A tractable means of correcting sector level TFP calculations in the face of biased technological change.

The measurement of the impact of technical change has received significant attention within the economics literature. One popular method of quantifying the impact of technical change is the use of growth accounting index numbers. However, in a recent article Nelson and Pack (1999) criticise the use of such index numbers in situations where technical change is likely to be biased in favour of one or other inputs. In particular they criticise the common approach of applying observed cost shares, as proxies for partial output elasticities, to weight the change in quantities which they claim is only valid under Hicks neutrality. Recent advances in the measurement of product and factor biases of technical change developed by Balcombe et al (2000) provide a relatively straight-forward means of correcting product and factor shares in the face of biased technical progress. This paper demonstrates the correction of both revenue and cost shares used in the construction of a TFP index for UK agriculture over the period 1953 to 2000 using both revenue and cost function share equations appended with stochastic latent variables to capture the bias effect. Technical progress is shown to be biased between both individual input and output groups. Output and input quantity aggregates are then constructed using both observed and corrected share weights and the resulting TFPs are compared. There does appear to be some significant bias in TFP if the effect of biased technical progress is not taken into account when constructing the weights

Measuring productivity growth when technological change is biased - a new index and an application to UK agriculture

Productivity growth is conventionally measured by indices representing discreet approximations of the Divisia TFP index under the assumption that technological change is Hicks-neutral. When this assumption is violated, these indices are no longer meaningful because they conflate the effects of factor accumulation and technological change. We propose a way of adjusting the conventional TFP index that solves this problem. The method adopts a latent variable approach to the measurement of technical change biases that provides a simple means of correcting product and factor shares in the standard Tornqvist-Theil TFP index. An application to UK agriculture over the period 1953-2000 demonstrates that technical progress is strongly biased. The implications of that bias for productivity measurement are shown to be very large, with the conventional TFP index severely underestimating productivity growth. The result is explained primarily by the fact that technological change has favoured the rapidly accumulating factors against labour, the factor leaving the sector. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Apparent digestibility and nitrogen utilization of diets based on maize silage harvested at three stages of maturity and fed to steers

Advancing maize crop maturity is associated with changes in ear-to-stover ratio which may have consequences for the digestibility of the ensiled crop. The apparent digestibility and nitrogen retention of three diets (Early, Mid and Late) containing maize silages made from maize of advancing harvest date [dry matter (DM) contents of the maize silages were 273, 314 and 367 g kg(-1) for the silages in the Early, Mid and Late diets respectively], together with a protein supplement offered in sufficient quantities to make the diets isonitrogenous, were measured in six Holstein-Friesian steers in an incomplete Latin square design with four periods. Dry-matter intake of maize silage tended to be least for the Early diet and greatest for the Medium diet (P=0(.)182). Apparent digestibility of DM and organic matter did not differ between diets. Apparent digestibility of energy was lowest in the Late diet (P = 0(.)057) and the metabolizable energy concentrations of the three silages were calculated as 11(.)0, 11(.)1 and 10(.)6 MJ kg(-1) DM for the Early, Medium and Late diets respectively (P = 0(.)068). No differences were detected between diets in starch digestibility but the number of undamaged grains present in the faeces of animals fed the Late diet was significantly higher than with the Early and Mid diets (P = 0(.)006). The apparent digestibility of neutral-detergent fibre of the diets reduced significantly as silage DM content increased (P = 0(.)012) with a similar trend for the apparent digestibility of acid-detergent fibre (P = 0(.)078). Apparent digestibility of nitrogen (N) was similar for the Early and Mid diets, both being greater than the Late diet (P = 0(.)035). Nitrogen retention did not differ between diets. It was concluded that delaying harvest until the DM content is above 300 g kg(-1) can negatively affect the nutritive value of maize silage in the UK.

