Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction: perspectives for economically important wild species and neglected crops in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is one of the major centres of origin and diversification of cultivated plants and many crop wild relatives are found there. In addition, many native species are still widely harvested from the wild for food, medicine and other uses and some of these have potential for development as alternative crop especially in marginal zones. While there have been several recent initiatives that address the cataloguing and conservation of these species, such as the Network on Identification, Conservation and Use of Wild Plants in the Mediterranean Region (MEDUSA and the Bioversity International (IPGRI) studies on Underutilized Mediterranean Species (VMS), no comprehensive assessment has yet been made and little work undertaken on their agricultural potential. It has been confidently predicted that consequences of global change in the Mediterranean region - population movements and migrations, changes in disturbance regimes, and climate change - will be serious. One the one hand, this will affect the survival prospects of many of these underutilized species and on the other hand it will enhance their importance as the source of potential new crop germplasm. The conservation and availability of genetic diversity of both crops and underutilized species is essential if we are to be able to meet the increasing demand for food and other crops that will be adapted to the new ecoclimatic envelopes that will develop in the region as a consequence of global change. The rapid rate of climatic and other change that is expected adds urgency to the task of assessing, conserving and sustainably using this rich diversity of wild species of economic value in the region but new strategies will be need to be developed to achieve this. The Mediterranean region has the potential of becoming a major source of new crop development in the coming decades.

Export of dissolved organic carbon from an upland peatland during storm events: implications for flux estimates

Most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported from catchments is transported during storm events. Accurate assessments of DOC fluxes are essential to understand long-term trends in the transport of DOC from terrestrial to aquatic systems, and also the loss of carbon from peatlands to determine changes in the source/sink status of peatland carbon stores. However, many long-term monitoring programmes collect water samples at a frequency (e.g. weekly/monthly) less than the time period of a typical storm event (typically <1–2 days). As widespread observations in catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils have shown that both concentration and flux of DOC increases during storm events, lower frequency monitoring could result in substantial underestimation of DOC flux as the most dynamic periods of transport are missed. However, our intensive monitoring study in a UK upland peatland catchment showed a contrasting response to these previous studies. Our results showed that (i) DOC concentrations decreased during autumn storm events and showed a poor relationship with flow during other seasons; and that (ii) this decrease in concentrations during autumn storms caused DOC flux estimates based on weekly monitoring data to be over-estimated, rather than under-estimated, because of over rather than under estimation of the flow-weighted mean concentration used in flux calculations. However, as DOC flux is ultimately controlled by discharge volume, and therefore rainfall, and the magnitude of change in discharge was greater than the magnitude of decline in concentrations, DOC flux increased during individual storm events. The implications for long-term DOC trends are therefore contradictory, as increased rainfall could increase flux but cause an overall decrease in DOC concentrations from peatland streams. Care needs to be taken when interpreting long-term trends in DOC flux rather than concentration; as flux is calculated from discharge estimates, and discharge is controlled by rainfall, DOC flux and rainfall/discharge will always be well correlated.

International financial centres, office market rents and volatility

Despite continuing developments in information technology and the growing economic significance of the emerging Eastern European, South American and Asian economies, international financial activity remains strongly concentrated in a relatively small number of international financial centres. That concentration of financial activity requires a critical mass of office occupation and creates demand for high specification, high cost space. The demand for that space is increasingly linked to the fortunes of global capital markets. That linkage has been emphasised by developments in real estate markets, notably the development of global real estate investment, innovation in property investment vehicles and the growth of debt securitisation. The resultant interlinking of occupier, asset, debt and development markets within and across global financial centres is a source of potential volatility and risk. The paper sets out a broad conceptual model of the linkages and their implications for systemic market risk and presents preliminary empirical results that provide support for the model proposed.

Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling

The problem of reconstructing the (otherwise unknown) source and sink field of a tracer in a fluid is studied by developing and testing a simple tracer transport model of a single-level global atmosphere and a dynamic data assimilation system. The source/sink field (taken to be constant over a 10-day assimilation window) and initial tracer field are analysed together by assimilating imperfect tracer observations over the window. Experiments show that useful information about the source/sink field may be determined from relatively few observations when the initial tracer field is known very accurately a-priori, even when a-priori source/sink information is biased (the source/sink a-priori is set to zero). In this case each observation provides information about the source/sink field at positions upstream and the assimilation of many observations together can reasonably determine the location and strength of a test source.

Taking the shopping centre online: new models in e-commerce

Purpose – This paper aims to provide a brief re´sume´ of previous research which has analysed the impact of e-commerce on retail real estate in the UK, and to examine the important marketing role of the internet for shopping centre managers, and retail landlords. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the results from a wider study carried out in 2003, the paper uses case studies from two different shopping centres in the UK, and documents the innovative uses of both web-based marketing and online retailing by organisations that historically have not directly been involved in the retailing process. Findings – The paper highlights the importance of considering online sales within a multi-channel approach to retailing. The two types of emerging shopping centre model which are identified are characterised by their ultimate relationship with the physical shopping centre on whose web site they reside. These can be summarised as: the “centre-led” approach, and the “brand-led” or “marketing-led” approach. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a limited number of in-depth case studies and secondary data. Further research is needed to monitor the continuing impact of e-commerce on retail property and the marketing strategies of shopping centre managers and owners. Practical implications – Internet-based sales provide an important adjunct to conventional retail sales and an important source of potential risk for landlords and tenants in the real estate investment market. Regardless of whether retailers use the internet as a sales channel, as a product-sourcing tool, or merely to provide information to the consumer, the internet has become a keystone within the greater retail marketing mix. The findings have ramifications for understanding the way in which landlords are structuring their retail property to defray potential risks. Originality/value – The paper examines shopping centre online marketing models for the first time in detail, and will be of value to retail occupiers, owners and other stakeholders of shopping centres.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors.

