Growth of the lava dome and extrusion rates at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies: 2005–2008

The third episode of lava dome growth at Soufrière Hills Volcano began 1 August 2005 and ended 20 April 2007. Volumes of the dome and talus produced were measured using a photo-based method with a calibrated camera for increased accuracy. The total dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume of extruded andesite magma (306 ± 51 Mm3) was similar within error to that produced in the earlier episodes but the average extrusion rate was 5.6 ± 0.9 m3s−1 (DRE), higher than the previous episodes. Extrusion rates varied in a pulsatory manner from <0.5 m3s−1 to ∼20 m3s−1. On 18 May 2006, the lava dome had reached a volume of 85 Mm3 DRE and it was removed in its entirety during a massive dome collapse on 20 May 2006. Extrusion began again almost immediately and built a dome of 170 Mm3 DRE with a summit height 1047 m above sea level by 4 April 2007. There were few moderate-sized dome collapses (1–10 Mm3) during this extrusive episode in contrast to the first episode of dome growth in 1995–8 when they were numerous. The first and third episodes of dome growth showed a similar pattern of low (<0.5 m3s−1) but increasing magma flux during the early stages, with steady high flux after extrusion of ∼25 Mm3

Clastic and core lava components of a silicic lava dome

The formation of a lava dome involves fractionation of the lava into core and clastic components. We show that for three separate, successive andesitic lava domes that grew at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, between 1999 and 2007, the volumetric proportion of the lava converted to talus or pyroclastic flow deposits was 50%–90% of the lava extruded. Currently, only 8% of the total magma extruded during the 1995–2007 eruption remains as core lava. The equivalent representation in the geological record will probably be even lower. Most of the lava extruded at the surface flowed no further than 150–300 m from the vent before disaggregation, resulting in a lava core whose shape tends to a cylinder. Moderate to high extrusion rates at the Soufrière Hills domes may have contributed to the large clastic fraction observed. Creating talus dissipates much of the energy that would otherwise be stored in the core lava of domes. The extreme hazards from large pyroclastic flows and blasts posed by wholesale collapse of a lava dome depend largely on the size of the lava core, and hence on the aggregate history of the partitioning process, not on the size of the dome.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part I: Dome shape and internal structure

Lava domes comprise core, carapace, and clastic talus components. They can grow endogenously by inflation of a core and/or exogenously with the extrusion of shear bounded lobes and whaleback lobes at the surface. Internal structure is paramount in determining the extent to which lava dome growth evolves stably, or conversely the propensity for collapse. The more core lava that exists within a dome, in both relative and absolute terms, the more explosive energy is available, both for large pyroclastic flows following collapse and in particular for lateral blast events following very rapid removal of lateral support to the dome. Knowledge of the location of the core lava within the dome is also relevant for hazard assessment purposes. A spreading toe, or lobe of core lava, over a talus substrate may be both relatively unstable and likely to accelerate to more violent activity during the early phases of a retrogressive collapse. Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat has been erupting since 1995 and has produced numerous lava domes that have undergone repeated collapse events. We consider one continuous dome growth period, from August 2005 to May 2006 that resulted in a dome collapse event on 20th May 2006. The collapse event lasted 3 h, removing the whole dome plus dome remnants from a previous growth period in an unusually violent and rapid collapse event. We use an axisymmetrical computational Finite Element Method model for the growth and evolution of a lava dome. Our model comprises evolving core, carapace and talus components based on axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth, which permits us to model the interface between talus and core. Despite explicitly only modelling axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth our core–talus model simulates many of the observed growth characteristics of the 2005–2006 SHV lava dome well. Further, it is possible for our simulations to replicate large-scale exogenous characteristics when a considerable volume of talus has accumulated around the lower flanks of the dome. Model results suggest that dome core can override talus within a growing dome, potentially generating a region of significant weakness and a potential locus for collapse initiation.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part II: Rockfall activity and talus deformation

