Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Libraries and literature in Rome

A chapter of 6,000 words on books, literary culture, and public and private libraries in the ancient city of Rome

Isolation and partial characterisation of acid phosphatase isozymes from dormant oilseed of Corylus avellana L.

The acid phosphatase (orthophosphoric-monoester phosphohydrolase, EC 3.1.3.2) complement from dormant hazel (Corylus avellana L.) seeds was found to exhibit significant electrophoretic heterogeneity partially attributable to the presence of distinct molecular forms. In axiferous tissue, total acid phosphatase activity increased in a biphasic fashion during chilling, a treatment necessary to alleviate seed dormancy. Three acid phosphatase isozymes were isolated from cotyledons of dormant hazel seeds by successive ammonium sulphate precipitation, size-exclusion, Concanavalin A affinity, cation- and anion-exchange chromatographies resulting in 75-, 389- and 191-fold purification (APase1, APase2, APase3, respectively). The three glycosylated isoforms were isolated to catalytic homogeneity as determined by electrophoretic, kinetic and heat-inactivation studies. The native acid phosphatase complement of hazel seeds had an apparent Mr of 81.5±3.5 kDa as estimated by size-exclusion chromatography, while the determined pI values were 5.1 (APase1), 6.9 (APase2) and 7.3 (APase3). The optimum pH for p-nitrophenyl phosphate hydrolysis was pH 3 (APase1), pH 5.6 (APase2) and pH 6 (APase3). The hazel isozymes hydrolysed a variety of phosphorylated substrates in a non-specific manner, exhibiting low Km and the highest specificity constant (Vmax/Km) for pyrophosphate. They were not primary phytases since they could not initiate phytic acid hydrolysis, while APase2 and APase3 had significant phospho-tyrosine phosphatase activity. Inorganic phosphate was a competitive inhibitor, while activity was significantly impaired in the presence of vanadate and fluoride.

Platelet adhesion signalling and the regulation of thrombus formation

Platelets perform a central role in haemostasis and thrombosis. They adhere to subendothelial collagens exposed at sites of blood vessel injury via the glycoprotein (GP) 1b-V-IX receptor complex, GPV1 and integrin alpha(2)beta(1)-These receptors perform distinct functions in the regulation of cell signalling involving non-receptor tyrosine kinases (e.g. Src, Fyn, Lyn, Syk and Btk), adaptor proteins, phospholipase C and lipid kinases such as phosphoinositide 3-kinase. They are also coupled to an increase in cytosolic calcium levels and protein kinase C activation, leading to the secretion of paracrine/autocrine platelet factors and an increase in integrin receptor affinities. Through the binding of plasma fibrinogen and von Willebrand Factor to integrin alphaIIbbeta(3), a platelet thrombus is formed. Although increasing evidence indicates that each of the adhesion receptors GPIb-V-IX and GPV1 and integrins alpha(2)beta(1) and alpha(IIb)beta(3) contribute to the signalling that regulates this process, the individual roles of each are only beginning to be dissected. By contrast, adhesion receptor signalling through platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule 1 (PECAM-1) is implicated in the inhibition of platelet function and thrombus formation in the healthy circulation. Recent studies indicate that understanding of platelet adhesion signalling mechanisms might enable the development of new strategies to treat and prevent thrombosis.

Some new strategies for the chemical separation of actinides and lanthanides

A future goal in nuclear fuel reprocessing is the conversion or transmutation of the long-lived radioisotopes of minor actinides, such as americium, into short-lived isotopes by irradiation with neutrons. In order to achieve this transmutation, it is necessary to separate the minor actinides(III), [An(Ill)], from the lanthanides(III), [Ln(Ill)], by solvent extraction (partitioning), because the lanthanides absorb neutrons too effectively and hence limit neutron capture by the transmutable actinides. Partitioning using ligands containing only carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen atoms is desirable because they are completely incinerable and thus the final volume of waste is minimised [1]. Nitric acid media will be used in the extraction experiments because it is envisaged that the An(III)/Ln(III) separation process could take place after the PUREX process. There is no doubt that the correct design of a molecule that is capable of acting as a ligand or extraction reagent is required for the effective separation of metal ions such as actinides(III) from lanthanides. Recent attention has been directed towards heterocyclic ligands with for the preferential separation of the minor actinides. Although such molecules have a rich chemistry, this is only now becoming sufficiently well understood in relation to the partitioning process [2]. The molecules shown in Figures I and 2 will be the principal focus of this study. Although the examples chosen here are used rather specific, the guidelines can be extended to other areas such as the separation of precious metals [3].

