A generalised Bayesian instrumental variable approach under student t-distributed errors with application

Bayesian analysis is given of an instrumental variable model that allows for heteroscedasticity in both the structural equation and the instrument equation. Specifically, the approach for dealing with heteroscedastic errors in Geweke (1993) is extended to the Bayesian instrumental variable estimator outlined in Rossi et al. (2005). Heteroscedasticity is treated by modelling the variance for each error using a hierarchical prior that is Gamma distributed. The computation is carried out by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with an augmented draw for the heteroscedastic case. An example using real data illustrates the approach and shows that ignoring heteroscedasticity in the instrument equation when it exists may lead to biased estimates.

A general-method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data

Recent interest in the validation of general circulation models (GCMs) has been devoted to objective methods. A small number of authors have used the direct synoptic identification of phenomena together with a statistical analysis to perform the objective comparison between various datasets. This paper describes a general method for performing the synoptic identification of phenomena that can be used for an objective analysis of atmospheric, or oceanographic, datasets obtained from numerical models and remote sensing. Methods usually associated with image processing have been used to segment the scene and to identify suitable feature points to represent the phenomena of interest. This is performed for each time level. A technique from dynamic scene analysis is then used to link the feature points to form trajectories. The method is fully automatic and should be applicable to a wide range of geophysical fields. An example will be shown of results obtained from this method using data obtained from a run of the Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project GCM.

Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.

Analysis and application of ichnofabrics

Bioturbation at all scales, which tends to replace the primary fabric of a sediment by the ichnofabric (the overall fabric of a sediment that has been bioturbated), is now recognised as playing a major role in facies interpretation. The manner in which the substrate may be colonized, and the physical, chemical and ecological controls (grainsize, sedimentation rate, oxygenation, nutrition, salinity, ethology, community structure and succession), together with the several ways in which the substrate is tiered by bioturbators, are the factors and processes that determine the nature of the ichnofabric. Eleven main styles of substrate tiering are described, ranging from single, pioneer colonization to complex tiering under equilibria, their modification under environmental deterioration and amelioration, and diagenetic enhancement or obscuration. Ichnofabrics may be assessed by four attributes: primary sedimentary factors, Bioturbation Index (BI), burrow size and frequency, and ichnological diversity. Construction of tier and ichnofabric constituent diagrams aid visualization and comparison. The breaks or changes in colonization and style of tiering at key stratal surfaces accentuate the surfaces, and many reflect a major environmental shift of the trace-forming biota. due to change in hydrodynamic regime (leading to non-deposition and/or erosion and/or lithification), change in salinity regime, or subaerial exposure. The succession of gradational or abrupt changes in ichnofabric through genetically related successions, together with changes in colonization and tiering across event beds, may also be interpreted in terms of changes in environmental parameters. It is not the ichnotaxa per se that are important in discriminating between ichnofabrics, but rather the environmental conditions that determine the overall style of colonization. Fabrics composed of different ichnotaxa (and different taphonomies) but similar tier structure and ichnoguild may form in similar environments of different age or different latitude. Appreciation of colonization and tiering styles places ancient ichnofabrics on a sound processrelated basis for environmental interpretation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Student perceptions of their IEP targets

The 2001 Code of Practice for Special Educational Needs (DfES, 2001) explicitly states that students with IEPs should have an active role in the writing and implementing of them. A research project was conducted in which 19 Year 8 students in three schools were interviewed, with the findings cross-referenced against an examination of their individual education plans (IEPs) and interviews with the SENCos. Very few students were able to communicate a clear understanding of IEPs. Students' stated targets mostly reflected mainstream target-setting: very few stated targets matched with those in their IEPs. Consistent with these findings is literature which argues that meaningfully involving students in the IEP process takes considerable time and effort, which would appear to imply that the number of students with IEPs in any one school must be limited. Against this are pressures, particularly from OFSTED but also from examination boards, to have IEPs available as evidence that students' needs are being met. The article concludes by suggesting that SENCos look to limit the number of IEPs issued, alongside a robust defence of the school's special educational needs policy within the school evaluation form to ensure that students' needs are met and also are seen to be met.

Using the web graph to influence application behaviour

The Web's link structure (termed the Web Graph) is a richly connected set of Web pages. Current applications use this graph for indexing and information retrieval purposes. In contrast the relationship between Web Graph and application is reversed by letting the structure of the Web Graph influence the behaviour of an application. Presents a novel Web crawling agent, AlienBot, the output of which is orthogonally coupled to the enemy generation strategy of a computer game. The Web Graph guides AlienBot, causing it to generate a stochastic process. Shows the effectiveness of such unorthodox coupling to both the playability of the game and the heuristics of the Web crawler. In addition, presents the results of the sample of Web pages collected by the crawling process. In particular, shows: how AlienBot was able to identify the power law inherent in the link structure of the Web; that 61.74 per cent of Web pages use some form of scripting technology; that the size of the Web can be estimated at just over 5.2 billion pages; and that less than 7 per cent of Web pages fully comply with some variant of (X)HTML.

