Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42−). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO42− and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean ± 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 ± 0.6 to 1.7 ± 2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (−162.6 ± 2 mWm−2 for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (−0.4 ± 0.2 to −0.7 ± 0.2 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1) and CO emissions (−0.13 ± 0.02 to −0.15 ± 0.02 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by −1.9 to −5.2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1, −0.2 to −0.7 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1, and −0.02 to −0.05 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1. Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42−, regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42− responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 ± 2.6 to −1.9 ± 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 ± 1.2 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and −0.09 ± 0.5 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP100) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 ± 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 ± 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (−18.7 ± 25.9 to −1.9 ± 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 ± 1.7 to 8.3 ± 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 ± 0.4 to 1.7 ± 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP100 for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

Variation in pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding the putative inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) and type-I and type-II activin receptors during the chicken ovulatory cycle

Secretion of LH and FSH from the anterior pituitary is regulated primarily by hypothalamic GnRH and ovarian steroid hormones. More recent evidence indicates regulatory roles for certain members of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF beta) superfamily including inhibin and activin. The aim of this study was to identify expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors and ligands of the inhibin/activin system in the hen pituitary gland and to monitor their expression throughout the 24-25-h ovulatory cycle. Hens maintained on long days (16 h light/8 h dark) were killed 20, 12, 6 and 2 h before predicted ovulation of a midsequence egg (n = 8 per group). Anterior pituitary glands were removed, RNA extracted and cDNA synthesized. Plasma concentrations of LH, FSH, progesterone and inhibin A were measured. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type I, IIA), GnRH receptor (GnP,H-R), LH beta subunit, FSH beta subunit and GAPDH. Levels of mRNA for inhibin/activin beta A and beta B subunits, inhibin alpha subunit, follistatin and ActRIIB mRNA in pituitary were undetectable by quantitative PCR (< 2 amol/reaction). Significant changes in expression (P < 0.05) of ActRIIA and betaglycan mRNA were found, both peaking 6 h before ovulation just prior to the preovulatory LH surge and reaching a nadir 2 h before ovulation, just after the LH surge. There were no significant changes in expression of ActRI mRNA throughout the cycle although values were correlated with mRNA levels for both ActRIIA (r=0.77; P < 0.001) and betaglycan (r=0.45; P < 0.01). Expression of GnRH-R mRNA was lowest 20 h before ovulation and highest (P < 0.05) 6 h before ovulation; values were weakly correlated with betaglycan (r=0.33; P=0.06) and ActRIIA (r=0.34; P=0.06) mRNA levels. Expression of mRNAs encoding LH beta and FSH beta subunit were both lowest (P < 0.05) after the LH surge, 2 h before ovulation. These results are consistent with an endocrine, but not a local intrapituitary, role of inhibin-related proteins in modulating gonadotroph function during the ovulatory cycle of the hen, potentially through interaction with betaglycan and ActRIIA. In contrast to mammals, intrapituitary expression of inhibin/activin subunits and follistatin appears to be extremely low or absent in the domestic fowl.

Variation in pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding the putative inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) and type-I and type-II activin receptors during the chicken ovulatory cycle

