Final warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in high- and low-top CMIP5 models

The final warming date of the polar vortex is a key component of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric and tropospheric variability in spring and summer. We examine the effect of external forcings on Southern Hemisphere final warming date, and the sensitivity of any projected changes to model representation of the stratosphere. Final warming date is calculated using a temperature-based diagnostic for ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models, under the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. The final warming date in the models is generally too late in comparison with those from reanalyses: around two weeks too late in the low-top ensemble, and around one week too late in the high-top ensemble. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used to analyse past and future change in final warming date. Both the low- and high-top ensemble show characteristic behaviour expected in response to changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations. In both ensembles, under both scenarios, an increase in final warming date is seen between 1850 and 2100, with the latest dates occurring in the early twenty-first century, associated with the minimum in stratospheric ozone concentrations in this period. However, this response is more pronounced in the high-top ensemble. The high-top models show a delay in final warming date in RCP8.5 that is not produced by the low-top models, which are shown to be less responsive to greenhouse gas forcing. This suggests that it may be necessary to use stratosphere resolving models to accurately predict Southern Hemisphere surface climate change.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Loss potentials associated with European windstorms under future climate conditions

Possible changes in the frequency and intensity of windstorms under future climate conditions during the 21st century are investigated based on an ECHAM5 GCM multi-scenario ensemble. The intensity of a storm is quantified by the associated estimated loss derived with using an empirical model. The geographical focus is ‘Core Europe’, which comprises countries of Western Europe. Possible changes of losses are analysed by comparing ECHAM5 GCM data for recent (20C, 1960 to 2000) and future climate conditions (B1, A1B, A2; 2060 to 2100), each with 3 ensemble members. Changes are quantified using both rank statistics and return periods (RP) estimated by fitting an extreme value distribution using the peak over threshold method to potential storm losses. The estimated losses for ECHAM5 20C and reanalysis events show similar statistical features in terms of return periods. Under future climate conditions, all climate scenarios show an increase in both frequency and magnitude of potential losses caused by windstorms for Core Europe. Future losses that are double the highest ECHAM5 20C loss are identified for some countries. While positive changes of ranking are significant for many countries and multiple scenarios, significantly shorter RPs are mostly found under the A2 scenario for return levels correspondent to 20 yr losses or less. The emergence time of the statistically significant changes in loss varies from 2027 to 2100. These results imply an increased risk of occurrence of windstorm-associated losses, which can be largely attributed to changes in the meteorological severity of the events. Additionally, factors such as changes in the cyclone paths and in the location of the wind signatures relative to highly populated areas are also important to explain the changes in estimated losses.

Enhancing consumer liking of low salt tomato soup over repeated exposure by herb and spice seasonings

There is strong evidence for the link between high dietary sodium and increased risk of cardiovascular disease which drives the need to reduce salt content in foods. In this study, herb and spice blends were used to enhance consumer acceptability of a low salt tomato soup (0.26% w/w). Subjects (n=148) scored their liking of tomato soup samples over five consecutive days. The first and last days were pre-and post-exposure visits where all participants rated three tomato soup samples; standard, low salt and low salt with added herbs and spices. The middle 3 days were the repeated exposure phase where participants were divided into three balanced groups; consuming the standard soup, the low salt soup, or the low salt soup with added herbs and spices. Reducing salt in the tomato soup led to a significant decline in consumer acceptability, and incorporating herbs and spices did not lead to an immediate enhancement in liking. However, inclusion of herbs and spices enhanced the perception of the salty taste of the low salt soup to the same level as the standard. Repeated exposure to the herbs and spice-modified soup led to a significant increase in the overall liking and liking of flavour, texture and aftertaste of the soup, whereas no changes in liking were observed for the standard and low salt tomato soups over repeated exposure. Moreover, a positive trend in increasing the post-exposure liking of the herbs and spices soup was observed. The findings suggest that the use of herbs and spices is a useful approach to reduce salt content in foods; however, herbs and spices should be chosen carefully to complement the food as large contrasts in flavour can polarise consumer liking.

