Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Estimating detailed soil water profile records from point measurements

Temporal and spatial patterns of soil water content affect many soil processes including evaporation, infiltration, ground water recharge, erosion and vegetation distribution. This paper describes the analysis of a soil moisture dataset comprising a combination of continuous time series of measurements at a few depths and locations, and occasional roving measurements at a large number of depths and locations. The objectives of the paper are: (i) to develop a technique for combining continuous measurements of soil water contents at a limited number of depths within a soil profile with occasional measurements at a large number of depths, to enable accurate estimation of the soil moisture vertical pattern and the integrated profile water content; and (ii) to estimate time series of soil moisture content at locations where there are just occasional soil water measurements available and some continuous records from nearby locations. The vertical interpolation technique presented here can strongly reduce errors in the estimation of profile soil water and its changes with time. On the other hand, the temporal interpolation technique is tested for different sampling strategies in space and time, and the errors generated in each case are compared.

Extreme complementarity in a macrocycle-tweezer complex

Interaction of a novel pyrene-based tweezer molecule with a macrocyclic ether-imide-sulfone results in formation of a strongly bound complex (K-a = 24 000 M-1) in which binding results not only from pi-pi stacking interactions involving pyrene units as donors and macrocyclic naphthalene-tetracarboximide and biphenylenedisulfone groups as acceptors but also from N-(HO)-O-... and C-(HO)-O-... hydrogen bonds and from "reverse" pi-stacking of the electron-poor isophthaloyl residue of the tweezer with an electron-rich 3-aminophenoxy residue of the macrocyclic imide.

Strongly nucleophilic RhI centre in square-planar complexes with terdentate (κ3) 2,2′:6′,2′′-terpyridine ligands: crystallographic, electrochemical and density functional theoretical studies

Rh-I-terpyridine complexes have been unambiguously formed for the first time. The 2,21:6',2"-terpyridine (tpy), 4'-chloro-2,2':6',2"-terpyridine (4'-Cl-tpy) and 4'-(tert-butyldimethylsilyl-ortho-carboranyl)-2,2':6',2"-terpyridine (carboranyl-tpy) ligands were used for successful syntheses and characterisation of the corresponding Rh-I complexes with halide coligands, [Rh(X)(4'-Y-terpyridine)] (X = Cl, Y = H, Cl, carboranyl; X = Br, Y = H). All four neutral Rh-tpy complexes are square planar, with Rh-X bonds in the plane of the 4'-Y-terpyridine ligands. Full characterisation of these dark blue, highly air-sensitive compounds was hampered by their poor solubility in various organic solvents. This is mainly due to the formation of pi-stacked aggregates, as evidenced by the crystal structure of [Rh(Cl)(tpy)]; in addition, [Rh(Cl)(carboranyl-tpy)] merely forms discrete dimers. The (bonding) properties of the novel Rh-I-terpyridine complexes have been studied with single-crystal X-ray diffraction, (time-dependent) density functional theoretical (DFT) calculations, far-infrared spectroscopy, electronic absorption spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry. From DFT calculations, the HOMO of the studied Rh-I-terpyridine complexes involves predominantly the metal centre, while the LUMO resides on the terpyridine ligand. Absorption bands of the studied complexes in the visible region (400-900 nm) can be assigned to MLCT and MLCT/XLCT transitions. The relatively low oxidation potentials of [Rh(X)(tpy)] (X = Cl, Br) point to a high electron density on the metal centre. This makes the Rh-I-terpyridine complexes strongly nucleophilic and (potentially) highly reactive towards various (small) substrate molecules containing carbon-halide bonds.

On the existence of extreme waves and the Stokes conjecture with vorticity

This is a study of singular solutions of the problem of traveling gravity water waves on flows with vorticity. We show that, for a certain class of vorticity functions, a sequence of regular waves converges to an extreme wave with stagnation points at its crests. We also show that, for any vorticity function, the profile of an extreme wave must have either a corner of 120° or a horizontal tangent at any stagnation point about which it is supposed symmetric. Moreover, the profile necessarily has a corner of 120° if the vorticity is nonnegative near the free surface.

A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

The extreme European summer 2012

The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes.

Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level

Flood simulation models and hazard maps are only as good as the underlying data against which they are calibrated and tested. However, extreme flood events are by definition rare, so the observational data of flood inundation extent are limited in both quality and quantity. The relative importance of these observational uncertainties has increased now that computing power and accurate lidar scans make it possible to run high-resolution 2D models to simulate floods in urban areas. However, the value of these simulations is limited by the uncertainty in the true extent of the flood. This paper addresses that challenge by analyzing a point dataset of maximum water extent from a flood event on the River Eden at Carlisle, United Kingdom, in January 2005. The observation dataset is based on a collection of wrack and water marks from two postevent surveys. A smoothing algorithm for identifying, quantifying, and reducing localized inconsistencies in the dataset is proposed and evaluated showing positive results. The proposed smoothing algorithm can be applied in order to improve flood inundation modeling assessment and the determination of risk zones on the floodplain.

The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012

The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at www.europeanwindstorms.org.

The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5–0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59–0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes.