Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions.

Differentiating core and co-opted mechanisms in calculation: The neuroimaging of calculation in aphasia

The role of language in exact calculation is the subject of debate. Some behavioral and functional neuroimaging investigations of healthy participants suggest that calculation requires language resources. However, there are also reports of individuals with severe aphasic language impairment who retain calculation ability. One possibility in resolving these discordant findings is that the neural basis of calculation has undergone significant reorganization in aphasic calculators. Using fMRI, we examined brain activations associated with exact addition and subtraction in two patients with severe agrammatic aphasia and retained calculation ability. Behavior and brain activations during two-digit addition and subtraction were compared to those of a group of 11 healthy, age-matched controls. Behavioral results confirmed that both patients retained calculation ability. Imaging findings revealed individual differences in processing, but also a similar activation pattern across patients and controls in bilateral parietal cortices. Patients differed from controls in small areas of increased activation in peri-lesional regions, a shift from left fronto-temporal activation to the contralateral region, and increased activations in bilateral superior parietal regions. Our results suggest that bilateral parietal cortex represents the core of the calculation network and, while healthy controls may recruit language resources to support calculation, these mechanisms are not mandatory in adult cognition.

Use of simulated intestinal fluids with Caco-2 cells and rat ileum

In most in vitro studies of oral drug permeability, little attempt is made to reproduce the gastrointestinal lumenal environment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the compatibility of simulated intestinal fluid (SIF) solutions with Caco-2 cell monolayers and Ussing chamber-mounted rat ileum under standard permeability experiment protocols. In preliminary experiments, fasted-state simulated intestinal fluid (FaSSIF) and fed-state simulated intestinal fluid (FeSSIF) solutions based on the dissolution medium formulae of Dressman and co-workers (1998) were modified for compatibility with Caco-2 cells to produce FaS-SIF and FeSSIF "transport" solutions for use with in vitro permeability models. For Caco-2 cells exposed to FaSSIF and FESSIF transport solutions, the transepithelial electrical resistance was maintained for over 4 h and mannitol permeability was equivalent to that in control (Hank's Balanced Salt Solution-treated) cell layers. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that microvilli generally maintained a normal distribution, although some shortening of microvilli and occasional small areas of denudation were observed. For rat ileum in the Ussing chambers, the potential difference (PD) collapsed to zero over 120 min when exposed to the FaSSIF transport solution and an even faster collapse of the PD was observed when the FeSSIF transport solution was used. Electron micrographs revealed erosion of the villi tips and substantial denudation of the microvilli after exposure of ileal tissue to FaSSIF and FeSSIF solutions, and permeability to mannitol was increased by almost two-fold. This study indicated that FaSSIF and FeSSIF transport solutions can be used with Caco-2 monolayers to evaluate drug permeability, but rat ileum in Ussing chambers is adversely affected by these solutions. Metoprolol permeability in Caco-2 experiments was reduced by 33% using the FaSSIF and 75% using the FeSSIF compared to permeability measured using HBSS. This illustrates that using physiological solutions can influence permeability measurements.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Managing artisanal and small-scale mining in forest areas: perspectives from a poststructural political ecology

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is an activity intimately associated with social deprivation and environmental degradation, including deforestation. This paper examines ASM and deforestation using a broadly poststructural political ecology framework. Hegemonic discourses are shown to consistently influence policy direction, particularly in emerging approaches such as Corporate Social Responsibility and the Forest Stewardship Council. A review of alternative discourses reveals that the poststructural method is useful for critiquing the international policy arena but does not inform new approaches. Synthesis of the analysis leads to conclusions that echo a growing body of literature advocating for policies to become increasingly sensitive to local contexts, synergistic between actors at difference scales, and to be integrated across sectors.