Atypical processing of voice sounds in infants at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a reduced sensitivity (degree of selective response) to social stimuli such as human voices. In order to determine whether this reduced sensitivity is a consequence of years of poor social interaction and communication or is present prior to significant experience, we used functional MRI to examine cortical sensitivity to auditory stimuli in infants at high familial risk for later emerging ASD (HR group, N = 15), and compared this to infants with no family history of ASD (LR group, N = 18). The infants (aged between 4 and 7 months) were presented with voice and environmental sounds while asleep in the scanner and their behaviour was also examined in the context of observed parent-infant interaction. Whereas LR infants showed early specialisation for human voice processing in right temporal and medial frontal regions, the HR infants did not. Similarly, LR infants showed stronger sensitivity than HR infants to sad vocalisations in the right fusiform gyrus and left hippocampus. Also, in the HR group only, there was an association between each infant's degree of engagement during social interaction and the degree of voice sensitivity in key cortical regions. These results suggest that at least some infants at high-risk for ASD have atypical neural responses to human voice with and without emotional valence. Further exploration of the relationship between behaviour during social interaction and voice processing may help better understand the mechanisms that lead to different outcomes in at risk populations.

An Ensemble Kalman Smoother for Nonlinear Dynamics

It is for mally proved that the general smoother for nonlinear dynamics can be for mulated as a sequential method, that is, obser vations can be assimilated sequentially during a for ward integration. The general filter can be derived from the smoother and it is shown that the general smoother and filter solutions at the final time become identical, as is expected from linear theor y. Then, a new smoother algorithm based on ensemble statistics is presented and examined in an example with the Lorenz equations. The new smoother can be computed as a sequential algorithm using only for ward-in-time model integrations. It bears a strong resemblance with the ensemble Kalman filter . The difference is that ever y time a new dataset is available during the for ward integration, an analysis is computed for all previous times up to this time. Thus, the first guess for the smoother is the ensemble Kalman filter solution, and the smoother estimate provides an improvement of this, as one would expect a smoother to do. The method is demonstrated in this paper in an intercomparison with the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble smoother introduced by van Leeuwen and Evensen, and it is shown to be superior in an application with the Lorenz equations. Finally , a discussion is given regarding the properties of the analysis schemes when strongly non-Gaussian distributions are used. It is shown that in these cases more sophisticated analysis schemes based on Bayesian statistics must be used.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

Influence of mutations affecting gonadotropin production or responsiveness on expression of inhibin subunit mRNA and protein in the mouse ovary

Measurement of inhibins A and B in the serum of normal cyclic rodents has implicated FSH in the regulation of these peptides within the ovary. To extend these observations we have used a panel of mutant mice carrying mutations which affect either the production of, or the ability to respond to, FSH and LH. As a consequence, the females are infertile and show different degrees of follicular development. The aim of this study was to measure inhibin gene transcription in the ovaries of these mutant females together with inhibin protein levels in ovaries and serum and to relate these to follicular development within the ovary. Comparison was made with a pool of normal/heterozygous females. In hpg females where lack of GnRH production results in the absence of gonadotropin synthesis, in FSHbeta knockout (FSHbetaKO) females where disruption of the gene encoding FSHbeta results in the absence of FSH production, and in FSH receptor knockout (FSHRKO) females which are unable to respond to circulating FSH, follicular development remains at the pre-antral stage in these three mutants. Only in the hpg females were common inhibin alpha subunit mRNA levels significantly lower than normal. In these three mutants, however, mRNA levels for both the betaA and betaB subunits were extremely low compared with normal mice. At the protein level, neither inhibin A nor B was detected in the serum of these three mutants; however inhibin B, albeit at very low levels, was detectable within the ovaries. These observations confirm a major role for FSH in the control of transcription of the RA and betaB genes but suggest that the constitutive transcription of the alpha subunit is less dependent on FSH. In contrast, in LH receptor knockout (LuRKO) female mice inhibin betaA subunit mRNA levels were similar to those measured in normal/heterozygous females but levels of inhibin alpha and betaB subunit mRNAs were significantly higher than in the normal group. This was reflected in significantly higher inhibin B protein levels in ovaries and serum. An inability to respond to LH combined with high circulating levels of FSH leads to a high proportion of antral follicles in LuRKO females, with granulosa cells constituting the major cell type within the ovary. The high percentage of antral granulosa cells is likely to account for the significantly higher levels of inhibin B production in these ovaries.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).

