Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Efficacy of condensed tannins against larval Hymenolepis diminuta (Cestoda) in vitro and in the intermediate host Tenebrio molitor (Coleoptera) in vivo

Natural anti-parasitic compounds in plants such as condensed tannins (CT) have anthelmintic properties against a range of gastrointestinal nematodes, but for other helminths such effects are unexplored. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of CT from three different plant extracts in a model system employing the rat tapeworm, Hymenolepis diminuta, in its intermediate host, Tenebrio molitor. An in vitro study examined infectivity of H. diminuta cysticercoids (excystation success) isolated from infected beetles exposed to different concentrations of CT extracts from pine bark (PB) (Pinus sps), hazelnut pericarp (HN) (Corylus avellana) or white clover flowers (WC) (Trifolium repens), in comparison with the anthelmintic drug praziquantel (positive control). In the in vitro study, praziquantel and CT from all three plant extracts had dose-dependent inhibitory effects on cysticercoid excystation. The HN extract was most effective at inhibiting excystation, followed by PB and WC. An in vivo study was carried out on infected beetles (measured as cysticercoid establishment) fed different doses of PB, HN and praziquantel. There was a highly significant inhibitory effect of HN on cysticercoid development (p = 0.0002). Overall, CT showed a promising anti-cestodal effect against the metacestode stage of H. diminuta.