Changes in area and geodetic mass balance of small glaciers, polar Urals, Russia, 1950-2008

Changes in area of 30 small glaciers (mostly <1 km2) in the northern Polar Urals (67.5-68.25 °N) between 1953 and 2000 were assessed using historic aerial photography from 1953 and 1960, ASTER and panchromatic Landsat ETM+ imagery from 2000, and data from 1981 and 2008 terrestrial surveys. Changes in volume and geodetic mass balance of IGAN and Obruchev glaciers were calculated using data from terrestrial surveys in 1963 and 2008. In total, glacier area declined by 22.3 ± 3.9% in the 1953/60-2000 period. The areas of individual glaciers decreased by 4-46%. Surfaces of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers lowered by 22.5 ± 1.7 m and 14.9 ± 2.1 m. Over 45 years, geodetic mass balances of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers were -20.66 ± 2.91 and -13.54 ± 2.57 m w.e. respectively. Glacier shrinkage in the Polar Urals is related to a summer warming of 1 °C between 1953-81 and 1981-2008 and its rates are consistent with other regions of northern Asia but are higher than in Scandinavia. While glacier shrinkage intensified in the 1981-2000 period relative to 1953-81, increasing winter precipitation and shading effects slowed glacier wastage in 2000-08.

Emergence of a small-world functional network in cultured neurons

The functional networks of cultured neurons exhibit complex network properties similar to those found in vivo. Starting from random seeding, cultures undergo significant reorganization during the initial period in vitro, yet despite providing an ideal platform for observing developmental changes in neuronal connectivity, little is known about how a complex functional network evolves from isolated neurons. In the present study, evolution of functional connectivity was estimated from correlations of spontaneous activity. Network properties were quantified using complex measures from graph theory and used to compare cultures at different stages of development during the first 5 weeks in vitro. Networks obtained from young cultures (14 days in vitro) exhibited a random topology, which evolved to a small-world topology during maturation. The topology change was accompanied by an increased presence of highly connected areas (hubs) and network efficiency increased with age. The small-world topology balances integration of network areas with segregation of specialized processing units. The emergence of such network structure in cultured neurons, despite a lack of external input, points to complex intrinsic biological mechanisms. Moreover, the functional network of cultures at mature ages is efficient and highly suited to complex processing tasks.

The role of incentives for sustainable implementation of marine protected areas: an example from Tanzania

Although Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an increasingly popular policy tool for protecting marine stocks and biodiversity, they pose high costs for small-scale fisherfolk in poor countries. With Tanzania’s Mnazi Bay Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park as an example, we develop a spatial economic decision-modelling framework as a lens to examine fishers’ reactions to incentives created by an MPA. We argue that MPAs in poor countries can only contribute to sustainability if management induces changes in incentives to fish through a combination of enforcement (‘sticks’) and livelihood projects (‘carrots’). We emphasise practical implementation issues and implications for fostering marine ecosystem sustainability.

Understanding absorptive capacity in Malaysian small and medium sized (SME) construction companies

Purpose – The construction industry is a very important part of the Malaysian economy. The government's aim is to make the industry more productive, efficient and safe. Small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are at the core of the Malaysian construction industry and account for about 90 per cent of companies undertaking construction work. One of the main challenges faced by the Malaysian construction industry is the ability to absorb new knowledge and technology and to implement it in the construction phase. The purpose of this paper is to consider absorptive capacity in Malaysian construction SMEs in rural areas. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted in three stages: first, understanding the Malaysian construction industry; second, a literature review on the issues related to absorptive capacity and discussions with the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB); and third, multiple case studies in five construction SMEs operating in a rural area to validate the factors influencing absorptive capacity. Findings – Nine key factors were identified influencing absorptive capacity in Malaysian construction SMEs operating in rural areas. These factors involved: cost and affordability; availability and supply; demand; infrastructure; policies and regulations; labour readiness; workforce attitude and motivation; communication and sources of new knowledge and; culture. Originality/value – The key factors influencing absorptive capacity presented in this paper are based on validation from the case studies in five construction SMEs in Malaysia. The research focuses on how they operate in rural areas; however, the research results have wider application than just Malaysia. The key factors identified as influencing absorptive capacity can serve as a basis for considering knowledge absorption in the wider context by SMEs in other developing countries.

