Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (>40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented, and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Global modelled (BIOME4) biome distributions over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. The two climate models show good agreement in global net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is strongly influenced by atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations through CO2 fertilization. The combined effects of modelled changes in vegetation and (via a simple model) soil carbon result in a global terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum that is 210–470 Pg C less than in pre-industrial time. Without the contribution from exposed glacial continental shelves the reduction would be larger, 330–960 Pg C. Other intervals of low terrestrial carbon storage include stadial intervals at 108 and 85 ka BP, and between 60 and 65 ka BP during Marine Isotope Stage 4. Terrestrial carbon storage, determined by the balance of global NPP and decomposition, influences the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater because terrestrial organic carbon is depleted in 13C. Using a simple carbon-isotope mass balance equation we find agreement in trends between modelled ocean δ13C based on modelled land carbon storage, and palaeo-archives of ocean δ13C, confirming that terrestrial carbon storage variations may be important drivers of ocean δ13C changes.

The development and contribution of surface charge by crop residues in two Malawian acid soils

The effects of maize and soya bean residues on the pH and charge of a loamy sand (Kawalazi) and a sandy clay loam (Naming'omba) from Malawi were measured to determine both the indirect effect of the residues on soil charge through the changes in pH, and the direct contribution of charge carried on the residue surfaces. The soils had pH values (10 mM CaCl2) of 4.3 and 5.0 and organic matter contents were 1.4% and 2.7%, respectively. The clay fractions were dominated by kaolinite and goethite, and mica was present in both samples. The soils were incubated for 28 days with maize (Zea mays) and soya bean (Glycine max) residues. The maximum addition of residue (12.0%) in the Kawalazi and Naming'omba soils increased the pH from 4.3 and 5.0 to 4.8 and 5.3 (maize) and to 9.0 and 8.8 (soya bean), respectively. Negative charge increased from 2.1 and 4.7 cmol(c) kg(-1) to 3.8 and 7.5 (maize) and to 5.3 and 9.3 cmol(c) kg(-1) (soya bean). Positive charge increased from 0.72 and 0.62 to 0.87 and 0.85 cmol(c) kg(-1) (maize) and to 0.75 and 0.68 (soya bean). The charge contribution by the residues was calculated by difference between the charge on a sample incubated with residue and the charge on a soil without residue limed to the same pH value. Up to 100 cmolc negative charge and 10 cmol(c) of positive charge per kg of residue were directly contributed to the soil-residue mixture, the amounts depending on the type of residue, the extent to which the residue was decomposed in the soil and the pH of the mixture. The Anderson and Sposito method [Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 55 (1991) 1569] was used to partition the permanent negative charge (holding Cs+) from variable negative charge (holding Li+). In the pH range 3.7-6.5 the maize residue contributed between 3 and 26 cmol(c) of variable charge per kg of residue in the Kawalazi soil and between 6 and 25 cmol(c) per kg of residue in the Naming'omba soil. For soya bean the values were between I and 28 and between 4 and 68 cmolc per kg of residue, respectively. At a given pH value, the charge tended to increase with time of incubation and for a given addition of residue, pH decreased during incubation. Addition of residues contributed no permanent negative charge and the charge on the soil measured by Cs adsorption was independent of pH change caused by the residue showing that the method is valid for soil-residue mixtures. With time there was a decrease in the amount of permanent charge probably due to masking as humic material become adsorbed on mineral surfaces. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear Contributions of Different Time Scales to Teleconnectivity

The contributions of different time scales to extratropical teleconnections are examined. By applying empirical orthogonal functions and correlation analyses to reanalysis data, it is shown that eddies with periods shorter than 10 days have no linear contribution to teleconnectivity. Instead, synoptic variability follows wavelike patterns along the storm tracks, interpreted as propagating baroclinic disturbances. In agreement with preceding studies, it is found that teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern occur only at low frequencies, typically for periods more than 20 days. Low-frequency potential vorticity variability is shown to follow patterns analogous to known teleconnections but with shapes that differ considerably from them. It is concluded that the role, if any, of synoptic eddies in determining and forcing teleconnections needs to be sought in nonlinear interactions with the slower transients. The present results demonstrate that daily variability of teleconnection indices cannot be interpreted in terms of the teleconnection patterns, only the slow part of the variability.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Large punctuational contribution of speciation to evolutionary divergence at the molecular level

A long-standing debate in evolutionary biology concerns whether species diverge gradually through time or by punctuational episodes at the time of speciation. We found that approximately 22% of substitutional changes at the DNA level can be attributed to punctuational evolution, and the remainder accumulates from background gradual divergence. Punctuational effects occur at more than twice the rate in plants and fungi than in animals, but the proportion of total divergence attributable to punctuational change does not vary among these groups. Punctuational changes cause departures from a clock-like tempo of evolution, suggesting that they should be accounted for in deriving dates from phylogenies. Punctuational episodes of evolution may play a larger role in promoting evolutionary divergence than has previously been appreciated.

