State-space model identification of a wireless THz network

We model the large scale fading of wireless THz communications links deployed in a metropolitan area taking into account reception through direct line of sight, ground or wall reflection and diffraction. The movement of the receiver in the three dimensions is modelled by an autonomous dynamic linear system in state-space whereas the geometric relations involved in the attenuation and multi-path propagation of the electric field are described by a static non-linear mapping. A subspace algorithm in conjunction with polynomial regression is used to identify a Wiener model from time-domain measurements of the field intensity.

The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

The global response to tropical heating in the Madden-Julian oscillation during the northern winter

A life cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was constructed, based on 21 years of outgoing long-wave radiation data. Regression maps of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the northern winter show statistically significant upper-tropospheric equatorial wave patterns linked to the tropical convection anomalies, and extratropical wave patterns over the North Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and South America. To assess the cause of the circulation anomalies, a global primitive-equation model was initialized with the observed three-dimensional (3D) winter climatological mean flow and forced with a time-dependent heat source derived from the observed MJO anomalies. A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear. The model response is robust and insensitive to realistic changes in damping and basic state. The model tropical anomalies are consistent with a forced equatorial Rossby–Kelvin wave response to the tropical MJO heating, although it is shifted westward by approximately 20° longitude relative to observations. This may be due to a lack of damping processes (cumulus friction) in the regions of convective heating. Once this shift is accounted for, the extratropical response is consistent with theories of Rossby wave forcing and dispersion on the climatological flow, and the pattern correlation between the observed and modelled extratropical flow is up to 0.85. The observed tropical and extratropical wave patterns account for a significant fraction of the intraseasonal circulation variance, and this reproducibility as a response to tropical MJO convection has implications for global medium-range weather prediction. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

An integrative model of amino acid metabolism in the liver of the lactating dairy cow

The objective of this work was to construct a dynamic model of hepatic amino acid metabolism in the lactating dairy cow that could be parameterized using net flow data from in vivo experiments. The model considers 22 amino acids, ammonia, urea, and 13 energetic metabolites, and was parameterized using a steady-state balance model and two in vivo, net flow experiments conducted with mid-lactation dairy cows. Extracellular flows were derived directly from the observed data. An optimization routine was used to derive nine intracellular flows. The resulting dynamic model was found to be stable across a range of inputs suggesting that it can be perturbed and applied to other physiological states. Although nitrogen was generally in balance, leucine was in slight deficit compared to predicted needs for export protein synthesis, suggesting that an alternative source of leucine (e.g. peptides) was utilized. Simulations of varying glucagon concentrations indicated that an additional 5 mol/d of glucose could be synthesized at the reference substrate concentrations and blood flows. The increased glucose production was supported by increased removal from blood of lactate, glutamate, aspartate, alanine, asparagine, and glutamine. As glucose Output increased, ketone body and acetate release increased while CO2 release declined. The pattern of amino acids appearing in hepatic vein blood was affected by changes in amino acid concentration in portal vein blood, portal blood flow rate and glucagon concentration, with methionine and phenylalanine being the most affected of essential amino acids. Experimental evidence is insufficient to determine whether essential amino acids are affected by varying gluconeogenic demands. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

In vitro three-stage continuous fermentation of gluco-oligosaccharides produced by Gluconobacter oxydans NCIMB 4943 by the human colonic microflora

Gluco-oligosaccharides produced by Gluconobacter oxydans NCIMB 4943 from maltodextrin as the source, were evaluated for their fermentability by the human colonic microflora. The selectivity of growth of desirable bacteria in the human colon was studied in a three-stage continuous model of the human large intestine. Populations of bacteria, and their fluctuations as a response to the fermentation, were enumerated using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). The gluco-oligosaccharides resulted in increases in numbers of bifidobacteria and the Lactobacillus/Enterococcus group in all 3 vessels of the system, representing the proximal, transverse and distal colonic areas. The prebiotic indices of the glucooligosaccharides were 2.29, 4.23 and 2.74 in V1, V2 and V3 respectively.

