Preparation of consistent soil data sets for modelling purposes: Secondary SOTER data for four case study areas

The common GIS-based approach to regional analyses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes is to define geographic layers for which unique sets of driving variables are derived, which include land use, climate, and soils. These GIS layers, with their associated attribute data, can then be fed into a range of empirical and dynamic models. Common methodologies for collating and formatting regional data sets on land use, climate, and soils were adopted for the project Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Changes at National Scale (GEFSOC). This permitted the development of a uniform protocol for handling the various input for the dynamic GEFSOC Modelling System. Consistent soil data sets for Amazon-Brazil, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, Jordan and Kenya, the case study areas considered in the GEFSOC project, were prepared using methodologies developed for the World Soils and Terrain Database (SOTER). The approach involved three main stages: (1) compiling new soil geographic and attribute data in SOTER format; (2) using expert estimates and common sense to fill selected gaps in the measured or primary data; (3) using a scheme of taxonomy-based pedotransfer rules and expert-rules to derive soil parameter estimates for similar soil units with missing soil analytical data. The most appropriate approach varied from country to country, depending largely on the overall accessibility and quality of the primary soil data available in the case study areas. The secondary SOTER data sets discussed here are appropriate for a wide range of environmental applications at national scale. These include agro-ecological zoning, land evaluation, modelling of soil C stocks and changes, and studies of soil vulnerability to pollution. Estimates of national-scale stocks of SOC, calculated using SOTER methods, are presented as a first example of database application. Independent estimates of SOC stocks are needed to evaluate the outcome of the GEFSOC Modelling System for current conditions of land use and climate. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030

Currently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil C stocks in the Brazilian Amazon. Such information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global C cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. The aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the GEFSOC soil carbon (C) modelling system. In order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean (Glycine max) and (iv) FAO predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. The land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data (SOTER database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed GEFSOC soil C modelling system. Results are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire Brazilian Amazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). Results include soil organic C (SOC) stocks and SOC stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the Century ecosystem model, (ii) the Rothamsted C model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scale. In addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. The results on regional SOC stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. The GEFSOC system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 Mha) such as the Brazilian Amazon. All of the methods used showed a decline in SOC stock for the period studied; Century and RothC simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. Values from Century and RothC (30,430 and 25,000 Tg for the 0-20 cm layer for the Brazilian Amazon region were higher than those obtained from the IPCC system (23,400 Tg in the 0-30 cm layer). Finally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Kenya between 1990 and 2030

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Non-Annex 1 countries such as Kenya are obliged to report green house gas (GHG) emissions from all sources where possible, including those from soils as a result of changes in land use or land management. At present, the convention encourages countries to estimate emissions using the most advanced methods possible, given the country circumstances and resources. Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes were made for Kenya using the Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. The tool conducts analysis using three methods: (1) the Century general ecosystem model; (2) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (3) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. The required datasets included: land use history, monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all the agro-climatic zones of Kenya and historical vegetation cover. Soil C stocks of 1.4-2.0 Pg (0-20 cm), compared well with a Soil and Terrain (SOTER) based approach that estimated similar to .8-2.0 Pg (0-30 cm). In 1990 48% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 20% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1), whereas in 2000 56% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 31% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1). Conversion of natural vegetation to annual crops led to the greatest soil C losses. Simulations suggest that soil C losses remain substantial throughout the modelling period of 1990-2030. All three methods involved in the GEFSOC System estimated that there would be a net loss of soil C between 2000 and 2030 in Kenya. The decline was more marked with RothC than with Century or the IPCC method. In non-hydric soils the SOC change rates were more pronounced in high sandy soils compared to high clay soils in most land use systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of two soil carbon models using two Kenyan long term experimental datasets

RothC and Century are two of the most widely used soil organic matter (SOM) models. However there are few examples of specific parameterisation of these models for environmental conditions in East Africa. The aim of this study was therefore, to evaluate the ability of RothC and the Century to estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) resulting from varying land use/management practices for the climate and soil conditions found in Kenya. The study used climate, soils and crop data from a long term experiment (1976-2001) carried out at The Kabete site at The Kenya National Agricultural Research Laboratories (NARL, located in a semi-humid region) and data from a 13 year experiment carried out in Machang'a (Embu District, located in a semi-arid region). The NARL experiment included various fertiliser (0, 60 and 120 kg of N and P2O5 ha(-1)), farmyard manure (FYM - 5 and 10 t ha(-1)) and plant residue treatments, in a variety of combinations. The Machang'a experiment involved a fertiliser (51 kg N ha(-1)) and a FYM (0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1)) treatment with both monocropping and intercropping. At Kabete both models showed a fair to good fit to measured data, although Century simulations for treatments with high levels of FYM were better than those without. At the Machang'a site with monocrops, both models showed a fair to good fit to measured data for all treatments. However, the fit of both models (especially RothC) to measured data for intercropping treatments at Machang'a was much poorer. Further model development for intercrop systems is recommended. Both models can be useful tools in soil C Predictions, provided time series of measured soil C and crop production data are available for validating model performance against local or regional agricultural crops. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Free atmospheric CO2 enrichment increased above ground biomass but did not affect symbiotic N2-fixation and soil carbon dynamics in a mixed deciduous stand in Wales