During many lava dome-forming eruptions, persistent rockfalls and the concurrent development of a substantial talus apron around the foot of the dome are important aspects of the observed activity. An improved understanding of internal dome structure, including the shape and internal boundaries of the talus apron, is critical for determining when a lava dome is poised for a major collapse and how this collapse might ensue. We consider a period of lava dome growth at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 2005 to May 2006, during which a 100 × 106 m3 lava dome developed that culminated in a major dome-collapse event on 20 May 2006. We use an axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method model to simulate the growth and evolution of the lava dome, including the development of the talus apron. We first test the generic behaviour of this continuum model, which has core lava and carapace/talus components. Our model describes the generation rate of talus, including its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its post-generation deformation, which is important for an improved understanding of the internal configuration and structure of the dome. We then use our model to simulate the 2005 to 2006 Soufrière Hills dome growth using measured dome volumes and extrusion rates to drive the model and generate the evolving configuration of the dome core and carapace/talus domains. The evolution of the model is compared with the observed rockfall seismicity using event counts and seismic energy parameters, which are used here as a measure of rockfall intensity and hence a first-order proxy for volumes. The range of model-derived volume increments of talus aggraded to the talus slope per recorded rockfall event, approximately 3 × 103–13 × 103 m3 per rockfall, is high with respect to estimates based on observed events. From this, it is inferred that some of the volumetric growth of the talus apron (perhaps up to 60–70%) might have occurred in the form of aseismic deformation of the talus, forced by an internal, laterally spreading core. Talus apron growth by this mechanism has not previously been identified, and this suggests that the core, hosting hot gas-rich lava, could have a greater lateral extent than previously considered.

Cyclic extrusion of a lava dome based on a stick-slip mechanism

Lava dome eruptions are sometimes characterised by large periodic fluctuations in extrusion rate over periods of hours that may be accompanied by Vulcanian explosions and pyroclastic flows. We consider a simple system of nonlinear equations describing a 1D flow of lava extrusion through a deep elastic dyke feeding a shallower cylindrical conduit in order to simulate this short-period cyclicity. Stick-slip conditions depending on a critical shear stress are assumed at the wall boundary of the cylindrical conduit. By analogy with the behaviour of industrial polymers in a plastic extruder, the elastic dyke acts like a barrel and the shallower cylindrical portion of the conduit as a die for the flow of magma acting as a polymer. When we applied the model to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, for which the key parameters have been evaluated from previous studies, cyclic extrusions with periods from 3 to 30 h were readily simulated, matching observations. The model also reproduces the reduced period of cycles observed when a major unloading event occurs due to lava dome collapse.

Coupled subdaily and multiweek cycles during the lava dome erupt of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Observations of volcanoes extruding andesitic lava to produce lava domes often reveal cyclic behaviour. At Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, cycles with sub-daily and multi-week periods have been recognised on many occasions. These two types of cycle have been modelled separately as stick-slip magma flow at the junction between a dyke and an overlying cylindrical conduit (Costa et al. 2012), and as the filling and discharge of magma through the elastic-walled dyke (Costa et al., 2007a) respectively. Here, we couple these two models to simulate the behaviour over a period of well-observed multi-week cycles, with accompanying sub-daily cycles, from 13 May to 21 September 1997. The coupled model captures well the asymmetrical first-order behaviour: the first 40% of the multi-week cycle consists of high rates of lava extrusion during short period/high amplitude sub-daily cycles as the dyke reservoir discharges itself. The remainder of the cycle involves increasing pressurization as more magma is stored, and extrusion rate falls, followed by a gradual increase in the period of the sub-daily cycles.

Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows from dome collapse

We present a method of simulating both the avalanche and surge components of pyroclastic flows generated by lava collapsing from a growing Pelean dome. This is used to successfully model the pyroclastic flows generated on 12 May 1996 by the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. In simulating the avalanche component we use a simple 3-fold parameterisation of flow acceleration for which we choose values using an inverse method. The surge component is simulated by a 1D hydraulic balance of sedimentation of clasts and entrainment of air away from the avalanche source. We show how multiple simulations based on uncertainty of the starting conditions and parameters, specifically location and size (mass flux), could be used to map hazard zones.

A 2000-year annual record of snow accumulation rates for Law Dome, East Antarctica

Accurate high-resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to the mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the length of the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 years to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to 22 BCE. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long-term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power-law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods 380–442, 727–783 and 1970–2009 CE have above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663–704, 933–975 and 1429–1468 CE were below average, and decadal-scale snow accumulation anomalies were found to be relatively common (74 events in the 2035-year record). The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger-scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) frequencies.

