Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Technology trajectories, innovation, and the growth of biomimetics

Publication rate of patents can be a useful measure of innovation and productivity in science and technology. Patenting activity in new technological fields follows a sigmoid (S-shaped) path. Qualitative and quantitative models in management and economics literature explain why such patterns of productivity may occur. TRIZ analysis suggests that patents are generated in bursts during the evolution of a product and that they are at different levels of inventiveness. The tendency is for the inventiveness to reduce as the product is more mature. This makes it possible to guess at the lifetime stage of a product and gauge its maturity and profitability. An analysis of patenting activity and other measures of inventiveness in the emerging field of biomimetics was presented, and future trends in biologically-inspired innovation was discussed.

Truancy in secondary pupils: prevalance, trajectories and pupil perspectives

School absenteeism and particularly unauthorized absenteeism or truancy has been the focus of a number of, so far largely unsuccessful, recent policy initiatives. The paper draws upon two sources of data, the British Household Panel Survey and detailed interviews with a group of persistent truants, to consider the extent, consequences and explanations for truancy from secondary schools. Truancy increases steadily across the years of secondary school and, especially in the later years of compulsory schooling there is evidence that patterns of truancy established in one year carry on into the next. Truancy is strongly associated with negative outcomes in terms of not staying in education post-16, GCSE results and becoming unemployed. Coming from families of low socio-economic status, parents not monitoring homework, negative attitudes towards teachers and the value of education are all associated with higher levels of truancy. However, the majority of young people in these situations do not truant and there are many truants who do not have these characteristics. A major explanation given by young people themselves for their non-attendance is poor relationships with teachers, including teachers failing to match their expectations. Other factors mentioned by young people include bullying but also a more general dislike of the atmosphere of the school, sometimes associated with a change of school. There was little evidence of negative responses to the curriculum leading to truancy. It is suggested that we can distinguish between socio-economic and attitudinal factors which make young people vulnerable to truancy and precipitating events or processes which result in truanting behaviour.

Spatial and temporal aspects of oculomotor inhibition as revealed by saccade trajectories

The spatial and temporal effect of distractor related inhibition on stimulus elicited (reflexive) and goal driven (voluntary) saccades, was examined using saccade trajectory deviations as a measure. Subjects made voluntary and reflexive saccades to a target location on the vertical midline, while the distance of a distractor from the target was systematically manipulated. The trajectory curvature of both voluntary and reflexive saccades was found to be subject to individual differences. Saccade curvature was found to decrease monotonically with increasing distractor distance from target for some subjects while for others no reduction in curvature or even an increase was found. These results could not be explained by latency differences or landing position effects. The different patterns of distractor effects on saccade trajectories suggest the additional influence of a non-spatial inhibitory mechanism. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Search space pruning and global optimization of multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres

This paper deals with the design of optimal multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres. A pruning method which considers the sequential nature of the problem is presented. The method locates feasible vectors using local optimization and applies a clustering algorithm to find reduced bounding boxes which can be used in a subsequent optimization step. Since multiple local minima remain within the pruned search space, the use of a global optimization method, such as Differential Evolution, is suggested for finding solutions which are likely to be close to the global optimum. Two case studies are presented.

Search space pruning and global optimisation of Multiple Gravity Assist spacecraft trajectories

We introduce and describe the Multiple Gravity Assist problem, a global optimisation problem that is of great interest in the design of spacecraft and their trajectories. We discuss its formalization and we show, in one particular problem instance, the performance of selected state of the art heuristic global optimisation algorithms. A deterministic search space pruning algorithm is then developed and its polynomial time and space complexity derived. The algorithm is shown to achieve search space reductions of greater than six orders of magnitude, thus reducing significantly the complexity of the subsequent optimisation.

Transport in the low-latitude tropopause zone diagnosed using particle trajectories

Recent literature has described a “transition zone” between the average top of deep convection in the Tropics and the stratosphere. Here transport across this zone is investigated using an offline trajectory model. Particles were advected by the resolved winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses. For each boreal winter clusters of particles were released in the upper troposphere over the four main regions of tropical deep convection (Indonesia, central Pacific, South America, and Africa). Most particles remain in the troposphere, descending on average for every cluster. The horizontal components of 5-day trajectories are strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the Lagrangian average descent does not have a clear ENSO signature. Tropopause crossing locations are first identified by recording events when trajectories from the same release regions cross the World Meteorological Organization lapse rate tropopause. Most crossing events occur 5–15 days after release, and 30-day trajectories are sufficiently long to estimate crossing number densities. In a further two experiments slight excursions across the lapse rate tropopause are differentiated from the drift deeper into the stratosphere by defining the “tropopause zone” as a layer bounded by the average potential temperature of the lapse rate tropopause and the profile temperature minimum. Transport upward across this zone is studied using forward trajectories released from the lower bound and back trajectories arriving at the upper bound. Histograms of particle potential temperature (θ) show marked differences between the transition zone, where there is a slow spread in θ values about a peak that shifts slowly upward, and the troposphere below 350 K. There forward trajectories experience slow radiative cooling interspersed with bursts of convective heating resulting in a well-mixed distribution. In contrast θ histograms for back trajectories arriving in the stratosphere have two distinct peaks just above 300 and 350 K, indicating the sharp change from rapid convective heating in the well-mixed troposphere to slow ascent in the transition zone. Although trajectories slowly cross the tropopause zone throughout the Tropics, all three experiments show that most trajectories reaching the stratosphere from the lower troposphere within 30 days do so over the west Pacific warm pool. This preferred location moves about 30°–50° farther east in an El Niño year (1982/83) and about 30° farther west in a La Niña year (1988/89). These results could have important implications for upper-troposphere–lower-stratosphere pollution and chemistry studies.