Through increases in net primary production (NPP), elevated CO2 is hypothesizes to increase the amount of plant litter entering the soil. The fate of this extra carbon on the forest floor or in mineral soil is currently not clear. Moreover, increased rates of NPP can be maintained only if forests can escape nitrogen limitation. In a Free atmospheric CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment near Bangor, Wales, 4 ambient CO2 and 4 FACE plots were planted with patches of Betula pendula, Alnus glutinosa and Fagus sylvatica on a former arable field. Four years after establishment, only a shallow L forest floor litter layer had formed due to intensive bioturbation. Total soil C and N contents increased irrespective of treatment and species as a result of afforestation. We could not detect an additional C sink in the soil, nor were soil C stabilization processes affected by FACE. We observed a decrease of leaf N content in Betula and Alnus under FACE, while the soil C/N ratio decreased regardless of CO2 treatment. The ratio of N taken up from the soil and by N2-fixation in Alnus was not affected by FACE. We infer that increased nitrogen use efficiency is the mechanism by which increased NPP is sustained under elevated CO2 at this site.

Drivers of increased soil respiration in a poplar coppice exposed to elevated CO2

Background and Aims. The response of soil respiration (SR) to elevated CO2 is driven by a number of processes and feedbacks. This work aims to i) detect the effect of elevated CO2 on soil respiration during the second rotation of a short rotation forest, at two levels of N availability; and ii) identify the main drivers behind any changes in soil respiration. Methods. A poplar plantation (POP-EUROFACE) was grown for two rotations of three years under elevated CO2 maintained by a FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) technique. Root biomass, litter production and soil respiration were followed for two consecutive years after coppice. Results. In the plantation, the stimulation of fine root and litter production under elevated CO2 observed at the beginning of the rotation declined over time. Soil respiration (SR) was continuously stimulated by elevated CO2, with a much larger enhancement during the growing (up to 111 %) than in the dormant season (40 %). The SR increase at first appeared to be due to the increase in fine root biomass, but at the end of the 2nd rotation was supported by litter decomposition and the availability of labile C. Soil respiration increase under elevated CO2 was not affected by N availability. Conclusions. The stimulation of SR by elevated CO2 was sustained by the decomposition of above and belowground litter and by the greater availability of easily decomposable substrates into the soil. C losses through SR were greater in the last year of the plantation due to a lack of effect of elevated CO2 on C allocation to roots, reducing the potential for C accumulation.

Soil management in relation to sustainable agriculture and ecosystem services

Requirements for research, practices and policies affecting soil management in relation to global food security are reviewed. Managing soil organic carbon (C) is central because soil organic matter influences numerous soil properties relevant to ecosystem functioning and crop growth. Even small changes in total C content can have disproportionately large impacts on key soil physical properties. Practices to encourage maintenance of soil C are important for ensuring sustainability of all soil functions. Soil is a major store of C within the biosphere – increases or decreases in this large stock can either mitigate or worsen climate change. Deforestation, conversion of grasslands to arable cropping and drainage of wetlands all cause emission of C; policies and international action to minimise these changes are urgently required. Sequestration of C in soil can contribute to climate change mitigation but the real impact of different options is often misunderstood. Some changes in management that are beneficial for soil C, increase emissions of nitrous oxide (a powerful greenhouse gas) thus cancelling the benefit. Research on soil physical processes and their interactions with roots can lead to improved and novel practices to improve crop access to water and nutrients. Increased understanding of root function has implications for selection and breeding of crops to maximise capture of water and nutrients. Roots are also a means of delivering natural plant-produced chemicals into soil with potentially beneficial impacts. These include biocontrol of soil-borne pests and diseases and inhibition of the nitrification process in soil (conversion of ammonium to nitrate) with possible benefits for improved nitrogen use efficiency and decreased nitrous oxide emission. The application of molecular methods to studies of soil organisms, and their interactions with roots, is providing new understanding of soil ecology and the basis for novel practical applications. Policy makers and those concerned with development of management approaches need to keep a watching brief on emerging possibilities from this fast-moving area of science. Nutrient management is a key challenge for global food production: there is an urgent need to increase nutrient availability to crops grown by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Many changes in practices including inter-cropping, inclusion of nitrogen-fixing crops, agroforestry and improved recycling have been clearly demonstrated to be beneficial: facilitating policies and practical strategies are needed to make these widely available, taking account of local economic and social conditions. In the longer term fertilizers will be essential for food security: policies and actions are needed to make these available and affordable to small farmers. In developed regions, and those developing rapidly such as China, strategies and policies to manage more precisely the necessarily large flows of nutrients in ways that minimise environmental damage are essential. A specific issue is to minimise emissions of nitrous oxide whilst ensuring sufficient nitrogen is available for adequate food production. Application of known strategies (through either regulation or education), technological developments, and continued research to improve understanding of basic processes will all play a part. Decreasing soil erosion is essential, both to maintain the soil resource and to minimise downstream damage such as sedimentation of rivers with adverse impacts on fisheries. Practical strategies are well known but often have financial implications for farmers. Examples of systems for paying one group of land users for ecosystem services affecting others exist in several parts of the world and serve as a model.

