A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled chemistry–climate models

Evaluating CCMs with the presented framework will increase our confidence in predictions of stratospheric ozone change.

Successful strategy making in Bupa not-for-profit provident: a case study and interview with Mr Ray King, chief executive of Bupa

Purpose – The focus of extant strategy literature is on for-profit organisations and within these group public organisations. There are other forms of organisations and following the deep recession of 2008 there is greater interest in other forms of organisation. In this case study and interview the aim is to examine strategy, strategic decisions and strategic management of a not-for-profit provident. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on documentary evidence and a semi-structured interview with Ray King, chief executive of Bupa. The perspective of CEO is key in strategy and such perspectives are relatively rarer. Findings – Bupa invests its surplus to provide better healthcare. Free from the pressures of quarterly reporting and shareholders it can pursue long-term value creation for members rather than short-term surpluses. Research limitations/implications – The case study and interview offers a unique insight into strategy-making within a successful mutual provident that has grown organically and externally becoming an international leader in health insurance. Originality/value – This case study sheds light on strategy-making within a not-for-profit provident that has diversified and grown significantly over the past six decades. Furthermore, very few case studies offer insight into the thinking of a chief executive who has successfully managed a business in a turbulent environment.

The evolution of strategy: thinking war from antiquity to the present

Latin had no word for "strategy", but the East Romans, whom we call the Byzantines, did. This book tracks the evolution of the concept of warfare being subjected to higher political aims from Antiquity to the Present, using Greek, Latin, French, Spanish, Italian, English and German sources. It tracks the rise, fall, and resurrection of the belief in the Roman and later the medieval and early modern world that warfare was only legitimate if it pursued the higher goal of a just peace, which in the 19th century gave way to a blinkered concentration on military victory as only war aim. It explains why one school of thought, from Antiquity to the present, emphasised eternal principles of warfare, while others emphasised, in Clausewitz's term, the "changing character of war". It tracks ideas from land warfare to naval warfare to air power and nuclear thinking, but it also stresses great leaps and discontinuities in thinking about strategy. It covers asymmetric wars both from the point of view of the weaker power seeking to overthrow a stronger power, and from the stronger power dealing with insurgents and other numerically inferior forces. It concludes with a commentary of the long-known problems of bureaucratic politics, non-centralised command and inter-service rivalry, which since the 16th century or earlier has created obstacles to coherent strategy making.

Jersey milk suitability for Cheddar cheese production: process, yield, quality and financial impacts

The aim of this study was to first evaluate the benefits of including Jersey milk into Holstein-Friesian milk on the Cheddar cheese making process and secondly, using the data gathered, identify the effects and relative importance of a wide range of milk components on milk coagulation properties and the cheese making process. Blending Jersey and Holstein-Friesian milk led to quadratic trends on the size of casein micelle and fat globule and on coagulation properties. However this was not found to affect the cheese making process. Including Jersey milk was found, on a pilot scale, to increase cheese yield (up to + 35 %) but it did not affect cheese quality, which was defined as compliance with the legal requirements of cheese composition, cheese texture, colour and grading scores. Profitability increased linearly with the inclusion of Jersey milk (up to 11.18 p£ L-1 of milk). The commercial trials supported the pilot plant findings, demonstrating that including Jersey milk increased cheese yield without having a negative impact on cheese quality, despite the inherent challenges of scaling up such a process commercially. The successful use of a large array of milk components to model the cheese making process challenged the commonly accepted view that fat, protein and casein content and protein to fat ratio are the main contributors to the cheese making process as other components such as the size of casein micelle and fat globule were found to also play a key role with small casein micelle and large fat globule reducing coagulation time, improving curd firmness, fat recovery and influencing cheese moisture and fat content. The findings of this thesis indicated that milk suitability for Cheddar making could be improved by the inclusion of Jersey milk and that more compositional factors need to be taken into account when judging milk suitability.