A comparative value of electricity storage within GB market mechanisms

This paper investigates the value of a generic storage system within two GB market mechanisms and one ancillary service provision: the wholesale power market, the Balancing Mechanism and Firm Frequency Response (FFR). Three models are evaluated under perfect foresight and fixed horizon which is subsequently extended to explore the impact of a longer foresight on market revenues. The results show that comparatively, the balancing mechanism represents the highest source of potential revenues followed by the wholesale power market and Firm Frequency Response respectively. Longer horizons show diminishing returns, with the 1 day horizon providing the vast majority of total revenues. However storage power capacity utilization benefits from such long horizons. These results could imply that short horizons are very effective in capturing revenues in both the wholesale market and balancing mechanism whereas sizing of a storage system should take into consideration horizon foresight and accuracy for greater benefit.

Living to die and dying to live: the survival strategy behind leaf senescence

Senescence represents the final developmental act of the leaf, during which the leaf cell is dismantled in a coordinated manner to remobilize nutrients and to secure reproductive success. The process of senescence provides the plant with phenotypic plasticity to help it adapt to adverse environmental conditions. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the factors and mechanisms that control the onset of senescence. We explain how the competence to senesce is established during leaf development, as depicted by the senescence window model. We also discuss the mechanisms by which phytohormones and environmental stresses control senescence, as well as the impact of source-sink relationships on plant yield and stress tolerance. In addition, we discuss the role of senescence as a strategy for stress adaptation and how crop production and food quality could benefit from engineering or breeding crops with altered onset of senescence.

A potential lag between the open solar magnetic source flux and solar EUV and X-ray emissions as measured by the Earth's ionosphere during total solar eclipses

Measurements of the ionospheric E-region during total solar eclipses have been used to provide information about the evolution of the solar magnetic field and EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere. By measuring levels of ionisation during an eclipse and comparing these measurements with an estimate of the unperturbed ionisation levels (such as those made during a control day, where available) it is possible to estimate the percentage of ionising radiation being emitted by the solar corona and chromosphere. Previously unpublished data from the two eclipses presented here are particularly valuable as they provide information that supplements the data published to date. The eclipse of 23 October 1976 over Australia provides information in a data gap that would otherwise have spanned the years 1966 to 1991. The eclipse of 4 December 2002 over Southern Africa is important as it extends the published sequence of measurements. Comparing measurements from eclipses between 1932 and 2002 with the solar magnetic source flux reveals that changes in the solar EUV and X-ray flux lag the open source flux measurements by approximately 1.5 years. We suggest that this unexpected result comes about from changes to the relative size of the limb corona between eclipses, with the lag representing the time taken to populate the coronal field with plasma hot enough to emit the EUV and X-rays ionising our atmosphere.

The ocean's gravitational potential energy budget in a coupled climate model

This study examines, in a unified fashion, the budgets of ocean gravitational potential energy (GPE) and available gravitational potential energy (AGPE) in the control simulation of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Only AGPE can be converted into kinetic energy by adiabatic processes. Diapycnal mixing supplies GPE, but not AGPE, whereas the reverse is true of the combined effect of surface buoyancy forcing and convection. Mixing and buoyancy forcing, thus, play complementary roles in sustaining the large scale circulation. However, the largest globally integrated source of GPE is resolved advection (+0.57 TW) and the largest sink is through parameterized eddy transports (-0.82 TW). The effect of these adiabatic processes on AGPE is identical to their effect on GPE, except for perturbations to both budgets due to numerical leakage exacerbated by non-linearities in the equation of state.

Subsurface urban heat island and its effects on horizontal ground-source heat pump potential under climate change

Recent urban air temperature increase is attributable to the climate change and heat island effects due to urbanization. This combined effects of urbanization and global warming can penetrate into the underground and elevate the subsurface temperature. In the present study, over-100 years measurements of subsurface temperature at a remote rural site were analysed, and an increasing rate of 0.17⁰C per decade at soil depth of 30cm due to climate change was identified in the UK, but the subsurface warming in an urban site showed a much higher rate of 0.85⁰C per decade at a 30cm depth and 1.18⁰C per decade at 100cm. The subsurface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity obtained at the paired urban-rural stations in London showed an unique 'U-shape', i.e. lowest in summer and highest during winter. The maximum SUHII is 3.5⁰C at 6:00 AM in December, and the minimum UHII is 0.2⁰C at 18:00PM in July. Finally, the effects of SUHI on the energy efficiency of the horizontal ground source heat pump (GSHP) were determined. Provided the same heat pump used, the installation at an urban site will maintain an overall higher COP compared with that at a rural site in all seasons, but the highest COP improvement can be achieved in winter.

Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change.

21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability.