of radiometers but have placed additional demands on both the spectral and physical performance requirements of the filters. This paper describes and contrasts the more traditional radiometers using discrete detectors with those which use focal plane detector array technology, with particular emphasis on the function of the filters and coatings in the two cases. Additionally we discuss the spectral techniques and materials used to fabricate infrared coatings and filters for use in space optics, and give examples of their application in the fabrication of some demanding long wavelength dichroics and filters. We also discuss the effects of the space environment on the stability and durability of high performance infrared filters and materials exposed to low Earth orbit for 69 months on the NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF).

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

Clouds and the atmospheric circulation response to warming

We study the effect of clouds on the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 quadrupling in an aquaplanet model with a slab-ocean lower boundary. The cloud effect is isolated by locking the clouds to either the control or 4xCO2 state in the shortwave (SW) or longwave (LW) radiation schemes. In our model, cloud-radiative changes explain more than half of the total poleward expansion of the Hadley cells, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks under CO2 quadrupling, even though they cause only one-fourth of the total global-mean surface warming. The effect of clouds on circulation results mainly from the SW cloud-radiative changes, which strongly enhance the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient at all levels in the troposphere, favoring stronger and poleward-shifted midlatitude eddies. By contrast, quadrupling CO2 while holding the clouds fixed causes strong polar amplification and weakened midlatitude baroclinicity at lower levels, yielding only a small poleward expansion of the circulation. Our results show that (a) the atmospheric circulation responds sensitively to cloud-driven changes in meridional and vertical temperature distribution, and (b) the spatial structure of cloud feedbacks likely plays a dominant role in the circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing. While the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud feedback are expected to be highly model-dependent, an analysis of 4xCO2 simulations of CMIP5 models shows that the SW cloud feedback likely forces a poleward expansion of the tropospheric circulation in most climate models.

Radar studies of the vertical distribution of insects migrating over southern Britain: the influence of temperature inversions on nocturnal layer concentrations

Insects migrating over two sites in southern UK (Malvern in Worcestershire, and Harpenden in Hertfordshire) have been monitored continuously with nutating vertical-looking radars (VLRs) equipped with powerful control and analysis software. These observations make possible, for the first time, a systematic investigation of the vertical distribution of insect aerial density in the atmosphere, over temporal scales ranging from the short (instantaneous vertical profiles updated every 15 min) to the very long (profiles aggregated over whole seasons or even years). In the present paper, an outline is given of some general features of insect stratification as revealed by the radars, followed by a description of occasions during warm nights in the summer months when intense insect layers developed. Some of these nocturnal layers were due to the insects flying preferentially at the top of strong surface temperature inversions, and in other cases, layering was associated with higher-altitude temperature maxima, such as those due to subsidence inversions. The layers were formed from insects of a great variety of sizes, but peaks in the mass distributions pointed to a preponderance of medium-sized noctuid moths on certain occasions.

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause.

The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is produced using an objective method of identifying cyclones based on gradients of 1-km height wet-bulb potential temperature. Cyclone track and genesis density statistics are analyzed and this method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods. The North Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Cyclones are grouped according to their genesis location and the corresponding lysis regions are identified. Most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and the sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher 1-km height relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of preexisting “parent” cyclones. The evolution characteristics of composite west and east Atlantic cyclones have been compared. The ratio of their upper- to lower-level forcing indicates that type B cyclones are predominant in both the west and east Atlantic, with strong upper- and lower-level features. Among the remaining cyclones, there is a higher proportion of type C cyclones in the east Atlantic, whereas types A and C are equally frequent in the west Atlantic.

Mass and size distribution measurement of particulates from a gas turbine combustor using modern mobility analyzer and particle sizer

SMPS and DMS500 analysers were used to measure particulate size distributions in the exhaust of a fully annular aero gas turbine engine at two operating conditions to compare and analyse sources of discrepancy. A number of different dilution ratio values were utilised for the comparative analysis, and a Dekati hot diluter operating at a temperature of 623°K was also utilised to remove volatile PM prior to measurements being made. Additional work focused on observing the effect of varying the sample line temperatures to ascertain the impact. Explanations are offered for most of the trends observed, although a new, repeatable event identified in the range from 417°K to 423°K – where there was a three order of magnitude increase in the nucleation mode of the sample – requires further study.

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Monthly average temperature modelling

This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured. The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteorological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal aspects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which increased (El Nino) and decreased (La Nina) the temperature values, and (2) a component due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains. In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spatial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature.