Disabled access and heritage attractions

In a UK context, the importance of heritage tourism, the potential of the disabled market, and government policies concerning tourism, social inclusion, and the historic environment provide the setting within which access improvements at heritage attractions for disabled visitors are studied. At issue is how disabled access and conservation can be reconciled. The stakeholders range from the central actors, the disabled tourists and the heritage tourism service providers, through to the gatekeeper and lobby players in the conservation, disability, and tourism contexts. The critical power structures are identified. Changes to the historic environment are managed through the conservation planning system in which disability interests are not formally represented. Recent disability discrimination legislation has not altered this balance of power, and is a source of uncertainty over the access standards that should apply to heritage attractions. An evaluation of progress in implementing access improvements at heritage attractions reveals the limited extent of improvements undertaken to date. Consideration is given not only to physical access but also to alternative methods (intellectual access) of providing the heritage tourism service. In conclusion, the situation is examined from three perspectives. From the disabled tourists' perspective, choice of heritage attractions to visit remains restricted compared to that of nondisabled tourists. The lack of consultation with disabled stakeholders in the access improvements decision-making process is discussed, including the acceptability of alternative methods of service delivery to disabled tourists. The uncertainties facing heritage tourism service providers arising from the disability discrimination legislation are considered but, to ensure a more balanced recognition of disability interests, both conservation planning and disability discrimination legislation need to be amended, adjusting the roles of the legislative gatekeepers.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model.

1. There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6. Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

A pattern language for goals

Previous work has established the value of goal-oriented approaches to requirements engineering. Achieving clarity and agreement about stakeholders’ goals and assumptions is critical for building successful software systems and managing their subsequent evolution. In general, this decision-making process requires stakeholders to understand the implications of decisions outside the domains of their own expertise. Hence it is important to support goal negotiation and decision making with description languages that are both precise and expressive, yet easy to grasp. This paper presents work in progress to develop a pattern language for describing goal refinement graphs. The language has a simple graphical notation, which is supported by a prototype editor tool, and a symbolic notation based on modal logic.

Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an 'unweighted' form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An illustration of the modelling of cost and efficacy data from a clinical trial

Health care providers, purchasers and policy makers need to make informed decisions regarding the provision of cost-effective care. When a new health care intervention is to be compared with the current standard, an economic evaluation alongside an evaluation of health benefits provides useful information for the decision making process. We consider the information on cost-effectiveness which arises from an individual clinical trial comparing the two interventions. Recent methods for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis for a clinical trial have focused on the net benefit parameter. The net benefit parameter, a function of costs and health benefits, is positive if the new intervention is cost-effective compared with the standard. In this paper we describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis which have been suggested in the literature and apply them to data from a clinical trial comparing laparoscopic surgery with open mesh surgery for the repair of inguinal hernias. We extend the Bayesian model to allow the total cost to be divided into a number of different components. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are discussed. In January 2001, NICE issued guidance on the type of surgery to be used for inguinal hernia repair. We discuss our example in the light of this information. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model

1.There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6.Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

Trends in the start of the wet season over Africa

A quarter of a century of daily rainfall data from the Global Telecommunications System are used to define the temporal and spatial variability of the start of the wet season over Africa and surrounding extreme south of Europe and parts of the Middle East. From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed. In some parts of the continent, there was an annual increase in the start date of up to 4 days per year. On average, the start of the wet season arrived 9–21 days later from 1978 to 2002, depending on the threshold used to define the start of the rains (varying from 10–30 mm over 2 days, with no dry period in the following 10 days). It is noted that the inter-annual variability of the start of the wet season is high with the range of start dates varying on average from 116 to 142 days dependent on the threshold used to determine the start date. These results may have important implications for agriculturists on all levels (from the individual farmer to those responsible for regional food supply), as knowledge of potential future climate changes starts to play an increasingly important role in the agricultural decision-making process, such as sowing and harvesting times.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

L’AIR nella pratica di una Autorità indipendente: l’esperienza dell’Autorità per l’energia elettrica e il gas di applicazione dell’AIR alla regolazione della qualità del servizio

In the last ten years Regulatory Impact Analysis has become the instrument providing groundwork for evidence-based regulatory decisions in most developed countries. However, to an increase in quantity, it did not correspond an increase in quality. In Italy, Regulatory Impact Analysis has been in place for ten years on paper, but in practice it has not been performed consistently. Of particular interest is the case of independent regulatory authorities, which have been required to apply Regulatory Impact Analysis since 2003. This paper explores how Regulatory Impact Analysis is carried out, by examining in depth how an individual case –on the Regulation for Quality of Service- was executed by the Autorità per l’energia elettrica e il gas. The aim is to provide a picture of the process leading to the final Regulatory Impact Analysis report, rather than just a study of its content. The case illustrates how Regulatory Impact Analysis, when properly employed, can be an important aid to the regulatory decision, not only by assessing ex ante the economic impacts of regulatory proposals in terms of costs, benefits and risks, but also opening the spectrum of policy alternatives and systematically considering stakeholder opinions as part of the decision-making process. This case highlights also several difficulties, analytical and process-related, that emerge in practical applications. Finally, it shows that the experience and expertise built by the regulatory authority over the years had a significant impact on the quality of the analysis.