Effect of chymosin and salt reduction on the quality of ultrafiltrated white-salted cheese

This study demonstrated that both chymosin and salt-in-moisture (SM) were important factors for proteolysis in the manufacture of ultrafiltrated white-salted cheese, with significant effects on water-soluble nitrogen and nitrogen soluble in trichloroacetic acid. In contrast, the levels of free amino acids were not significantly affected by chymosin and salt treatments. The cheeses made using high levels of chymosin with low SM had lower levels of residual α(s1)- and β-casein at the end of ripening. On texture profile analysis, the hardness and fracturability of the cheeses significantly increased with SM and decreased during ripening. Increases in chymosin significantly contributed to the overall weakening of the structure throughout ripening. Bitter flavour was detected after 12 weeks in the cheese made with the higher chymosin level and lower SM, which could be the result of accumulation of γ-casein fractions. The sensory data indicated that the hedonic responses for low chymosin with low SM cheeses were good and acceptable in flavour, which may be due to the moderate levels of proteolysis products.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv (note the non-IUPAC adoption in this manuscript of pptv and ppbv, equivalent to pmol mol−1 and nmol mol−1 to reflect common practice). Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

Pil and Galia Kollectiv: solo exhibition at Te Tuhi Art Centre, Auckland, New Zealand.

The exhibition presents the full Future Trilogy which was completed in 2009. The trilogy is based on the opening of a new IKEA store in Edmonton, London in November 2005. IKEA celebrated with a twenty-four hour launch accompanied by significant price reductions on leather sofas. But when six thousand people arrived to compete for the discount a riot ensued which injured sixteen shoppers and required the store to be closed after just thirty minutes. The Future Trilogy takes this event as the starting point to speculate on a future where the popular fascination with modern designer furniture has morphed into state religions underpinned by the ideals of the early twentieth century avant-garde. The exhibition also presents their 2010 work Co-Operative Explanatory Capabilities in Organizational Design and Personnel Management which narrates a fictional story of a company that adopts highly experimental approaches to achieving worker productivity. The project investigates the place of creativity in efficiency management and the operation of bureaucratic systems in a post-industrial work environment. The Kollectiv's pseudo documentary creates a careful blend of fact and fiction through the combination of a distinctive BBC narrator's voice with imagery sourced from an online photographic archive for an early computing company. The story becomes increasingly provocative as more and more of the bizarre antics of the company employees are revealed, leading to the members of the company eventually forming a religious cult.

A novel bogie design made of glass fibre reinforced plastic

This paper presents a completely new design of a bogie-frame made of glass fibre reinforced composites and its performance under various loading conditions predicted by finite element analysis. The bogie consists of two frames, with one placed on top of the other, and two axle ties connecting the axles. Each frame consists of two side arms and a transom between. The top frame is thinner and more compliant and has a higher curvature compared with the bottom frame. Variable vertical stiffness can be achieved before and after the contact between the two frames at the central section of the bogie to cope with different load levels. Finite element analysis played a very important role in the design of this structure. Stiffness and stress levels of the full scale bogie presented in this paper under various loading conditions have been predicted by using Marc provided by MSC Software. In order to verify the finite element analysis (FEA) models, a fifth scale prototype of the bogie has been made and tested under quasi-static loading conditions. Results of testing on the fifth scale bogie have been used to fine tune details like contact and friction in the fifth scale FEA models. These conditions were then applied to the full scale models. Finite element analysis results show that the stress levels in all directions are low compared with material strengths.

A ferromagnetic methoxido-bridged Mn(III) dimer and a spin-canted metamagnetic μ1,3-azido-bridged chain

Two new Mn(III) complexes of formulas [MnL1(N-3)(OMe)](2) (1) and [MnL2(N-3)(2)](n) (2) have been synthesized by using two tridentate NNO-donor Schiff base ligands HL1{(2-[(3-methylaminoethylimino)-methyl]-phenol)} and HL2 {(2-[1-(2-dimethylaminoethylimino)methyl]-phenol)}, respectively. Substitution of the H atom on the secondary amine group of the N-methyldiamine fragment of the Schiff base by a methyl group leads to a drastic structural change from a methoxido-bridged dimer (1) to a single mu(1,3)-azido-bridged 1D helical polymer (2). Both complexes were characterized by single-crystal X-ray structural analyses and variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements. The magnetic properties of compound I show the presence of weak ferromagnetic exchange interactions mediated by double methoiddo bridges (J = 0.95 cm(-1)). Compound 2 shows the existence of a weak antiferromangetic coupling along the chain (J = -8.5 cm(-1)) through the single mu(1,3)-N-3 bridge with a spin canting that leads to a long-range antiferromagnetic order at T-c approximate to 9.3 K and a canting leading to a weak ferromagnetic long-range order at T-c approximate to 8.5 K. It also exibits metamagnetic behavior at low temperatures with a critical field of ca.1.2 T due to the weak antiferromagnetic interchain interactions that appear in the canted ordered phase.