Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

Quantifying the effect of buffer zones, crop areas and spatial aggregation on the externalities of genetically modified crops at landscape level

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative comparison between the use of 3D vs 2D visualization tools to present building design proposals to non-spatial skilled end users

Information technology in construction (ITC) has been gaining wide acceptance and is being implemented in the construction research domains as a tool to assist decision makers. Most of the research into visualization technologies (VT) has been on the wide range of 3D and simulation applications suitable for construction processes. Despite its development with interoperability and standardization of products, VT usage has remained very low when it comes to communicating and addressing the needs of building end-users (BEU). This paper argues that building end users are a source of experience and expertise that can be brought into the briefing stage for the evaluation of design proposals. It also suggests that the end user is a source of new ideas promoting innovation. In this research a positivistic methodology that includes the comparison of 3D models and the traditional 2D methods is proposed. It will help to identify "how much", if anything, a non-spatial specialist can gain in terms Of "understanding" of a particular design proposal presented, using both methods.

The spatial and temporal shape of oculomotor inhibition

Selecting a stimulus as the target for a goal-directed movement involves inhibiting other competing possible responses. Inhibition has generally proved hard to study behaviorally, because it results in no measurable output. The effect of distractors on the shape of oculomotor and manual trajectories provide evidence of such inhibition. Individual saccades may deviate initially either towards, or away from, a competing distractor - the direction and extent of this deviation depends upon saccade latency, target predictability and the target to distractor separation. The experiment reported here used these effects to show how inhibition of distractor locations develops over time. Distractors could be presented at various distances from unpredictable and predictable targets in two separate experiments. The deviation of saccade trajectories was compared between trials with and without distractors. Inhibition was measured by saccade trajectory deviation. Inhibition was found to increase as the distractor distance from target decreased but was found to increase with saccade latency at all distractor distances (albeit to different peaks). Surprisingly, no differences were found between unpredictable and predictable targets perhaps because our saccade latencies were generally long (similar to 260-280 ms.). We conclude that oculomotor inhibition of saccades to possible target objects involves the same mechanisms for all distractor distances and target types. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal aspects of oculomotor inhibition as revealed by saccade trajectories

The spatial and temporal effect of distractor related inhibition on stimulus elicited (reflexive) and goal driven (voluntary) saccades, was examined using saccade trajectory deviations as a measure. Subjects made voluntary and reflexive saccades to a target location on the vertical midline, while the distance of a distractor from the target was systematically manipulated. The trajectory curvature of both voluntary and reflexive saccades was found to be subject to individual differences. Saccade curvature was found to decrease monotonically with increasing distractor distance from target for some subjects while for others no reduction in curvature or even an increase was found. These results could not be explained by latency differences or landing position effects. The different patterns of distractor effects on saccade trajectories suggest the additional influence of a non-spatial inhibitory mechanism. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of the spatial extent of oculomotor inhibition

Inhibition is intimately involved in the ability to select a target for a goal-directed movement. The effect of distracters on the deviation of oculomotor trajectories and landing positions provides evidence of such inhibition. individual saccade trajectories and landing positions may deviate initially either towards, or away from, a competing distracter-the direction and extent of this deviation depends upon saccade latency and the target to distracter separation. However, the underlying commonality of the sources of oculomotor inhibition has not been investigated. Here we report the relationship between distracter-related deviation of saccade trajectory, landing position and saccade latency. Observers saccaded to a target which could be accompanied by a distracter shown at various distances from very close (10 angular degrees) to far away (120 angular degrees). A fixation-gap paradigm was used to manipulate latency independently of the influence of competing distracters. When distracters were close to the target, saccade trajectory and landing position deviated toward the distracter position, while at greater separations landing position was always accurate but trajectories deviated away from the distracters. Different spatial patterns of deviations across latency were found. This pattern of results is consistent with the metrics of the saccade reflecting coarse pooling of the ongoing activity at the distracter location: saccade trajectory reflects activity at saccade initiation while landing position reveals activity at saccade end. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perceived spatial displacement of motion-defined contours in peripheral vision

The perceived displacement of motion-defined contours in peripheral vision was examined in four experiments. In Experiment 1, in line with Ramachandran and Anstis' finding [Ramachandran, V. S., & Anstis, S. M. (1990). Illusory displacement of equiluminous kinetic edges. Perception, 19, 611-616], the border between a field of drifting dots and a static dot pattern was apparently displaced in the same direction as the movement of the dots. When a uniform dark area was substituted for the static dots, a similar displacement was found, but this was smaller and statistically insignificant. In Experiment 2, the border between two fields of dots moving in opposite directions was displaced in the direction of motion of the dots in the more eccentric field, so that the location of a boundary defined by a diverging pattern is perceived as more eccentric, and that defined by a converging as less eccentric. Two explanations for this effect (that the displacement reflects a greater weight given to the more eccentric motion, or that the region containing stronger centripetal motion components expands perceptually into that containing centrifugal motion) were tested in Experiment 3, by varying the velocity of the more eccentric region. The results favoured the explanation based on the expansion of an area in centripetal motion. Experiment 4 showed that the difference in perceived location was unlikely to be due to differences in the discriminability of contours in diverging and converging pattems, and confirmed that this effect is due to a difference between centripetal and centrifugal motion rather than motion components in other directions. Our result provides new evidence for a bias towards centripetal motion in human vision, and suggests that the direction of motion-induced displacement of edges is not always in the direction of an adjacent moving pattern. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The spatial distribution of carbon dioxide in an environmental test chamber

