A radar-based rainfall climatology of Great Britain and Ireland

The Met Office 1km radar-derived precipitation-rate composite over 8 years (2006–2013) is examined to evaluate whether it provides an accurate representation of annual-average precipitation over Great Britain and Ireland over long periods of time. The annual-average precipitation from the radar composite is comparable with gauge measurements, with an average error of +23mmyr−1 over Great Britain and Ireland, +29mmyr−1 (3%) over the United Kingdom and –781mmyr−1 (46%) over the Republic of Ireland. The radar-derived precipitation composite is useful over the United Kingdom including Northern Ireland, but not accurate over the Republic of Ireland, particularly in the south.

The sources of phosphorus in the waters of Great Britain

Total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads to watercourses of the River Basin Districts (RBDs) of Great Britain (GB) were estimated using inventories of industrial P loads and estimates of P loads from sewage treatment works and diffuse P loads calculated using region-specific export coefficients for particular land cover classes combined with census data for agricultural stocking densities and human populations. The TP load to GB waters was estimated to be 60 kt yr(-1), of which households contributed 73, agriculture contributed 20, industry contributed 3, and 4 came from background sources. The SRP load to GB waters was estimated to be 47 kt yr(-1), of which households contributed 78, agriculture contributed 13, industry contributed 4, and 6 came from background Sources. The 'average' area-normalized TP and SRP loads to GB waters approximated 2.4 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) and 1.8 kg ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. A consideration of uncertainties in the data contributing to these estimates suggested that the TP load to GB waters might lie between 33 and 68 kt yr(-1), with agriculture contributing between 10 and 28 of the TP load. These estimates are consistent with recent appraisals of annual TP and SRP loads to GB coastal waters and area-normalized TP loads from their catchments. Estimates of the contributions of RBDs to these P loads were consistent with the geographical distribution of P concentrations in GB rivers and recent assessments of surface waters at risk from P Pollution.

An aggregated wind power generation model based on MERRA reanalysis data: MATLAB model and example data for the April 2014 wind farm distribution of Great Britain.

The MATLAB model is contained within the compressed folders (versions are available as .zip and .tgz). This model uses MERRA reanalysis data (>34 years available) to estimate the hourly aggregated wind power generation for a predefined (fixed) distribution of wind farms. A ready made example is included for the wind farm distribution of Great Britain, April 2014 ("CF.dat"). This consists of an hourly time series of GB-total capacity factor spanning the period 1980-2013 inclusive. Given the global nature of reanalysis data, the model can be applied to any specified distribution of wind farms in any region of the world. Users are, however, strongly advised to bear in mind the limitations of reanalysis data when using this model/data. This is discussed in our paper: Cannon, Brayshaw, Methven, Coker, Lenaghan. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain". Submitted to Renewable Energy in March, 2014. Additional information about the model is contained in the model code itself, in the accompanying ReadMe file, and on our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/

Consumption of welfare-friendly food products in Great Britain, Italy and Sweden, and how it may be influenced by consumer attitudes to, and behaviour towards, animal welfare attributes

The interest in animal welfare and welfare-friendly food products has been increasing in Europe over the last 10 years. The media, highlighting traditional farming methods and food scares such as those related to salmonella, bovine spongiform encephalopathy/variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (BSE) and avian influenza, have brought the methods of animal farming to public attention. Concerns about farm animal welfare are reflected in the increase in the number of vegetarians and vegans and an increase in consumers wishing to purchase food which is more animal welfare-friendly. This paper considers consumers’ attitudes to animal welfare and to marketing practices, such as product labelling, welfare grading systems and food assurance marks using comparative data collected in a survey of around 1500 consumers in each of Great Britain, Italy and Sweden as part of the EU-funded Welfare Quality research project. The findings suggest a need for the provision of improved consumer information on the welfare provenance of food using appropriate product labelling and other methods.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Identifying antimicrobial resistance genes of human clinical relevance within Salmonella isolated from food animals in Great Britain

To investigate the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance genes of human clinical relevance in Salmonella isolated from livestock in Great Britain. Two hundred and twenty-five Salmonella enterica isolates were characterized using an antimicrobial resistance gene chip and disc diffusion assays. Plasmid profiling, conjugation experiments and identification of Salmonella genomic island 1 (SGI1) were performed for selected isolates. Approximately 43% of Salmonella harboured single or multiple antimicrobial resistance genes with pig isolates showing the highest numbers where 96% of Salmonella Typhimurium harboured one or more resistance genes. Isolates harbouring multiple resistances divided into three groups. Group 1 isolates harboured ampicillin/streptomycin/sulphonamide/tetracycline resistance and similar phenotypes. This group contained isolates from pigs, cattle and poultry that were from several serovars including Typhimurium, 4,[5],12:i:-, Derby, Ohio and Indiana. All Group 2 isolates were from pigs and were Salmonella Typhimurium. They contained a non-sul-type class 1 integron and up to 13 transferrable resistances. All Group 3 isolates harboured a class 1 integron and were isolated from all animal species included in the study. Most isolates were Salmonella Typhimurium and harboured SGI1. Salmonella isolated from livestock was shown to harbour antimicrobial resistance genes although no or little resistance to third-generation cephalosporins or ciprofloxacin, respectively, was detected. The preponderance in pigs of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium makes it important to introduce control measures such as improved biosecurity to ensure that they do not pass through the food chain and limit human therapeutic options.