Soil food web properties explain ecosystem services across European land use systems

Intensive land use reduces the diversity and abundance of many soil biota, with consequences for the processes that they govern and the ecosystem services that these processes underpin. Relationships between soil biota and ecosystem processes have mostly been found in laboratory experiments and rarely are found in the field. Here, we quantified, across four countries of contrasting climatic and soil conditions in Europe, how differences in soil food web composition resulting from land use systems (intensive wheat rotation, extensive rotation, and permanent grassland) influence the functioning of soils and the ecosystem services that they deliver. Intensive wheat rotation consistently reduced the biomass of all components of the soil food web across all countries. Soil food web properties strongly and consistently predicted processes of C and N cycling across land use systems and geographic locations, and they were a better predictor of these processes than land use. Processes of carbon loss increased with soil food web properties that correlated with soil C content, such as earthworm biomass and fungal/bacterial energy channel ratio, and were greatest in permanent grassland. In contrast, processes of N cycling were explained by soil food web properties independent of land use, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and bacterial channel biomass. Our quantification of the contribution of soil organisms to processes of C and N cycling across land use systems and geographic locations shows that soil biota need to be included in C and N cycling models and highlights the need to map and conserve soil biodiversity across the world.

Simple measures of climate, soil properties and plant traits predict national scale grassland soil carbon stocks

1. Soil carbon (C) storage is a key ecosystem service. Soil C stocks play a vital role in soil fertility and climate regulation, but the factors that control these stocks at regional and national scales are unknown, particularly when their composition and stability are considered. As a result, their mapping relies on either unreliable proxy measures or laborious direct measurements. 2. Using data from an extensive national survey of English grasslands we show that surface soil (0-7cm) C stocks in size fractions of varying stability can be predicted at both regional and national scales from plant traits and simple measures of soil and climatic conditions. 3. Soil C stocks in the largest pool, of intermediate particle size (50-250 µm), were best explained by mean annual temperature (MAT), soil pH and soil moisture content. The second largest C pool, highly stable physically and biochemically protected particles (0.45-50 µm), was explained by soil pH and the community abundance weighted mean (CWM) leaf nitrogen (N) content, with the highest soil C stocks under N rich vegetation. The C stock in the small active fraction (250-4000 µm) was explained by a wide range of variables: MAT, mean annual precipitation, mean growing season length, soil pH and CWM specific leaf area; stocks were higher under vegetation with thick and/or dense leaves. 4. Testing the models describing these fractions against data from an independent English region indicated moderately strong correlation between predicted and actual values and no systematic bias, with the exception of the active fraction, for which predictions were inaccurate. 5. Synthesis and Applications: Validation indicates that readily available climate, soils and plant survey data can be effective in making local- to landscape-scale (1-100,000 km2) soil C stock predictions. Such predictions are a crucial component of effective management strategies to protect C stocks and enhance soil C sequestration.