Intake, live-weight gain and carcass characteristics of beef cattle given diets based on forage maize silage harvested at different stages of maturity

Advancing maturity of forage maize is associated with increases in the proportion of dry matter (DM) and starch, and decreases in the proportions of structural carbohydrates in the ensiled crop. This experiment investigated the effects of three maize silages of 291 (low), 339 (medium) and 393 (high) g DM per kg fresh weight on the performance of 48 Simmental. Holstein-Friesian cattle. Equal numbers of steers (mean start weight = 503 (s.d. 31.3) kg) and heifers (mean start weight = 378 (s.d. 11.2) kg) were offered individually isonitrogenous diets composed of the three silages plus a protein supplement with minerals once daily until slaughter at the target live weight of 575 and 475 kg for steers and heifers, respectively. Intake was reduced on the low diet (P < 0.01) compared with the other two treatments. Dietary starch intake increased by a total of 1 kg/day between low and medium diets but by only 0.2 kg/day between medium and high diets. Unlike starch intake, total neutral-detergent fibre intake showed no significant difference (P > 0.05) between diets. There were no differences in live-weight gain between treatments but differences (P < 0.05) in food conversion efficiency indicated relative gains of 115, 100 and 102 g gain per kg DM intake for diets low, medium and high, respectively. There were no differences between diets in carcass weights, fat score and overall conformation.

Dual technological development in Botswana agriculture: A Stochastic input distance function approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two-output six-input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996 This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power. land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same patient is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade-off between efficiency and equity objectives.

Digestion, rumen fermentation and circulating concentrations of insulin, growth hormone and IGF-1 in steers given maize silages harvested at three stages of maturity

Advancing maturity of forage maize is associated with increases in the proportion of dry matter (DM) and starch and decreases in the proportions of structural carbohydrates in the ensiled crop. Three maize silages (286 (low, L), 329 (medium, M) and 379 (high, H) g DM per kg fresh weight) plus a concentrate formulated to give isonitrogenous intakes were offered to Holstein-Friesian steers fitted with a cannula in the dorsal sac of the rumen and a 'T' piece cannula in the proximal duodenum in an experiment with a cross-over design that allowed four collection periods. Nutrient flow to the duodenum was estimated using chromium-EDTA. Steers consumed approximately 0(.)6 kg DM per day less of diet L compared with the other two diets (P=0(.)026), resulting in less DM being digested (P=0(.)005) but digestibility did not differ between diets. Similar results were obtained for organic matter. There were no differences between diets in the intake or digestibility of neutral-detergent fibre. Intake, duodenal flow and faecal output of starch were greater for steers offered diets M and H compared with those given diet L (P < 0(.)05). In all diets rumen digestion contributed to over 90% of total digestion of starch, although rumen digestibility declined significantly with advancing maize maturity (P=0(.)002). Molar proportions of acetic acid were higher in diet H (P < 0(.)05) whilst proportions of propionic acid and n-butyric acid were higher in diets M and L. There were no significant differences between diets in mean rumen pH or ammonia concentrations. Mean circulating concentrations of insulin were higher (P=0(.)009) in cattle given diets L and M compared with diet H. There were no differences between diets in the mean circulating concentration of growth hormone, or the frequency, amplitude and duration of growth hormone pulses, or the mean circulating concentrations of IGF-1. Changes in forage composition that accompany advancing maize maturity affect overall silage digestion and circulating concentrations of insulin.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Changes in light intensity can influence age at sexual maturity in domestic pullets