Effects of fat on the properties of halloumi cheese

Halloumi cheese was produced from 11 bovine milks with fat contents of 1.61-4.04%, giving a range of 32-53% fat in dry matter (FDM) in the cheeses. Starter culture and/or microparticulated whey protein (Simplesse((R)) 100(E)) was also added to selected batches of milk. Hardness decreased with increasing FDM, with increase in moisture and with lower pH. On sensory evaluation, there was an increase in preference score with FDM (R-2 = 0.8). Inclusion of microparticulated whey protein may have had a fat mimetic effect, as preference scores otherwise decreased with increasing protein levels (R-2 = 0.75).

Investigating the mechanism of enhanced cytotoxicity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM in breast cancer cells

Recently we have described an HPMA copolymer conjugate carrying both the aromatase inhibitor aminoglutethimide (AGM) and doxorubicin (Dox) as combination therapy. This showed markedly enhanced in vitro cytotoxicity compared to the HPMA copolymer-Dox (FCE28068), a conjugate that demonstrated activity in chemotherapy refractory breast cancer patients during early clinical trials. To better understand the superior activity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM, here experiments were undertaken using MCF-7 and MCF-7ca (aromatase-transfected) breast cancer cell lines to: further probe the synergistic cytotoxic effects of AGM and Dox in free and conjugated form; to compare the endocytic properties of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM and HPMA copolymer-Dox (binding, rate and mechanism of cellular uptake); the rate of drug liberation by lysosomal thiol-dependant proteases (i.e. conjugate activation), and also, using immunocytochemistry, to compare their molecular mechanism of action. It was clearly shown that attachment of both drugs to the same polymer backbone was a requirement for enhanced cytotoxicity. FACS studies indicated both conjugates have a similar pattern of cell binding and endocytic uptake (at least partially via a cholesterol-dependent pathway), however, the pattern of enzyme-mediated drug liberation was distinctly different. Dox release from PK1 was linear with time, whereas the release of both Dox and AGM from HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM was not, and the initial rate of AGM release was much faster than that seen for the anthracycline. Immunocytochemistry showed that both conjugates decreased the expression of ki67. However, this effect was more marked for HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM and, moreover, only this conjugate decreased the expression of the anti-apoptotic protein bcl-2. In conclusion, the superior in vitro activity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM cannot be attributed to differences in endocytic uptake, and it seems likely that the synergistic effect of Dox and AGM is due to the kinetics of intracellular drug liberation which leads to enhanced activity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.

Inner plasma structure of the low-latitude reconnection layer

We report a clear transition through a reconnection layer at the low-latitude magnetopause which shows a complete traversal across all reconnected field lines during northwestward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The associated plasma populations confirm details of the electron and ion mixing and the time history and acceleration through the current layer. This case has low magnetic shear with a strong guide field and the reconnection layer contains a single density depletion layer on the magnetosheath side which we suggest results from nearly field-aligned magnetosheath flows. Within the reconnection boundary layer, there are two plasma boundaries, close to the inferred separatrices on the magnetosphere and magnetosheath sides (Ssp and Ssh) and two boundaries associated with the Alfvén waves (or Rotational Discontinuities, RDsp and RDsh). The data are consistent with these being launched from the reconnection site and the plasma distributions are well ordered and suggestive of the time elapsed since reconnection of the field lines observed. In each sub-layer between the boundaries the plasma distribution is different and is centered around the current sheet, responsible for magnetosheath acceleration. We show evidence for a velocity dispersion effect in the electron anisotropy that is consistent with the time elapsed since reconnection. In addition, new evidence is presented for the occurrence of partial reflection of magnetosheath electrons at the magnetopause current layer.