A high prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli isolated from pigs and a low prevalence of antimicrobial resistant E-coli from cattle and sheep in Great Britain at slaughter

The incidence of antimicrobial resistance and expressed and unexpressed resistance genes among commensal Escherichia coli isolated from healthy farm animals at slaughter in Great Britain was investigated. The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among the isolates varied according to the animal species; of 836 isolates from cattle tested only 5.7% were resistant to one or more antimicrobials, while only 3.0% of 836 isolates from sheep were resistant to one or more agents. However, 92.1% of 2480 isolates from pigs were resistant to at least one antimicrobial. Among isolates from pigs, resistance to some antimicrobials such as tetracycline (78.7%), sulphonamide (66.9%) and streptomycin (37.5%) was found to be common, but relatively rare to other agents such as amikacin (0.1%), ceftazidime ( 0.1%) and coamoxiclav (0.2%). The isolates had a diverse range of resistance gene profiles, with tet(B), sul2 and strAB identified most frequently. Seven out of 615 isolates investigated carried unexpressed resistance genes. One trimethoprim-susceptible isolate carried a complete dfrA17 gene but lacked a promoter for it. However, in the remaining six streptomycin-susceptible isolates, one of which carried strAB while the others carried aadA, no mutations or deletions in gene or promoter sequences were identified to account for susceptibility. The data indicate that antimicrobial resistance in E. coli of animal origin is due to a broad range of acquired genes.

Bridging the two cultures. Commercial archaeology and the study of prehistoric Britain

This paper was given at a meeting of the Society held on 12 January 2006 and it discusses the relationship between academic research and developer-funded archaeology in Britain today, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each. It considers the relationship between archaeological theory and practice and discusses the changing roles of academics, fieldworkers and managers. It argues that important issues need to be resolved, including the dissemination of information from recent archaeological fieldwork and the use of ‘grey literature’ in informing more ambitious interpretations of the past.

The Palaeolithic Rivers of Southwest Britain

The Palaeolithic Rivers of Southwest Britain (PRoSWeB) project synthesises the archaeological evidence for the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic occupation of south-west Britain (c. 500,000 - 40,000 BP), with a principal focus upon the archaeological and geological potential of the region's Middle Pleistocene fluvial environments. South-west Britain was defined as the region west of the headwaters of the Rivers Frome and Piddle and south-west of the River Avon.

What is the new medicines use review ‘patient survey’ attempting to capture in the context of existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires and a new conceptual framework?

The community pharmacy service medicines use review (MUR) was introduced in 2005 ‘to improve patient knowledge, concordance and use of medicines’ through a private patient–pharmacist consultation. The MUR presents a fundamental change in community pharmacy service provision. While traditionally pharmacists are dispensers of medicines and providers of medicines advice, and patients as recipients, the MUR considers pharmacists providing consultation-type activities and patients as active participants. The MUR facilitates a two-way discussion about medicines use. Traditional patient–pharmacist behaviours transform into a new set of behaviours involving the booking of appointments, consultation processes and form completion, and the physical environment of the patient–pharmacist interaction moves from the traditional setting of the dispensary and medicines counter to a private consultation room. Thus, the new service challenges traditional identities and behaviours of the patient and the pharmacist as well as the environment in which the interaction takes place. In 2008, the UK government concluded there is at present too much emphasis on the quantity of MURs rather than on their quality.[1] A number of plans to remedy the perceived imbalance included a suggestion to reward ‘health outcomes’ achieved, with calls for a more focussed and scientific approach to the evaluation of pharmacy services using outcomes research. Specifically, the UK government set out the main principal research areas for the evaluation of pharmacy services to include ‘patient and public perceptions and satisfaction’as well as ‘impact on care and outcomes’. A limited number of ‘patient satisfaction with pharmacy services’ type questionnaires are available, of varying quality, measuring dimensions relating to pharmacists’ technical competence, behavioural impressions and general satisfaction. For example, an often cited paper by Larson[2] uses two factors to measure satisfaction, namely ‘friendly explanation’ and ‘managing therapy’; the factors are highly interrelated and the questions somewhat awkwardly phrased, but more importantly, we believe the questionnaire excludes some specific domains unique to the MUR. By conducting patient interviews with recent MUR recipients, we have been working to identify relevant concepts and develop a conceptual framework to inform item development for a Patient Reported Outcome Measure questionnaire bespoke to the MUR. We note with interest the recent launch of a multidisciplinary audit template by the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (RPSGB) in an attempt to review the effectiveness of MURs and improve their quality.[3] This template includes an MUR ‘patient survey’. We will discuss this ‘patient survey’ in light of our work and existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires, outlining a new conceptual framework as a basis for measuring patient satisfaction with the MUR. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the NHS Surrey Research Ethics Committee on 2 June 2008. References 1. Department of Health (2008). Pharmacy in England: Building on Strengths – Delivering the Future. London: HMSO. www. official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm73/7341/7341.pdf (accessed 29 September 2009). 2. Larson LN et al. Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care: update of a validated instrument. JAmPharmAssoc 2002; 42: 44–50. 3. Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (2009). Pharmacy Medicines Use Review – Patient Audit. London: RPSGB. http:// qi4pd.org.uk/index.php/Medicines-Use-Review-Patient-Audit. html (accessed 29 September 2009).