The spatial distribution of CO2 level in a classroom carried out in previous field work research has demonstrated that there is some evidence of variations in CO2 concentration in a classroom space. Significant fluctuations in CO2 concentration were found at different sampling points depending on the ventilation strategies and environmental conditions prevailing in individual classrooms. However, how these variations are affected by the emitting sources and the room air movement remains unknown. Hence, it was concluded that detailed investigation of the CO2 distribution need to be performed on a smaller scale. As a result, it was decided to use an environmental chamber with various methods and rates of ventilation, for the same internal temperature and heat loads, to study the effect of ventilation strategy and air movement on the distribution of CO2 concentration in a room. The role of human exhalation and its interaction with the plume induced by the body's convective flow and room air movement due to different ventilation strategies were studied in a chamber at the University of Reading. These phenomena are considered to be important in understanding and predicting the flow patterns in a space and how these impact on the distribution of contaminants. This paper attempts to study the CO2 dispersion and distribution at the exhalation zone of two people sitting in a chamber as well as throughout the occupied zone of the chamber. The horizontal and vertical distributions of CO2 were sampled at locations with a probability that CO2 variation is considered high. Although the room size, source location, ventilation rate and location of air supply and extract devices all can have influence on the CO2 distribution, this article gives general guidelines on the optimum positioning of CO2 sensor in a room.

Carbon balance of UK peatlands: current state of knowledge and future research challenges

The retention of peatland carbon (C) and the ability to continue to draw down and store C from the atmosphere is not only important for the UK terrestrial carbon inventory, but also for a range of ecosystem services, the landscape value and the ecology and hydrology of ~15% of the land area of the UK. Here we review the current state of knowledge on the C balance of UK peatlands using several studies which highlight not only the importance of making good flux measurements, but also the spatial and temporal variability of different flux terms that characterise a landscape affected by a range of natural and anthropogenic processes and threats. Our data emphasise the importance of measuring (or accurately estimating) all components of the peatland C budget. We highlight the role of the aquatic pathway and suggest that fluxes are higher than previously thought. We also compare the contemporary C balance of several UK peatlands with historical rates of C accumulation measured using peat cores, thus providing a long-term context for present-day measurements and their natural year-on-year variability. Contemporary measurements from 2 sites suggest that current accumulation rates (–56 to –72 g C m–2 yr–1) are at the lower end of those seen over the last 150 yr in peat cores (–35 to –209 g C m–2 yr–1). Finally, we highlight significant current gaps in knowledge and identify where levels of uncertainty are high, as well as emphasise the research challenges that need to be addressed if we are to improve the measurement and prediction of change in the peatland C balance over future decades.

Land re-use, complexity and actor-networks: a framework for research

This paper will present a conceptual framework for the examination of land redevelopment based on a complex systems/networks approach. As Alvin Toffler insightfully noted, modern scientific enquiry has become exceptionally good at splitting problems into pieces but has forgotten how to put the pieces back together. Twenty-five years after his remarks, governments and corporations faced with the requirements of sustainability are struggling to promote an ‘integrated’ or ‘holistic’ approach to tackling problems. Despite the talk, both practice and research provide few platforms that allow for ‘joined up’ thinking and action. With socio-economic phenomena, such as land redevelopment, promising prospects open up when we assume that their constituents can make up complex systems whose emergent properties are more than the sum of the parts and whose behaviour is inherently difficult to predict. A review of previous research shows that it has mainly focused on idealised, ‘mechanical’ views of property development processes that fail to recognise in full the relationships between actors, the structures created and their emergent qualities. When reality failed to live up to the expectations of these theoretical constructs then somebody had to be blamed for it: planners, developers, politicians. However, from a ‘synthetic’ point of view the agents and networks involved in property development can be seen as constituents of structures that perform complex processes. These structures interact, forming new more complex structures and networks. Redevelopment then can be conceptualised as a process of transformation: a complex system, a ‘dissipative’ structure involving developers, planners, landowners, state agencies etc., unlocks the potential of previously used sites, transforms space towards a higher order of complexity and ‘consumes’ but also ‘creates’ different forms of capital in the process. Analysis of network relations point toward the ‘dualism’ of structure and agency in these processes of system transformation and change. Insights from actor network theory can be conjoined with notions of complexity and chaos to build an understanding of the ways in which actors actively seek to shape these structures and systems, whilst at the same time are recursively shaped by them in their strategies and actions. This approach transcends the blame game and allows for inter-disciplinary inputs to be placed within a broader explanatory framework that does away with many past dichotomies. Better understanding of the interactions between actors and the emergent qualities of the networks they form can improve our comprehension of the complex socio-spatial phenomena that redevelopment comprises. The insights that this framework provides when applied in UK institutional investment into redevelopment are considered to be significant.