Innovation in facilities management: from trajectories to ownership

Purpose – Innovation in facilities management (FM) is a complex process as FM is a diverse discipline. This paper aims to use innovation trajectories to explore this complex process through the introduction of a technology innovation in two FM services of security and workspace management. It also aims to consider the discourse of individuals within their trajectory to understand their positions toward the innovation. Design/methodology/approach – A two-year case study was conducted and it was based in an in-house FM department that was part of a financial institution. The specific methods used for the paper were semi-structured interviews with key participants of the project. Critical discourse analysis was used to examine the data. Findings – Individuals who were involved in introducing the technology to the FM department were both internal and external to FM as innovation in FM does not happen in isolation to the organisation. Innovation trajectories were often intertwined or occurred simultaneously during the process of a project which sometimes resulted in conflict. Tensions within the discourse of ownership of the project were particularly apparent as this discourse had a power dimension in driving the project through to implementation. Research limitations/implications – The research is limited by being a single case study so it is not possible to generalise findings but the findings may have resonances with other organisations. Originality/value – The paper presents an original idea about how to understand innovation processes in FM services.

A study of cursor trajectories of motion-impaired users

This paper describes a study of the cursor trajectories of motion-impaired users in "point and click" interactions. A characteristic of cursor movement is proposed that aims to capture the spatial distribution of cursor movement about a target. This characteristic indicates that users often exhibit increased cursor movement in the vicinity of the target, have more difficulty performing the "clicking" part of the interaction as compared to the navigation part, and tend to navigate directly toward the target during the middle portion of the cursor trajectory. The implications of these characteristic behaviours on interface design are discussed.

Optimal linearization trajectories for tangent linear models

We examine differential equations where nonlinearity is a result of the advection part of the total derivative or the use of quadratic algebraic constraints between state variables (such as the ideal gas law). We show that these types of nonlinearity can be accounted for in the tangent linear model by a suitable choice of the linearization trajectory. Using this optimal linearization trajectory, we show that the tangent linear model can be used to reproduce the exact nonlinear error growth of perturbations for more than 200 days in a quasi-geostrophic model and more than (the equivalent of) 150 days in the Lorenz 96 model. We introduce an iterative method, purely based on tangent linear integrations, that converges to this optimal linearization trajectory. The main conclusion from this article is that this iterative method can be used to account for nonlinearity in estimation problems without using the nonlinear model. We demonstrate this by performing forecast sensitivity experiments in the Lorenz 96 model and show that we are able to estimate analysis increments that improve the two-day forecast using only four backward integrations with the tangent linear model. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Reframing 'crisis' in fair trade coffee production: trajectories of agrarian change in Nicaragua

A focus on crisis provides a methodological window to understand how agrarian change shapes producer engagement in fair trade. This orientation challenges a seperation between the market and development, situating fair trade within global processes that incorporate agrarian histories of social change and conflict. Reframing crisis as a condition of agrarian life, rather than emphasizing its cyclical manifestation within the global economy, reveals how market-driven development encompasses the material conditions of peoples' existence in ambiguous and contradictory ways. Drawing on the case of coffee production in Nicaragua, experiences of crisis demonstrate that greater attention needs to be paid to the socioeconomic and political dimensions of development within regional commodity assemblages to address entrenched power relations and unequal access to land and resources. This questions moral certainties when examining the paradox of working in and against the market, and suggests that a better understanding of specific trajectories of development could improve fair trade's objective of enhancing producer livelihoods.

Rigid body trajectories in different 6D spaces

The objective of this paper is to show that the group SE(3) with an imposed Lie-Poisson structure can be used to determine the trajectory in a spatial frame of a rigid body in Euclidean space. Identical results for the trajectory are obtained in spherical and hyperbolic space by scaling the linear displacements appropriately since the influence of the moments of inertia on the trajectories tends to zero as the scaling factor increases. The semidirect product of the linear and rotational motions gives the trajectory from a body frame perspective. It is shown that this cannot be used to determine the trajectory in the spatial frame. The body frame trajectory is thus independent of the velocity coupling. In addition, it is shown that the analysis can be greatly simplified by aligning the axes of the spatial frame with the axis of symmetry which is unchanging for a natural system with no forces and rotation about an axis of symmetry.