An engineering model of the human colon

The development and performance of a three-stage tubular model of the large human intestine is outlined. Each stage comprises a membrane fermenter where flow of an aqueous polyethylene glycol solution on the outside of the tubular membrane is used to control the removal of water and metabolites (principally short chain fatty acids) from, and thus the pH of, the flowing contents on the fermenter side. The three stage system gave a fair representation of conditions in the human gut. Numbers of the main bacterial groups were consistently higher than in an existing three-chemostat gut model system, suggesting the advantages of the new design in providing an environment for bacterial growth to represent the actual colonic microflora. Concentrations of short chain fatty acids and Ph levels throughout the system were similar to those associated with corresponding sections of the human colon. The model was able to achieve considerable water transfer across the membrane, although the values were not as high as those in the colon. The model thus goes some way towards a realistic simulation of the colon, although it makes no pretence to simulate the pulsating nature of the real flow. The flow conditions in each section are characterized by low Reynolds numbers: mixing due to Taylor dispersion is significant, and the implications of Taylor mixing and biofilm development for the stability, that is the ability to operate without washout, of the system are briefly analysed and discussed. It is concluded that both phenomena are important for stabilizing the model and the human colon.

Theoretical investigation of infrared spectra and pocket dynamics of photodissociated carbonmonoxy myoglobin

Molecular dynamics simulations of the photodissociated state of carbonmonoxy myoglobin (MbCO) are presented using a fluctuating charge model for CO. A new three-point charge model is fitted to high-level ab initio calculations of the dipole and quadrupole moment functions taken from the literature. The infrared spectrum of the CO molecule in the heme pocket is calculated using the dipole moment time autocorrelation function and shows good agreement with experiment. In particular, the new model reproduces the experimentally observed splitting of the CO absorption spectrum. The splitting of 3–7 cm−1 (compared to the experimental value of 10 cm−1) can be directly attributed to the two possible orientations of CO within the docking site at the edge of the distal heme pocket (the B states), as previously suggested on the basis of experimental femtosecond time-resolved infrared studies. Further information on the time evolution of the position and orientation of the CO molecule is obtained and analyzed. The calculated difference in the free energy between the two possible orientations (Fe···CO and Fe···OC) is 0.3 kcal mol−1 and agrees well with the experimentally estimated value of 0.29 kcal mol−1. A comparison of the new fluctuating charge model with an established fixed charge model reveals some differences that may be critical for the correct prediction of the infrared spectrum and energy barriers. The photodissociation of CO from the myoglobin mutant L29F using the new model shows rapid escape of CO from the distal heme pocket, in good agreement with recent experimental data. The effect of the protein environment on the multipole moments of the CO ligand is investigated and taken into account in a refined model. Molecular dynamics simulations with this refined model are in agreement with the calculations based on the gas-phase model. However, it is demonstrated that even small changes in the electrostatics of CO alter the details of the dynamics.

Neurofuzzy control using Kalman filtering state feedback with coloured noise for unknown non-linear processes

This paper presents a controller design scheme for a priori unknown non-linear dynamical processes that are identified via an operating point neurofuzzy system from process data. Based on a neurofuzzy design and model construction algorithm (NeuDec) for a non-linear dynamical process, a neurofuzzy state-space model of controllable form is initially constructed. The control scheme based on closed-loop pole assignment is then utilized to ensure the time invariance and linearization of the state equations so that the system stability can be guaranteed under some mild assumptions, even in the presence of modelling error. The proposed approach requires a known state vector for the application of pole assignment state feedback. For this purpose, a generalized Kalman filtering algorithm with coloured noise is developed on the basis of the neurofuzzy state-space model to obtain an optimal state vector estimation. The derived controller is applied in typical output tracking problems by minimizing the tracking error. Simulation examples are included to demonstrate the operation and effectiveness of the new approach.