1. Shaver White and ISA Brown pullets were reared to 140 d in groups of 8 in cages on a 10-h photoperiod of incandescent light and maintained at an illuminance of 3 or 25 lux, or transferred from 3 to 25 lux or from 25 to 3 lux at 63 or 112 d of age. 2. There was no significant difference in sexual maturity, measured as eggs per 100 bird.d at 139 and 140 d, for ISA Brown maintained on 3 or 25 lux, but Shaver White pullets exposed to constant 3 lux matured significantly later than those maintained on 25 lux. 3. In Shaver Whites, sexual maturity was significantly delayed by an increase from 3 to 25 lux at 63 and 112 d, and advanced by a decrease from 25 to 3 lux at 112 d. Sexual maturity of ISA Browns was not significantly affected by a change in illuminance at 63 or 112 d, though responses were in the same direction as for Shaver Whites. 4. In both breeds, total feed consumed to 112 d was higher for birds on 3 lux than 25 lux, but lower between 112 d and 140 d when birds on 25 lux underwent rapid sexual development. In both breeds, body weight at 63 d was higher for birds exposed to 3 lux than 25 lux, but body weight gain thereafter was similar for the two light intensities. 5. In both breeds, plasma luteinising hormone (LH) concentration at 63 and 112 d was lower in birds maintained on 3 lux than 25 lux. At 63 and 112 d, transfers from 25 to 3 lux depressed, whereas transfers from 3 to 25 lux at 63 d, but not at 112 d, increased plasma LH. 6. Advances or delays in sexual maturity induced by changes in illuminance were not correlated with differences in feed intake, body weight gain, or with changes in plasma LH. 7. One possible explanation for the inverse relationship between the direction of change in illuminance at 63 and 112 d in pullets exposed to a 10-h photoperiod and the age at which they became sexually mature is that changes in light intensity and/or spectral composition affect the entrainment of the circadian rhythm of photoinducibility, to effect a phase shift in the photoinducible phase and/or the responsiveness of phototransduction pathways.

Patented biologically-inspired technological innovations: A twenty year view

Publication rate of patents can be a useful measure of innovation and productivity in fields of science and technology. To assess the growth in industrially-important research, I conducted an appraisal of patents published between 1985 and 2005 on online databases using keywords chosen to select technologies arising as a result of biological inspiration. Whilst the total number of patents increased over the period examined, those with biomimetic content had increased faster as a proportion of total patent publications. Logistic regression analysis reveals that we may be a little over half way through an initial innovation cycle inspired by biological systems.

Technology trajectories, innovation, and the growth of biomimetics

Publication rate of patents can be a useful measure of innovation and productivity in science and technology. Patenting activity in new technological fields follows a sigmoid (S-shaped) path. Qualitative and quantitative models in management and economics literature explain why such patterns of productivity may occur. TRIZ analysis suggests that patents are generated in bursts during the evolution of a product and that they are at different levels of inventiveness. The tendency is for the inventiveness to reduce as the product is more mature. This makes it possible to guess at the lifetime stage of a product and gauge its maturity and profitability. An analysis of patenting activity and other measures of inventiveness in the emerging field of biomimetics was presented, and future trends in biologically-inspired innovation was discussed.

Innovative approach to building systems integration problems: Using systems theory, technological forecasting and scenario planning

Building services are worth about 2% GDP and are essential for the effective and efficient operations of the building. It is increasingly recognised that the value of a building is related to the way it supports the client organisation’s ongoing business operations. Building services are central to the functional performance of buildings and provide the necessary conditions for health, well-being, safety and security of the occupants. They frequently comprise several technologically distinct sub-systems and their design and construction requires the involvement of numerous disciplines and trades. Designers and contractors working on the same project are frequently employed by different companies. Materials and equipment is supplied by a diverse range of manufacturers. Facilities managers are responsible for operation of the building service in use. The coordination between these participants is crucially important to achieve optimum performance, but too often is neglected. This leaves room for serious faults. The need for effective integration is important. Modern technology offers increasing opportunities for integrated personal-control systems for lighting, ventilation and security as well as interoperability between systems. Opportunities for a new mode of systems integration are provided by the emergence of PFI/PPP procurements frameworks. This paper attempts to establish how systems integration can be achieved in the process of designing, constructing and operating building services. The essence of the paper therefore is to envisage the emergent organisational responses to the realisation of building services as an interactive systems network.

Technological innovation in the context of PPPs: incentives, opportunities and actions

From a construction perspective, Public-Private Partnership projects (PPPs) are often credited as providing real incentives for the actors involved as well as a business environment that is conducive to innovation and improved practices. The validity of four common rhetorical arguments used to promote the PPP procurement route is explored: collaborative working, design freedom, long-term commitment and risk transfer. Particular interest is given to the extent to which espoused intentions correlate with experienced realities in allowing actors involved in the design and construction phases to be presented with, and able to exploit, opportunities for technological innovation. It is argued that there is reason to be cautious in fully accepting the purported benefits of the PPP framework and that the arguments often presented need to be revised. Alternative interpretations are provided.