Closed form approximations for spread options

This article expresses the price of a spread option as the sum of the prices of two compound options. One compound option is to exchange vanilla call options on the two underlying assets and the other is to exchange the corresponding put options. This way we derive a new closed form approximation for the price of a European spread option and a corresponding approximation for each of its price, volatility and correlation hedge ratios. Our approach has many advantages over existing analytical approximations, which have limited validity and an indeterminacy that renders them of little practical use. The compound exchange option approximation for European spread options is then extended to American spread options on assets that pay dividends or incur costs. Simulations quantify the accuracy of our approach; we also present an empirical application to the American crack spread options that are traded on NYMEX. For illustration, we compare our results with those obtained using the approximation attributed to Kirk (1996, Correlation in energy markets. In: V. Kaminski (Ed.), Managing Energy Price Risk, pp. 71–78 (London: Risk Publications)), which is commonly used by traders.

Rhodium cationic complexes using dithioethers as chiral ligands. Application in styrene hydroformylation

Addition of the dithioethers (−)-DIOSR2 (R=Me, iPr) (2,3-O-isopropylidene-1,4-dimethyl (and diisopropyl) thioether-L-threitol) to a dichloromethane solution of [Rh(COD)2]ClO4 (COD=1,5-cyclooctadiene) yielded the mononuclear complexes [Rh(COD)(DIOSR2)]ClO4. X-ray diffraction methods showed that the [Rh(COD)(DIOSiPr2)]ClO4 complex had an square-planar coordination geometry at the rhodium atom with the iPr groups in anti position. Cyclooctadiene complexes react with carbon monoxide to form dinuclear tetracarbonylated complexes [(CO)2Rh(μ-DIOSR2)2(CO)2](ClO4)2. [Rh(COD)(DIOSR2)]ClO4 are active catalyst precursors in styrene hydroformylation at 30 atm and 65°C which give conversions of up to 99% with a regioselectivity in 2-phenylpropanal as high as 74%. In all cases enantioselectivities are low.

Development and application of a method for the purification of free shigatoxigenic bacteriophage from environmental samples

Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) strains are foodborne pathogens whose ability to produce Shiga toxin (Stx) is due to the integration of Stx-encoding lambdoid bacteriophage (Stx phage). Circulating, infective Stx phages are very difficult to isolate, purify and propagate such that there is no information on their genetic composition and properties. Here we describe a novel approach that exploits the phage's ability to infect their host and form a lysogen, thus enabling purification of Stx phages by a series of sequential lysogen isolation and induction steps. A total of 15 Stx phages were rigorously purified from water samples in this way, classified by TEM and genotyped using a PCR-based multi-loci characterisation system. Each phage possessed only one variant of each target gene type, thus confirming its purity, with 9 of the 15 phages possessing a short tail-spike gene and identified by TEM as Podoviridae. The remaining 6 phages possessed long tails, four of which appeared to be contractile in nature (Myoviridae) and two of which were morphologically very similar to bacteriophage lambda (Siphoviridae).

A fast two-grid and finite section method for a class of integral equations on the real line with application to an acoustic scattering problem in the half-plane

We consider the numerical treatment of second kind integral equations on the real line of the form ∅(s) = ∫_(-∞)^(+∞)▒〖κ(s-t)z(t)ϕ(t)dt,s=R〗 (abbreviated ϕ= ψ+K_z ϕ) in which K ϵ L_1 (R), z ϵ L_∞ (R) and ψ ϵ BC(R), the space of bounded continuous functions on R, are assumed known and ϕ ϵ BC(R) is to be determined. We first derive sharp error estimates for the finite section approximation (reducing the range of integration to [-A, A]) via bounds on (1-K_z )^(-1)as an operator on spaces of weighted continuous functions. Numerical solution by a simple discrete collocation method on a uniform grid on R is then analysed: in the case when z is compactly supported this leads to a coefficient matrix which allows a rapid matrix-vector multiply via the FFT. To utilise this possibility we propose a modified two-grid iteration, a feature of which is that the coarse grid matrix is approximated by a banded matrix, and analyse convergence and computational cost. In cases where z is not compactly supported a combined finite section and two-grid algorithm can be applied and we extend the analysis to this case. As an application we consider acoustic scattering in the half-plane with a Robin or impedance boundary condition which we formulate as a boundary integral equation of the class studied. Our final result is that if z (related to the boundary impedance in the application) takes values in an appropriate compact subset Q of the complex plane, then the difference between ϕ(s)and its finite section approximation computed numerically using the iterative scheme proposed is ≤C_1 [kh log⁡〖(1⁄kh)+(1-Θ)^((-1)⁄2) (kA)^((-1)⁄2) 〗 ] in the interval [-ΘA,ΘA](Θ<1) for kh sufficiently small, where k is the wavenumber and h the grid spacing. Moreover this numerical approximation can be computed in ≤C_2 N log⁡N operations, where N = 2A/h is the number of degrees of freedom. The values of the constants C1 and C2 depend only on the set Q and not on the wavenumber k or the support of z.

The heuristic application of explanatory theories in international relations

Explanatory theorists increasingly insist that their theories are useful even though they cannot be deductively applied. But if so, then how do such theories contribute to our understanding of international relations? I argue that explanatory theories are typically heuristically applied: theorists’ accounts of specific empirical episodes are shaped by their theories’ thematic content, but are not inferred from putative causal generalizations or covering laws. These accounts therefore gain no weight from their purely rhetorical association with theories’ quasi-deductive arguments: they must be judged on the plausibility of their empirical claims. Moreover, the quasi-deductive form in which explanatory theories are typically presented obscures their actual explanatory role, which is to indicate what sort of explanation may be required, to provide conceptual categories, and to suggest an empirical focus. This account of how theoretical explanations are constructed subverts the nomothetic–idiographic distinction that is often used to distinguish International Relations from History.