The influence of viscous and latent heating on crystal-rich magma flow in a conduit

The flow dynamics of crystal-rich high-viscosity magma is likely to be strongly influenced by viscous and latent heat release. Viscous heating is observed to play an important role in the dynamics of fluids with temperature-dependent viscosities. The growth of microlite crystals and the accompanying release of latent heat should play a similar role in raising fluid temperatures. Earlier models of viscous heating in magmas have shown the potential for unstable (thermal runaway) flow as described by a Gruntfest number, using an Arrhenius temperature dependence for the viscosity, but have not considered crystal growth or latent heating. We present a theoretical model for magma flow in an axisymmetric conduit and consider both heating effects using Finite Element Method techniques. We consider a constant mass flux in a 1-D infinitesimal conduit segment with isothermal and adiabatic boundary conditions and Newtonian and non-Newtonian magma flow properties. We find that the growth of crystals acts to stabilize the flow field and make the magma less likely to experience a thermal runaway. The additional heating influences crystal growth and can counteract supercooling from degassing-induced crystallization and drive the residual melt composition back towards the liquidus temperature. We illustrate the models with results generated using parameters appropriate for the andesite lava dome-forming eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. These results emphasize the radial variability of the magma. Both viscous and latent heating effects are shown to be capable of playing a significant role in the eruption dynamics of Soufriere Hills Volcano. Latent heating is a factor in the top two kilometres of the conduit and may be responsible for relatively short-term (days) transients. Viscous heating is less restricted spatially, but because thermal runaway requires periods of hundreds of days to be achieved, the process is likely to be interrupted. Our models show that thermal evolution of the conduit walls could lead to an increase in the effective diameter of flow and an increase in flux at constant magma pressure.

Lava production at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: 1995-2009

[1] We estimate that about 1 km3 of andesitic lava has been produced at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 2009. There were three major episodes of extrusion, each lasting about 2 to 3.5 years and producing about 280 to 340 M m3 of lava, and one minor episode. Our estimates account for the dense rock equivalent volumetric contributions from the core and talus components of the lava dome, pyroclastic flow deposits and air-fall deposits. By 2005 at least two thirds of the erupted mass has already entered the sea. The average lava flux across the major extrusion episodes has been 3–5 m3s−1, with short-period (10–15 days) pulses up to 10–20 m3s−1. The first and third episodes of extrusion show similar flux histories suggesting similar behaviour of the system ten years apart. Waning flux towards the end of each episode may be caused by declining overpressure in the magma reservoir.

Ground deformation at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat during 1998-2000 measured by radar interferometry and GPS

We examine the motion of the ground surface on the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2000 using radar interferometry (InSAR). To minimise the effects of variable atmospheric water vapour on the InSAR measurements we use independently-derived measurements of the radar path delay from six continuous GPS receivers. The surfaces providing a measurable inter-ferometric signal are those on pyroclastic flow deposits, mainly emplaced in 1997. Three types of surface motion can be discriminated. Firstly, the surfaces of thick, valley-filling deposits subsided at rates of 150-120 mm/year in the year after emplacement to 50-30 mm/year two years later. This must be due to contraction and settling effects during cooling. The second type is the near-field motion localised within about one kilometre of the dome. Both subsidence and uplift events are seen and though the former could be due to surface gravitational effects, the latter may reflect shallow (< 1 km) pressurisation effects within the conduit/dome. Far-field motions of the surface away from the deeply buried valleys are interpreted as crustal strains. Because the flux of magma to the surface stopped from March 1998 to November 1999 and then resumed from November 1999 through 2000, we use InSAR data from these two periods to test the crustal strain behaviour of three models of magma supply: open, depleting and unbalanced. The InSAR observations of strain gradients of 75-80 mm/year/krn uplift during the period of quiescence on the western side of the volcano are consistent with an unbalanced model in which magma supply into a crustal magma chamber continues during quiescence, raising chamber pressure that is then released upon resumption of effusion. GPS motion vectors agree qualitatively with the InSAR displacements but are of smaller magnitude. The discrepancy may be due to inaccurate compensation for atmospheric delays in the InSAR data. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.