Secretion of LH and FSH from the anterior pituitary is regulated primarily by hypothalamic GnRH and ovarian steroid hormones. More recent evidence indicates regulatory roles for certain members of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF beta) superfamily including inhibin and activin. The aim of this study was to identify expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors and ligands of the inhibin/activin system in the hen pituitary gland and to monitor their expression throughout the 24-25-h ovulatory cycle. Hens maintained on long days (16 h light/8 h dark) were killed 20, 12, 6 and 2 h before predicted ovulation of a midsequence egg (n = 8 per group). Anterior pituitary glands were removed, RNA extracted and cDNA synthesized. Plasma concentrations of LH, FSH, progesterone and inhibin A were measured. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify pituitary expression of mRNAs encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type I, IIA), GnRH receptor (GnP,H-R), LH beta subunit, FSH beta subunit and GAPDH. Levels of mRNA for inhibin/activin beta A and beta B subunits, inhibin alpha subunit, follistatin and ActRIIB mRNA in pituitary were undetectable by quantitative PCR (< 2 amol/reaction). Significant changes in expression (P < 0.05) of ActRIIA and betaglycan mRNA were found, both peaking 6 h before ovulation just prior to the preovulatory LH surge and reaching a nadir 2 h before ovulation, just after the LH surge. There were no significant changes in expression of ActRI mRNA throughout the cycle although values were correlated with mRNA levels for both ActRIIA (r=0.77; P < 0.001) and betaglycan (r=0.45; P < 0.01). Expression of GnRH-R mRNA was lowest 20 h before ovulation and highest (P < 0.05) 6 h before ovulation; values were weakly correlated with betaglycan (r=0.33; P=0.06) and ActRIIA (r=0.34; P=0.06) mRNA levels. Expression of mRNAs encoding LH beta and FSH beta subunit were both lowest (P < 0.05) after the LH surge, 2 h before ovulation. These results are consistent with an endocrine, but not a local intrapituitary, role of inhibin-related proteins in modulating gonadotroph function during the ovulatory cycle of the hen, potentially through interaction with betaglycan and ActRIIA. In contrast to mammals, intrapituitary expression of inhibin/activin subunits and follistatin appears to be extremely low or absent in the domestic fowl.

Methylene spacer-regulated structural variation in cobalt(II/III) complexes with bridging acetate and Salen- or Salpn-type Schiff-base ligands

Two linear, trinuclear mixed-valence complexes, [Co-II{(mu-L-1)(mu-OAc)Co-III (OAc)}(2)] (1) and [Co-II(mu-L-2) (mu-OAc)Co-III(OAc)}(2)] (2) and two mononuclear Con' complexes [Co-III{L-3)(OAc)] (3), and [Co-III {L-4}(OAc)] (4) were prepared and the molecular structures of 1, 2 and 4 elucidated on the basis of X-ray crystallography [OAc = Acetate ion, H2L1 = H(2)Salen 1,6-bis(2-hydroxyphenyl)-2,5-diazahexa-1,5-diene, H2L2 H2Me2-Salen = 2,7-bis(2-hydroxyphenyl)-2,6-diazaocta-2,6-diene, H2L3 = H(2)Salpn = 1,7-bis(2-hydroxyphenyl)-2,6-diazahepta1,6-diene, H2L4 = H(2)Me(2)Salpn = 2,8-bis(2-hydroxyphenyl)3,7-diazanona-2,7-dienel. In complexes I and 2, the acetate groups show both monodentate and bridging bidentate coordination modes, whereas chelating bidentate acetate is present in 4. The terminal (CoN2O4)-N-III centres in 1 and 2 exhibit uniform facial arrangements of both non-bridged N2O and bridging O-3 donor sets and the Co-II centre is coordinated to six (four phenoxo and two acetato) oxygen atoms of the bridging ligands. The effective magnetic moment at room temperature corresponds to the presence of high-spin Coll in both 1 and 2. The complexes 1 and 2 are thus Co-III(S = 0)Co-II(S = 3/2)-Co-II(S = 0) trimers. Complexes 3 and 4 are monomeric and diamagnetic containing low-spin Co-III(S = 0) with chelating tetradentate Schiff base and bidentate acetate. Calculations based on DFT rationalise the formation of trinuclear or monomiclear complexes. (C) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2008).