Neurofuzzy state identification using prefiltering

A new state estimator algorithm is based on a neurofuzzy network and the Kalman filter algorithm. The major contribution of the paper is recognition of a bias problem in the parameter estimation of the state-space model and the introduction of a simple, effective prefiltering method to achieve unbiased parameter estimates in the state-space model, which will then be applied for state estimation using the Kalman filtering algorithm. Fundamental to this method is a simple prefiltering procedure using a nonlinear principal component analysis method based on the neurofuzzy basis set. This prefiltering can be performed without prior system structure knowledge. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011)

Abstract. In a recent paper Hu et al. (2011) suggest that the recovery of stratospheric ozone during the first half of this century will significantly enhance free tropospheric and surface warming caused by the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases, with the effects being most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These surprising results are based on a multi-model analysis of CMIP3 model simulations with and without prescribed stratospheric ozone recovery. Hu et al. suggest that in order to properly quantify the tropospheric and surface temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery, it is necessary to run coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models with stratospheric ozone chemistry. The results of such an experiment are presented here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model. In contrast to Hu et al., we find a much smaller Northern Hemisphere tropospheric temperature response to ozone recovery, which is of opposite sign. We suggest that their result is an artifact of the incomplete removal of the large effect of greenhouse gas warming between the two different sets of models.

Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases

A state-of-the-art chemistry climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model is used to produce three experiments, all seamlessly covering the period 1950–2100, forced by different combinations of long-lived Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs). The experiments are designed to quantify the separate effects of GHGs and ODSs on the evolution of ozone, as well as the extent to which these effects are independent of each other, by alternately holding one set of these two forcings constant in combination with a third experiment where both ODSs and GHGs vary. We estimate that up to the year 2000 the net decrease in the column amount of ozone above 20 hPa is approximately 75% of the decrease that can be attributed to ODSs due to the offsetting effects of cooling by increased CO2. Over the 21st century, as ODSs decrease, continued cooling from CO2 is projected to account for more than 50% of the projected increase in ozone above 20 hPa. Changes in ozone below 20 hPa show a redistribution of ozone from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes with an increase in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In addition to a latitudinal redistribution of ozone, we find that the globally averaged column amount of ozone below 20 hPa decreases over the 21st century, which significantly mitigates the effect of upper stratospheric cooling on total column ozone. Analysis by linear regression shows that the recovery of ozone from the effects of ODSs generally follows the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine levels, with the exception of the lower polar stratosphere where recovery of ozone in the second half of the 21st century is slower than would be indicated by the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine concentrations. These results also reveal the degree to which GHGrelated effects mute the chemical effects of N2O on ozone in the standard future scenario used for the WMO Ozone Assessment. Increases in the residual circulation of the atmosphere and chemical effects from CO2 cooling more than halve the increase in reactive nitrogen in the mid to upper stratosphere that results from the specified increase in N2O between 1950 and 2100.

Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Ozone climatology using interactive chemistry: results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The climatology of ozone produced by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is presented. This three-dimensional global model incorporates the radiative feedbacks of ozone and water vapor calculated on-line with a photochemical module. This module includes a comprehensive gas-phase reaction set and a limited set of heterogeneous reactions to account for processes occurring on background sulphate aerosols. While transport is global, photochemistry is solved from about 400 hPa to the top of the model at ∼95 km. This approach provides a complete and comprehensive representation of transport, emission, and photochemistry of various constituents from the surface to the mesopause region. A comparison of model results with observations indicates that the ozone distribution and variability are in agreement with observations throughout most of the model domain. Column ozone annual variation is represented to within 5–10% of the observations except in the Southern Hemisphere for springtime high latitudes. The vertical ozone distribution is generally well represented by the model up to the mesopause region. Nevertheless, in the upper stratosphere, the model generally underestimates the amount of ozone as well as the latitudinal tilting of ozone isopleths at high latitude. Ozone variability is analyzed and compared with measurements. The comparison shows that the phase and amplitude of the seasonal variation as well as shorter timescale variations are well represented by the model at various latitudes and heights. Finally, the impact of incorporating ozone radiative feedback on the model climatology is isolated. It is found that the incorporation of ozone radiative feedback results in a cooling of ∼8 K in the summer stratopause region, which corrects a warm bias that results when climatological ozone is used.

Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.