Soil carbon and litter development along a reconstructed biodiverse forest chronosequence of South-Western Australia

Soil organic matter (SOM) increases with time as landscape is restored. Studying SOM development along restored forest chronosequences would be useful in clarifying some of the uncertainties in quantifying C turnover rates with respect to forest clearance and ensuing restoration. The development of soil organic matter in the mineral soils was studied at four depths in a 16-year-old restored jarrah forest chronosequence. The size-separated SOM fractionation along with δ13C isotopic shift was utilised to resolve the soil C temporal and spatial changes with developing vegetation. The restored forest chronosequence revealed several important insights into how soil C is developing with age. Litter accumulation outpaced the native forest levels in 12 years after restoration. The surface soils, in general, showed increase in total C with age, but this trend was not clearly observed at lower depths. C accumulation was observed with increasing restoration age in all three SOM size-fractions in the surface 0–2 cm depth. These biodiverse forests show a trend towards accumulating C in recalcitrant stable forms, but only in the surface 0–2 cm mineral soil. A significant reverse trend was observed for the moderately labile SOM fraction for lower depths with increasing restoration age. Correlating the soil δ13C with total C concentration revealed the re-establishment of the isotopically depleted labile to enriched refractory C continuum with soil depth for the older restored sites. This implied that from a pedogenic perspective, the restored soils are developing towards the original native soil carbon profile.

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of time and mode of depuration on tissue copper concentrations of the earthworms Eisenia andrei, Lumbricus rubellus and Lumbricus terrestris

Eisenia andrei, Lumbricus rubellus and Lumbricus terrestris were exposed to 250, 250 and 350 mg kg(-1) Cu respectively in Cu(NO3)(2(aq)) amended soil for 28 d. Earthworms were then depurated for 24 to 72 h, digested and analysed for Cu and Ti or, subsequent to depuration were dissected to remove any remaining soil particles from the alimentary canal and then digested and analysed. This latter treatment proved impossible for E. andrei due to its small size. Regardless of depuration time, soil particles were retained in the alimentary canal of L. rubellus and L. terrestris. Tissue concentration determinations indicate that E. andrei should be depurated for 24 h, L. rubellus for 48 h and L. terrestris should be dissected. Ti was bioaccumulated and therefore could not be used as an inert tracer to determine mass of retained soil. Calculations indicate that after 28 d earthworms were still absorbing Cu from soil. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contributions of matric and osmotic potentials to the unfrozen water content of frozen soils

Recent reports show that biogeochemical processes continue when the soil is frozen, but are limited by water availability. However, there is little knowledge about the interactive effects of soil and environmental variables on amounts of unfrozen water in frozen soils. The aims of this study were to determine the contributions of matric and osmotic potentials to the unfrozen water content of frozen soil. We determined the effects of matric and osmotic potential on unfrozen water contents of frozen mineral soil fractions (ranging from coarse sand to fine silt) at -7 degrees C, and estimated the contributions of these potentials to liquid water contents in samples from organic surface layers of boreal soils frozen at -4 degrees C. In the mineral soil fractions the unfrozen water contents appeared to be governed solely by the osmotic potential, but in the humus layers of the sampled boreal soils both the osmotic and matric potentials control unfrozen water content, with osmotic potential contributing 20 to 69% of the total water potential. We also determined pore size equivalents, where unfrozen water resides at -4 degrees C, and found a strong correlation between these equivalents and microbial CO2 production. The larger the pores in which the unfrozen water is found the larger the microbial activity that can be sustained. The osmotic potential may therefore be a key determinant of unfrozen water and carbon dynamics in frozen soil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover

A new model, RothPC-1, is described for the turnover of organic C in the top metre of soil. RothPC-1 is a version of RothC-26.3, an earlier model for the turnover of C in topsoils. In RothPC-1 two extra parameters are used to model turnover in the top metre of soil: one, p, which moves organic C down the profile by an advective process, and the other, s, which slows decomposition with depth. RothPC-1 is parameterized and tested using measurements (described in Part 1, this issue) of total organic C and radiocarbon on soil profiles from the Rothamsted long-term field experiments, collected over a period of more than 100 years. RothPC-1 gives fits to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon in the 0-23, 23-46, 46-69 and 69-92 cm layers of soil that are almost all within (or close to) measurement error in two areas of regenerating woodland (Geescroft and Broadbalk Wildernesses) and an area of cultivated land from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment. The fits to old grassland (the Park Grass Experiment) are less close. Two other sites that provide the requisite pre- and post-bomb data are also fitted; a prairie Chernozem from Russia and an annual grassland from California. Roth-PC-1 gives a close fit to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon down the Chernozem profile, provided that allowance is made for soil age; with the annual grassland the fit is acceptable in the upper part of the profile, but not in the clay-rich Bt horizon below. Calculations suggest that treating the top metre of soil as a homogeneous unit will greatly overestimate the effects of global warming in accelerating the decomposition of soil C and hence on the enhanced release of CO2 from soil organic matter; more realistic estimates will be obtained from multi-layer models such as RothPC-1.