Co-ordinate single-cell expression of LEE4- and LEE5-encoded proteins of Escherichia coli O157:H7

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that can express a type III secretion system (TTSS) considered important for colonization and persistence in ruminants. E. coli O157:H7 strains have been shown to vary markedly in levels of protein secreted using the TTSS and this study has confirmed that a high secretion phenotype is more prevalent among isolates associated with human disease than isolates shed by healthy cattle. The variation in secretion levels is a consequence of heterogeneous expression, being dependent on the proportion of bacteria in a population that are actively engaged in protein secretion. This was demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescence and eGFP fusions that examined the expression of locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE)-encoded factors in individual bacteria. In liquid media, the expression of EspA, tir::egfp, intimin, but not map::egfp were co-ordinated in a subpopulation of bacteria. In contrast to E. coli O157:H7, expression of tir::egfp in EPEC E2348/69 was equivalent in all bacteria although the same fusion exhibited variable expression when transformed into an E. coli O157:H7 background. An E. coli O157:H7 strain deleted for the LEE demonstrated weak but variable expression of tir::egfp indicating that the elements controlling the heterogeneous expression lie outside the LEE. The research also demonstrated the rapid induction of tir::egfp and map::egfp on contact with bovine epithelial cells. This control in E. coli O157:H7 may be required to limit exposure of key surface antigens, EspA, Tir and intimin during colonization of cattle but allow their rapid production on contact with bovine gastrointestinal epithelium at the terminal rectum.

Realistic mean field forward predictions for the integration of co-registered EEG/fMRI

Brain activity can be measured non-invasively with functional imaging techniques. Each pixel in such an image represents a neural mass of about 105 to 107 neurons. Mean field models (MFMs) approximate their activity by averaging out neural variability while retaining salient underlying features, like neurotransmitter kinetics. However, MFMs incorporating the regional variability, realistic geometry and connectivity of cortex have so far appeared intractable. This lack of biological realism has led to a focus on gross temporal features of the EEG. We address these impediments and showcase a "proof of principle" forward prediction of co-registered EEG/fMRI for a full-size human cortex in a realistic head model with anatomical connectivity, see figure 1. MFMs usually assume homogeneous neural masses, isotropic long-range connectivity and simplistic signal expression to allow rapid computation with partial differential equations. But these approximations are insufficient in particular for the high spatial resolution obtained with fMRI, since different cortical areas vary in their architectonic and dynamical properties, have complex connectivity, and can contribute non-trivially to the measured signal. Our code instead supports the local variation of model parameters and freely chosen connectivity for many thousand triangulation nodes spanning a cortical surface extracted from structural MRI. This allows the introduction of realistic anatomical and physiological parameters for cortical areas and their connectivity, including both intra- and inter-area connections. Proper cortical folding and conduction through a realistic head model is then added to obtain accurate signal expression for a comparison to experimental data. To showcase the synergy of these computational developments, we predict simultaneously EEG and fMRI BOLD responses by adding an established model for neurovascular coupling and convolving "Balloon-Windkessel" hemodynamics. We also incorporate regional connectivity extracted from the CoCoMac database [1]. Importantly, these extensions can be easily adapted according to future insights and data. Furthermore, while our own simulation is based on one specific MFM [2], the computational framework is general and can be applied to models favored by the user. Finally, we provide a brief outlook on improving the integration of multi-modal imaging data through iterative fits of a single underlying MFM in this realistic simulation framework.

Quantitative genetic divergence and standing genetic (co)variance in thermal reaction norms along latitude

Although the potential to adapt to warmer climate is constrained by genetic trade-offs, our understanding of how selection and mutation shape genetic (co)variances in thermal reaction norms is poor. Using 71 isofemale lines of the fly Sepsis punctum, originating from northern, central, and southern European climates, we tested for divergence in juvenile development rate across latitude at five experimental temperatures. To investigate effects of evolutionary history in different climates on standing genetic variation in reaction norms, we further compared genetic (co)variances between regions. Flies were reared on either high or low food resources to explore the role of energy acquisition in determining genetic trade-offs between different temperatures. Although the latter had only weak effects on the strength and sign of genetic correlations, genetic architecture differed significantly between climatic regions, implying that evolution of reaction norms proceeds via different trajectories at high latitude versus low latitude in this system. Accordingly, regional genetic architecture was correlated to region-specific differentiation. Moreover, hot development temperatures were associated with low genetic variance and stronger genetic correlations compared to cooler temperatures. We discuss the evolutionary potential of thermal reaction norms in light of their underlying genetic architectures, evolutionary histories, and the materialization of trade-offs in natural environments.