Habitat correlates of distribution and local population decline of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus

Habitat-based statistical models relating patterns of presence and absence of species to habitat variables could be useful to resolve conservation-related problems and highlight the causes of population declines. In this paper, we apply such a modelling approach to an endemic amphibian, the Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, considered by IUCN a critically endangered species. Sardinian newts inhabit freshwater habitat in streams, small lakes and pools on the island of Sardinia (Italy). Reported declines of newt populations are not yet supported by quantitative data, however, they are perceived or suspected across the species' historical range. This study represents a first attempt trying to statistically relate habitat characteristics to Sardinian newt occurrence and persistence. Linear regression analysis revealed that newts are more likely to be found in sites with colder water temperature, less riparian vegetation and, marginally, absence of fish. The implications of the results for the conservation of the species are discussed, and suggestions for the short-term management of newt inhabited sites suggested. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low-temperature sol-gel preparation of ordered nanoparticles of tungsten carbide/oxide

Tungsten carbide/oxide particles have been prepared by the gel precipitation of tungstic acid in the presence of an organic gelling agent [10% ammonium poly(acrylic acid) in water, supplied by Ciba Specialty Chemicals]. The feed solution; a homogeneous mixture of sodium tungstate and ammonium poly(acrylic acid) in water, was dropped from a 1-mm jet into hydrochloric acid saturated hexanol/concentrated hydrochloric acid to give particles of a mixture of tungstic acid and poly(acrylic acid), which, after drying in air at 100 degrees C and heating to 900 degrees C in argon for 2 h, followed by heating in carbon dioxide for a further 2 h and cooling, gives a mixture of WO, WC, and a trace of NaxWO3, with the carbon for the formation of WC being provided by the thermal carbonization of poly(acrylic acid). The pyrolyzed product is friable and easily broken down in a pestle and mortar to a fine powder or by ultrasonics, in water, to form a stable colloid. The temperature of carbide formation by this process is significantly lower (900 degrees C) than that reported for the commercial preparation of tungsten carbide, typically > 1400 degrees C. In addition, the need for prolonged grinding of the constituents is obviated because the reacting moieties are already in intimate contact on a molecular basis. X-ray diffraction, particle sizing, transmission electron microscopy, surface area, and pore size distribution studies have been carried out, and possible uses are suggested. A flow diagram for the process is described.

Effect of sequence distribution on the morphology, crystallization, melting, and biodegradation of poly(epsilon-caprolactone-co-epsilon-caprolactam) copolymers

Two types of poly(epsilon-caprolactone (CLo)-co-poly(epsilon-caprolactam (CLa)) copolymers were prepared by catalyzed hydrolytic ring-opening polymerization. Both cyclic comonomers were added simultaneously in the reaction medium for the First type or materials where copolymers have a random distribution of counits, as evidenced by H-1 and C-13 NMR. For the second type of copolymers, the cyclic comonomers were added sequentially, yielding diblock poly(ester-amides). The materials were characterized by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), wide- and small-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS and SAXS), and transmission and scanning electron microscopies (TEM and SEM). Their biodegradation in compost was also studied. All copolymers were found to be miscible by the absence of structure in the melt. TEM revealed that all samples exhibited a crystalline lamellar morphology. DSC and WAXS showed that in a wide composition range (CLo contents from 6 to 55%) only the CLa units were capable of crystallization in the random copolymers. The block copolymer samples only experience a small reduction of crystallization and melting temperature with composition, and this was attributed to a dilution effect caused by the miscible noncrystalline CLo units. The comparison between block and random copolymers provided a unique opportunity to distinguish the dilution effect of the CLo units on the crystallization and melting of the polyamide phase from the chemical composition effect in the random copolymers case, where the CLa sequences are interrupted statistically by the CLo units, making the crystallization of the polyamide strongly composition dependent. Finally, the enzymatic degradation of the copolymers in composted soil indicate a synergistic behavior where much faster degradation was obtained for random copolymers witha CLo content larger than 30% than for neat PCL.

Microblock ionomers: a new concept in high temperature, swelling-resistant membranes for PEM fuel cells

A novel series of polyaromatic ionomers with similar equivalent weights but very different sulphonic acid distributions along the ionomer backbone has been designed and prepared. By synthetically organising the sequence-distribution so that it consists of fully defined ionic segments (containing singlets, doublets or quadruplets of sulphonic acid groups) alternating strictly with equally well-defined nonionic spacer segments, a new class of polymers which may be described as microblock ionomers has been developed. These materials exhibit very different properties and morphologies from analogous randomly substituted systems. Progressively extending the nonionic spacer length in the repeat unit (maintaining a constant equivalent weight by increasing the degree of sulphonation. of the ionic segment) leads to an increasing degree of nanophase separation between hydrophilic and hydrophobic domains in these materials. Membranes cast from ionomers with the more highly phase-separated morphologies show significantly higher onset temperatures for uncontrolled swelling in water. This new type of ionomer design has enabled the fabrication of swelling-resistant hydrocarbon membranes, suitable for fuel cell operation, with very much higher ion exchange capacities (>2 meq g(-1)) than those previously reported in the literature. When tested in a fuel cell at high temperature (120 degrees C) and low relative humidity (35% RH), the best microblock membrane matched the performance of Nafion 112. Moreover, comparative low load cycle testing of membrane -electrode assemblies suggests that the durability of the new membranes under conditions of high temperature and low relative humidity is superior to that of conventional perfluorinated materials.