The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Simulations of angular momentum evolution in wind-fed CV precursors

It is thought that the secondary stars in cataclysmic variables (CVs) may undergo a period of mass loss in the form of a wind during the evolution of the system (Mullan et al. 1992). This wind is thought to magnetically brake the secondary star with a time-scale ~ 10^8 yr (e.g. van Paradijs 1986). When the secondary’s spin has been brought close to synchronism with the orbit it is possible for tidal torques to lock the secondary in synchronous rotation.

Simulated global-mean sea level changes over the last half-millennium

Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.

Food restriction reverses the hyper-muscular phenotype and force generation capacity deficit of the myostatin null mouse

Food restriction has a great impact on skeletal muscle mass by inducing muscle protein breakdown to provide substrates for energy production through gluconeogenesis. Genetic models of hyper-muscularity interfere with the normal balance between protein synthesis and breakdown which eventually results in extreme muscle growth. Mutations or deletions in the myostatin gene result in extreme muscle mass. Here we evaluated the impact of food restriction for a period of 5 weeks on skeletal muscle size (i.e., fibre cross-sectional area), fibre type composition and contractile properties (i.e., tetanic and specific force) in myostatin null mice. We found that this hyper-muscular model was more susceptible to catabolic processes than wild type mice. The mechanism of skeletal muscle mass loss was examined and our data shows that the myostatin null mice placed on a low calorie diet maintained the activity of molecules involved in protein synthesis and did not up-regulate the expression of genes pivotal in ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation. However, we did find an increase in the expression of genes associated with autophagy. Surprisingly, the reduction on muscle size was followed by improved tetanic and specific force in the null mice compared to wild type mice. These data provide evidence that food restriction may revert the hyper-muscular phenotype of the myostatin null mouse restoring muscle function.

Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

Moisture can be the dominant environmental parameter governing cadaver decomposition in soil

Forensic taphonomy involves the use of decomposition to estimate postmortem interval (PMI) or locate clandestine graves. Yet, cadaver decomposition remains poorly understood, particularly following burial in soil. Presently, we do not know how most edaphic and environmental parameters, including soil moisture, influence the breakdown of cadavers following burial and alter the processes that are used to estimate PMI and locate clandestine graves. To address this, we buried juvenile rat (Rattus rattus) cadavers (∼18 g wet weight) in three contrasting soils from tropical savanna ecosystems located in Pallarenda (sand), Wambiana (medium clay), or Yabulu (loamy sand), Queensland, Australia. These soils were sieved (2 mm), weighed (500 g dry weight), calibrated to a matric potential of -0.01 megapascals (MPa), -0.05 MPa, or -0.3 MPa (wettest to driest) and incubated at 22 °C. Measurements of cadaver decomposition included cadaver mass loss, carbon dioxide-carbon (CO2-C) evolution, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), protease activity, phosphodiesterase activity, ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NRN) and soil pH. Cadaver burial resulted in a significant increase in CO2-C evolution, MBC, enzyme activities, NRN and soil pH. Cadaver decomposition in loamy sand and sandy soil was greater at lower matric potentials (wetter soil). However, optimal matric potential for cadaver decomposition in medium clay was exceeded, which resulted in a slower rate of cadaver decomposition in the wettest soil. Slower cadaver decomposition was also observed at high matric potential (-0.3 MPa). Furthermore, wet sandy soil was associated with greater cadaver decomposition than wet fine-textured soil. We conclude that gravesoil moisture content can modify the relationship between temperature and cadaver decomposition and that soil microorganisms can play a significant role in cadaver breakdown. We also conclude that soil NRN is a more reliable indicator of gravesoil than soil pH.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Does repeated burial of skeletal muscle tissue (Ovis aries) in soil affect subsequent decomposition?

The repeated introduction of an organic resource to soil can result in its enhanced degradation. This phenomenon is of primary importance in agroecosystems, where the dynamics of repeated nutrient, pesticide, and herbicide amendment must be understood to achieve optimal yield. Although not yet investigated, the repeated introduction of cadaveric material is an important area of research in forensic science and cemetery planning. It is not currently understood what effects the repeated burial of cadaveric material has on cadaver decomposition or soil processes such as carbon mineralization. To address this gap in knowledge, we conducted a laboratory experiment using ovine (Ovis aries) skeletal muscle tissue (striated muscle used for locomotion) and three contrasting soils (brown earth, rendzina, podsol) from Great Britain. This experiment comprised two stages. In Stage I skeletal muscle tissue (150 g as 1.5 g cubes) was buried in sieved (4.6 mm) soil (10 kg dry weight) calibrated to 60% water holding capacity and allowed to decompose in the dark for 70 days at 22 °C. Control samples comprised soil without skeletal muscle tissue. In Stage II, soils were weighed (100 g dry weight at 60% WHC) into 1285 ml incubation microcosms. Half of the soils were designated for a second tissue amendment, which comprised the burial (2.5 cm) of 1.5 g cube of skeletal muscle tissue. The remaining half of the samples did not receive tissue. Thus, four treatments were used in each soil, reflecting all possible combinations of tissue burial (+) and control (−). Subsequent measures of tissue mass loss, carbon dioxide-carbon evolution, soil microbial biomass carbon, metabolic quotient and soil pH show that repeated burial of skeletal muscle tissue was associated with a significantly greater rate of decomposition in all soils. However, soil microbial biomass following repeated burial was either not significantly different (brown earth, podsol) or significantly less (rendzina) than new gravesoil. Based on these results, we conclude that enhanced decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue was most likely due to the proliferation of zymogenous soil microbes able to better use cadaveric material re-introduced to the soil.

Temperature affects microbial decomposition of cadavers (Rattus rattus) in contrasting soils

The ecology of soils associated with dead mammals (i.e. cadavers) is poorly understood. Although temperature and soil type are well known to influence the decomposition of other organic resource patches, the effect of these variables on the degradation of cadavers in soil has received little experimental investigation. To address this, cadavers of juvenile rats (Rattus rattus) were buried in one of three contrasting soils (Sodosol, Rudosol, and Vertosol) from tropical savanna ecosystems in Queensland, Australia and incubated at 29 °C, 22 °C, or 15 °C in a laboratory setting. Cadavers and soils were destructively sampled at intervals of 7 days over an incubation period of 28 days. Measurements of decomposition included cadaver mass loss, carbon dioxide–carbon (CO2–C) evolution, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), protease activity, phosphodiesterase activity, and soil pH, which were all significantly positively affected by cadaver burial. A temperature effect was observed where peaks or differences in decomposition that at occurred at higher temperature would occur at later sample periods at lower temperature. Soil type also had an important effect on some measured parameters. These findings have important implications for a largely unexplored area of soil ecology and nutrient cycling, which are significant for forensic science, cemetery planning and livestock carcass disposal.

Microbial decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue (Ovis aries) in a sandy loam soil at different temperatures

A laboratory experiment was conducted to determine the effect of temperature (2, 12, 22 °C) on the rate of aerobic decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue (Ovis aries) in a sandy loam soil incubated for a period of 42 days. Measurements of decomposition processes included skeletal muscle tissue mass loss, carbon dioxide (CO2) evolution, microbial biomass, soil pH, skeletal muscle tissue carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content and the calculation of metabolic quotient (qCO2). Incubation temperature and skeletal muscle tissue quality had a significant effect on all of the measured process rates with 2 °C usually much lower than 12 and 22 °C. Cumulative CO2 evolution at 2, 12 and 22 °C equaled 252, 619 and 905 mg CO2, respectively. A significant correlation (P<0.001) was detected between cumulative CO2 evolution and tissue mass loss at all temperatures. Q10s for mass loss and CO2 evolution, which ranged from 1.19 to 3.95, were higher for the lower temperature range (Q10(2– 12 °C)>Q10(12–22 °C)) in the Ovis samples and lower for the low temperature range (Q10(2–12 °C)

A laboratory incubation method for determining the rate of microbiological degradation of skeletal muscle tissue in soil

A controlled laboratory experiment is described, in principle and practice, which can be used for the of determination the rate of tissue decomposition in soil. By way of example, an experiment was conducted to determine the effect of temperature (12°C, 22°C) on the aerobic decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue (Organic Texel × Suffolk lamb (Ovis aries)) in a sandy loam soil. Measurements of decomposition processes included muscle tissue mass loss, microbial CO2 respiration, and muscle tissue carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Muscle tissue mass loss at 22°C always was greater than at 12°C (p < 0.001). Microbial respiration was greater in samples incubated at 22°C for the initial 21 days of burial (p < 0.01). All buried muscle tissue samples demonstrated changes in C and N content at the end of the experiment. A significant correlation (p < 0.001) was demonstrated between the loss of muscle tissue-derived C (C1) and microbially-respired C (Cm) demonstrating CO2 respiration may be used to predict mass loss and hence biodegradation. In this experiment Q10 (12°C - 22°C) = 2.0. This method is recommended as a useful tool in determining the effect of environmental variables on the rate of decomposition of various tissues and associated materials.

Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

Interactions between mass balance, atmospheric circulation, and recent climate change on the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus Mountains, Russia

This paper reports recent changes in the mass balance record from the Djankuat Glacier, central greater Caucasus, Russia, and investigates possible relationships between the components of mass balance, local climate, and distant atmospheric forcing. The results clearly show that a strong warming signal has emerged in the central greater Caucasus, particularly since the 1993/1994 mass balance year, and this has led to a significant increase in the summer ablation of Djankuat. At the same time, there has been no compensating consistent increase in winter precipitation and accumulation leading to the strong net loss of mass and increase in glacier runoff. Interannual variability in ablation and accumulation is partly associated with certain major patterns of Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. The positive phase of the North Pacific (NP) teleconnection pattern forces negative geopotential height and temperature anomalies over the Caucasus in summer and results in reduced summer melt, such as in the early 1990s, when positive NP extremes resulted in a temporary decline in ablation rates. The positive phase of the NP is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and it is possible that a teleconnection between the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and summer air temperatures in the Caucasus is bridged through the NP pattern. More recently, the NP pattern was predominantly negative, and this distant moderating forcing on summer ablation in the Caucasus was absent. Statistically significant correlations are observed between accumulation and the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern. The frequent occurrence of the positive SCA phase at the beginning of accumulation season results in lower than average snowfall and reduced accumulation. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and accumulation is weak, although positive precipitation anomalies in the winter months are associated with the negative phase of the NAO. A stronger positive correlation is observed between accumulation on Djankuat and geopotential height over the Bay of Biscay unrelated to the established modes of the Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. These results imply that the mass balance of Djankuat is sensitive to the natural variability in the climate system. Distant forcing, however, explains only 16% of the variance in the ablation record and cannot fully explain the recent increase in ablation and negative mass balance.