Model simulations and aircraft measurements of vertical, seasonal and latitudinal O3 and CO distributions over Europe

During a series of 8 measurement campaigns within the SPURT project (2001-2003), vertical profiles of CO and O3 have been obtained at subtropical, middle and high latitudes over western Europe, covering the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere up to ~14 km altitude during all seasons. The seasonal and latitudinal variation of the measured trace gas profiles are compared to simulations with the chemical transport model MATCH. In the troposphere reasonable agreement between observations and model predictions is achieved for CO and O3, in particular at subtropical and mid-latitudes, while the model overestimates (underestimates) CO (O3 in the lowermost stratosphere particularly at high latitudes, indicating too strong simulated bi-directional exchange across the tropopause. By the use of tagged tracers in the model, long-range transport of Asian air masses is identified as the dominant source of CO pollution over Europe in the free troposphere.

Natural genetic variation in caesium (Cs) accumulation by Arabidopsis thaliana

Ingestion of caesium (Cs) radioisotopes poses a health risk to humans. Crop varieties that accumulate less Cs in their edible tissues may provide a useful countermeasure. This study was performed to determine whether quantitative genetics on a model plant (Arabidopsis thaliana) might inform such 'safe'-crop strategies. Arabidopsis accessions and recombinant inbred lines (RILs), from Landsberg erecta (Ler) x Cape Verdi Island (Cvi), Ler x Columbia (Col), and Niederzenz (Nd) x Col mapping populations, were grown on agar supplemented with subtoxic levels of Cs. Shoot Cs concentration varied up to three-fold, and shoot f. wt varied up to 25-fold within populations. The heritability of growth and Cs accumulation traits ranged from 0.06 to 0.28. Four quantitative trait loci (QTL) accounted for > 80 of the genetic contribution to the total phenotypic variation in shoot Cs concentration in the Ler x Col population. QTL identified in this study, in particular, QTL co-localizing to the top and bottom regions of Chromosomes I and V in two different mapping populations, are amenable to positional cloning and, through collinearity, may inform selection or breeding strategies for the development of 'safe' crops.

Speculative bubbles and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced source of risk that is separate from the standard market risk, size and value factors. We demonstrate that much of the common variation in stock returns that can be attributable to market risk is due to the co-movement of bubbles rather than being driven by fundamentals.

Datasets related to in-land water for limnology and remote sensing applications: distance-to-land, distance-to-water, water-body identifier and lake-centre co-ordinates

Datasets containing information to locate and identify water bodies have been generated from data locating static-water-bodies with resolution of about 300 m (1/360 deg) recently released by the Land Cover Climate Change Initiative (LC CCI) of the European Space Agency. The LC CCI water-bodies dataset has been obtained from multi-temporal metrics based on time series of the backscattered intensity recorded by ASAR on Envisat between 2005 and 2010. The new derived datasets provide coherently: distance to land, distance to water, water-body identifiers and lake-centre locations. The water-body identifier dataset locates the water bodies assigning the identifiers of the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), and lake centres are defined for in-land waters for which GLWD IDs were determined. The new datasets therefore link recent lake/reservoir/wetlands extent to the GLWD, together with a set of coordinates which locates unambiguously the water bodies in the database. Information on distance-to-land for each water cell and the distance-to-water for each land cell has many potential applications in remote sensing, where the applicability of geophysical retrieval algorithms may be affected by the presence of water or land within a satellite field of view (image pixel). During the generation and validation of the datasets some limitations of the GLWD database and of the LC CCI water-bodies mask have been found. Some examples of the inaccuracies/limitations are presented and discussed. Temporal change in water-body extent is common. Future versions of the LC CCI dataset are planned to represent temporal variation, and this will permit these derived datasets to be updated.