The contribution of building research to the independence and quality of life of older people

Many nations are experiencing rapid rises in the life expectancy of their citizens. The implications of this major demographic shift are considerable offering opportunities as well as challenges to reconsider how people should spend their later years. A key task is enhancing the quality of life of older people through enabling them to continue to live independently even though illness, accident or frailty may have severely reduced their physical and sensory abilities and, possibly, mental health. Yet the needs of older people and disabled people have been largely ignored in the design of everyday consumer products, the home, transport systems and the built environment in general. Whilst the need for designers, engineers and technologists to provide products, environments and systems which are inclusive of all members of society is widely accepted, there is little understanding of how this can be achieved. In 1998 the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council established its EQUAL Initiative. This has encouraged design, engineering and technology researchers in universities to join with their colleagues from the social, medical and health sciences to investigate a wide range of issues experienced by older and disabled people and to propose solutions. Their research, which directly involves older and disabled people and, for example, social housing providers, social services departments, charities, engineering and architectural consultants, and transport firms, has been extremely successful. In a very short time it has influenced government policy on housing, long-term care, and building standards, and findings have been taken up by architects, designers, health-care professionals and bodies which represent older and disabled people.

Contribution of the double layer to transient faradaic processes: implications for hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry of nanostructures

The electrochemistry of Pt nanostructured electrodes is investigated using hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV). Here a liquid crystal templating process is used to produce platinum-modified electrodes with a range of surface areas (roughness factor 42.4-280.8). The electroreduction of molecular oxygen at these nanostructured platinum surfaces is used to demonstrate the ability of HMV to discriminate between faradaic and nonfaradaic electrode reactions. The HMV approach shows that the reduction of molecular oxygen experiences considerable signal loss within the high pseudocapacitive region of the voltammetry. Evidence for the contribution of the double layer to transient mass transfer events is presented. In addition, a model circuit and appropriate theoretical analysis are used to illustrate the transient responses of a time variant faradaic component. This in conjunction with the experimental evidence shows that, far from being a passive component in this system, the double layer can contribute to HMV faradaic reactions under certain conditions.

Lack of influence of test meal fatty acid composition on the contribution of intestinally-derived lipoproteins to postprandial lipaemia

The extent and duration of postprandial lipaemia have been linked to risk of CHD but the influence of dietary variables on, and the relative contributions of, exogenous (chylomicron) and endogenous (VLDL) triacylglycerols to the total lipaemic response have not been comprehensively evaluated. In the present study the triacylglycerol, apolipoprotein (apo) B-48 and retinyl ester (RE) responses to three test meals of varying monounsaturated (MUFA) and saturated fatty acid (SFA) content were measured in the triacylglycerol-rich lipoprotein (TRL) fraction of plasma (r ¼ 1·006 g/ml) for 9 h after meal consumption. Fifteen healthy normolipidaemic young men consumed, on separate occasions, three test meals which were identical apart from their MUFA and SFA contents. Expressed as a percentage of total energy the MUFA/SFA contents of the meals were: (1) 12 %/17 %; (2) 17 %/12% and (3) 24 %/5 %. The contribution of the intestinally-derived lipoproteins (chylomicrons) to the lipaemic response was investigated by determining the time to reach peak concentration and the total and incremental areas under the time response curves (AUC and incremental AUC) for RE, apoB-48 and triacylglycerol in the TRL fraction. No significant differences in these measurements were observed for the three meals. However, visual comparison of the postprandial responses to the three meals suggested that as meal MUFA content increased there was a tendency for the triacylglycerol, apoB-48 and RE responses to become biphasic as opposed to the typical monophasic response seen with the 12% MUFA/17% SFA meal. Comparison of the apoB-48 and RE responses for the three test meals confirmed other workers’ findings of delayed entry of RE relative to apoB-48 in TRL. The value of the two markers in investigating dietary fat absorption and metabolism is discussed.

Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change

In response to increasing atmospheric con- centrations of greenhouse gases, the rate of time- dependent climate change is determined jointly by the strength of climate feedbacks and the e�ciency of pro- cesses which remove heat from the surface into the deep ocean. This work examines the vertical heat transport processes in the ocean of the HADCM2 atmosphere± ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) in experi- ments with CO2 held constant (control) and increasing at 1% per year (anomaly). The control experiment shows that global average heat exchanges between the upper and lower ocean are dominated by the Southern Ocean, where heat is pumped downwards by the wind- driven circulation and di�uses upwards along sloping isopycnals. This is the reverse of the low-latitude balance used in upwelling±di�usion ocean models, the global average upward di�usive transport being against the temperature gradient. In the anomaly experiment, weakened convection at high latitudes leads to reduced diffusive and convective heat loss from the deep ocean, and hence to net heat uptake, since the advective heat input is less a�ected. Reduction of deep water produc- tion at high latitudes results in reduced upwelling of cold water at low latitudes, giving a further contribution to net heat uptake. On the global average, high-latitude processes thus have a controlling in¯uence. The impor- tant role of di�usion highlights the need to ensure that the schemes employed in AOGCMs give an accurate representation of the relevant sub-grid-scale processes.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

Periodic time series modeling of environmental proxy records with guaranteed positive growth rate estimation

Identifying a periodic time-series model from environmental records, without imposing the positivity of the growth rate, does not necessarily respect the time order of the data observations. Consequently, subsequent observations, sampled in the environmental archive, can be inversed on the time axis, resulting in a non-physical signal model. In this paper an optimization technique with linear constraints on the signal model parameters is proposed that prevents time inversions. The activation conditions for this constrained optimization are based upon the physical constraint of the growth rate, namely, that it cannot take values smaller than zero. The actual constraints are defined for polynomials and first-order splines as basis functions for the nonlinear contribution in the distance-time relationship. The method is compared with an existing method that eliminates the time inversions, and its noise sensitivity is tested by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the usefulness of the method is demonstrated on the measurements of the vessel density, in a mangrove tree, Rhizophora mucronata, and the measurement of Mg/Ca ratios, in a bivalve, Mytilus trossulus.

The domestic garden: its contribution to urban green infrastructure

Domestic gardens provide a significant component of urban green infrastructure but their relative contribution to eco-system service provision remains largely un-quantified. ‘Green infrastructure’ itself is often ill-defined, posing problems for planners to ascertain what types of green infrastructure provide greatest benefit and under what circumstances. Within this context the relative merits of gardens are unclear; however, at a time of greater urbanization where private gardens are increasingly seen as a ‘luxury’, it is important to define their role precisely. Hence, the nature of this review is to interpret existing information pertaining to gardens /gardening per se, identify where they may have a unique role to play and to highlight where further research is warranted. The review suggests that there are significant differences in both form and management of domestic gardens which radically influence the benefits. Nevertheless, gardens can play a strong role in improving the environmental impact of the domestic curtilage, e.g. by insulating houses against temperature extremes they can reduce domestic energy use. Gardens also improve localized air cooling, help mitigate flooding and provide a haven for wildlife. Less favourable aspects include contributions of gardens and gardening to greenhouse gas emissions, misuse of fertilizers and pesticides, and introduction of alien plant species. Due to the close proximity to the home and hence accessibility for many, possibly the greatest benefit of the domestic garden is on human health and well-being, but further work is required to define this clearly within the wider context of green infrastructure.

Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.

Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically though, these two requirements cannot both be met at the same time–tracking the observations is not possible without the trajectory deviating from the proposed model equations, while adherence to the model requires deviations from the observations. Thus, data assimilation faces a trade-off. In this contribution, the sensitivity of the data assimilation with respect to perturbations in the observations is identified as the parameter which controls the trade-off. A relation between the sensitivity and the out-of-sample error is established, which allows the latter to be calculated under operational conditions. A minimum out-of-sample error is proposed as a criterion to set an appropriate sensitivity and to settle the discussed trade-off. Two approaches to data assimilation are considered, namely variational data assimilation and Newtonian nudging, also known as synchronization. Numerical examples demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

Contribution of non-volatile and volatile compounds to the umami taste and overall flavour of shiitake mushroom extracts and their application as flavour enhancers in cooked minced meat

Aqueous extracts of dried shiitake mushrooms (Lentinus edodes) were prepared as taste and flavour enhancers for meat formulations. Effects of time and temperature on the chemical and sensory properties of the extracts were examined. Extracts prepared at 70 °C had significantly higher concentrations (p<0.001) of the savoury tasting 5’-ribonucleotides than those prepared at 22 °C but increasing the extraction time from 30 to 360 mins only increased their recovery slightly (p=0.053). In contrast, higher temperature extracts had considerably smaller concentrations of the major volatile compounds, such as lenthionine, 1-octen-3-ol, 1,3-dithiethane and dimethyl disulfide, because of loss through volatilisation. A sensory discrimination test showed that the lower temperature extract was perceived to have less umami taste than the higher temperature extract (p=0.048). Incorporating the 70 °C shiitake extract into minced meat formulations led to significantly higher levels of savoury tasting 5’-ribonucleotides in the cooked meat but no significant difference in umami perception.