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering

Flooding is a particular hazard in urban areas worldwide due to the increased risks to life and property in these regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are often used to image flooding because of their all-weather day-night capability, and now possess sufficient resolution to image urban flooding. The flood extents extracted from the images may be used for flood relief management and improved urban flood inundation modelling. A difficulty with using SAR for urban flood detection is that, due to its side-looking nature, substantial areas of urban ground surface may not be visible to the SAR due to radar layover and shadow caused by buildings and taller vegetation. This paper investigates whether urban flooding can be detected in layover regions (where flooding may not normally be apparent) using double scattering between the (possibly flooded) ground surface and the walls of adjacent buildings. The method estimates double scattering strengths using a SAR image in conjunction with a high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) height map of the urban area. A SAR simulator is applied to the LiDAR data to generate maps of layover and shadow, and estimate the positions of double scattering curves in the SAR image. Observations of double scattering strengths were compared to the predictions from an electromagnetic scattering model, for both the case of a single image containing flooding, and a change detection case in which the flooded image was compared to an un-flooded image of the same area acquired with the same radar parameters. The method proved successful in detecting double scattering due to flooding in the single-image case, for which flooded double scattering curves were detected with 100% classification accuracy (albeit using a small sample set) and un-flooded curves with 91% classification accuracy. The same measures of success were achieved using change detection between flooded and un-flooded images. Depending on the particular flooding situation, the method could lead to improved detection of flooding in urban areas.

Stalagmite water content as a proxy for drip water supply in tropical and subtropical areas

In this pilot study water was extracted from samples of two Holocene stalagmites from Socotra Island, Yemen, and one Eemian stalagmite from southern continental Yemen. The amount of water extracted per unit mass of stalagmite rock, termed "water yield" hereafter, serves as a measure of its total water content. Based on direct correlation plots of water yields and δ18Ocalcite and on regime shift analyses, we demonstrate that for the studied stalagmites the water yield records vary systematically with the corresponding oxygen isotopic compositions of the calcite (δ18Ocalcite). Within each stalagmite lower δ18Ocalcite values are accompanied by lower water yields and vice versa. The δ18Ocalcite records of the studied stalagmites have previously been interpreted to predominantly reflect the amount of rainfall in the area; thus, water yields can be linked to drip water supply. Higher, and therefore more continuous drip water supply caused by higher rainfall rates, supports homogeneous deposition of calcite with low porosity and therefore a small fraction of water-filled inclusions, resulting in low water yields of the respective samples. A reduction of drip water supply fosters irregular growth of calcite with higher porosity, leading to an increase of the fraction of water-filled inclusions and thus higher water yields. The results are consistent with the literature on stalagmite growth and supported by optical inspection of thin sections of our samples. We propose that for a stalagmite from a dry tropical or subtropical area, its water yield record represents a novel paleo-climate proxy recording changes in drip water supply, which can in turn be interpreted in terms of associated rainfall rates.

Decentralising natural resource governance in Ghana: critical reflections on the artisanal and small-scale mining sector

This paper critically examines the impact of decentralization on contemporary and future governance arrangements in Ghana’s artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector. The sector, while providing valuable employment in rural areas, is beleaguered by environmental and social issues. Proponents of decentralization argue that re-distributing decision-making authority leads to more responsive, transparent and efficient natural resource management. The analysis presented here, however, demonstrates how weak decentralization has exacerbated the complex, conflictual and clandestine nature of local resource politics surrounding ASM. If future decentralization reforms are going to reverse this trend and improve the governance of ASM in Ghana, then facilitating the participation of traditional authorities is imperative. It is argued that doing so requires addressing the reticence regarding the role of chiefs in resource governance; simply ironing out existing technical issues with decentralization reforms is unlikely to improve the social and environmental performance of ASM in the country. In light of the chronic resource management deficiencies in Ghana, epitomized in the ASM sector, fostering frank political debates on resource governance is becoming urgent.

Action learning: how learning transfers from entrepreneurs to small firms

The paper presents research with small and medium enterprise (SME) owners who have participated in a leadership development programme. The primary focus of the paper is on learning transfer and factors affecting it, arguing that entrepreneurs must engage in ‘action’ in order to ‘learn’ and that under certain conditions they may transfer learning to their firm. The paper draws on data from 19 focus groups undertaken from 2010 to 2012, involving 51 participants in the LEAD Wales programme. It considers the literatures exploring learning transfer and develops a conceptual framework, outlining four areas of focus for entrepreneurial learning. Utilising thematic analysis, it describes and evaluates what (actual facts and information) and how (techniques, styles of learning) participants transfer and what actions they take to improve the business and develop their people. The paper illustrates the complex mechanisms involved in this process and concludes that action learning is a method of facilitating entrepreneurial learning which is able to help address some of the problems of engagement, relevance and value that have been highlighted previously. The paper concludes that the efficacy of an entrepreneurial learning intervention in SMEs may depend on the effectiveness of learning transfer.