Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change

The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans. Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and Earth-system modelling of climate change.

Life-cycle simulations of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain

The life-cycle of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain on their development is investigated using the idealised version of the Met Office non-hydrostatic Unified Model which includes the same physics and dynamics as the operational forecast model. Frontal wave development occurs in two stages; first, a deformation strain is applied to a front and a positive potential vorticity (PV) strip forms, generated by latent heat release in the frontal updraft; second, as the deformation strain is reduced the PV strip breaks up into individual anomalies. The circulations associated with the PV anomalies cause shallow frontal waves to form. The structure of the simulated frontal waves is consistent with the conceptual model of a frontal cyclone. Deeper frontal waves are simulated if the stability of the atmosphere is reduced. Deformation strain rates of different strengths are applied to the PV strip to determine whether a deformation strain threshold exists above which frontal wave development is suppressed. An objective method of frontal wave activity is defined and frontal wave development was found to be suppressed by deformation strain rates $\ge 0.4\times10^{-5}\mbox{s}^{-1}$. This value compares well with observed deformation strain rate thresholds and the analytical solution for the minimum deformation strain rate needed to suppress barotropic frontal wave development. The deformation strain rate threshold is dependent on the strength of the PV strip with strong PV strips able to overcome stronger deformation strain rates (leading to frontal wave development) than weaker PV strips.

Analysis of convectively-generated gravity waves in mesoscale model simulations and wind profiler observations

The characteristics of convectively-generated gravity waves during an episode of deep convection near the coast of Wales are examined in both high resolution mesoscale simulations [with the (UK) Met Oce Unified Model] and in observations from a Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) wind profiling Doppler radar. Deep convection reached the tropopause and generated vertically propagating, high frequency waves in the lower stratosphere that produced vertical velocity perturbations O(1 m/s). Wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the characteristic periods and wavelengths of the waves. In both the simulations and observations, the wavelet spectra contain several distinct preferred scales indicated by multiple spectral peaks. The peaks are most pronounced in the horizontal spectra at several wavelengths less than 50 km. Although these peaks are most clear and of largest amplitude in the highest resolution simulations (with 1 km horizontal grid length), they are also evident in coarser simulations (with 4 km horizontal grid length). Peaks also exist in the vertical and temporal spectra (between approximately 2.5 and 4.5 km, and 10 to 30 minutes, respectively) with good agreement between simulation and observation. Two-dimensional (wavenumber-frequency) spectra demonstrate that each of the selected horizontal scales contains peaks at each of preferred temporal scales revealed by the one- dimensional spectra alone.

Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Nino Southern Oscillation case study

The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997–1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget data using simulations from a numerical weather prediction model: Methodology and data validation

We describe a new methodology for comparing satellite radiation budget data with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This is applied to data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on Meteosat-8. The methodology brings together, in near-real time, GERB broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes with simulations based on analyses produced by the Met Office global NWP model. Results for the period May 2003 to February 2005 illustrate the progressive improvements in the data products as various initial problems were resolved. In most areas the comparisons reveal systematic errors in the model's representation of surface properties and clouds, which are discussed elsewhere. However, for clear-sky regions over the oceans the model simulations are believed to be sufficiently accurate to allow the quality of the GERB fluxes themselves to be assessed and any changes in time of the performance of the instrument to be identified. Using model and radiosonde profiles of temperature and humidity as input to a single-column version of the model's radiation code, we conduct sensitivity experiments which provide estimates of the expected model errors over the ocean of about ±5–10 W m−2 in clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ±0.01 in clear-sky albedo. For the more recent data the differences between the observed and modeled OLR and albedo are well within these error estimates. The close agreement between the observed and modeled values, particularly for the most recent period, illustrates the value of the methodology. It also contributes to the validation of the GERB products and increases confidence in the quality of the data, prior to their release.

Coupled simulations of the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation using a fine-resolution mixed-layer ocean model

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Indian summer monsoon is dominated by a 30–50 day oscillation between “active” and “break” events of enhanced and reduced rainfall over the subcontinent, respectively. These organized convective events form in the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate north to India. Atmosphere–ocean coupled processes are thought to play a key role the intensity and propagation of these events. A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer-oceanmodel is assembled: HadKPP. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) and the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model. Following studies that upper-ocean vertical resolution and sub-diurnal coupling frequencies improve the simulation of ISV in SSTs, KPP is run at 1 m vertical resolution near the surface; the atmosphere and ocean are coupled every three hours. HadKPP accurately simulates the 30–50 day ISV in rainfall and SSTs over India and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, but suffers from low ISV on the equator. This is due to the HadAM3 convection scheme producing limited ISV in surface fluxes. HadKPP demonstrates little of the observed northward propagation of intraseasonal events, producing instead a standing oscillation. The lack of equatorial ISV in convection in HadAM3 constrains the ability of KPP to produce equatorial SST anomalies, which further weakens the ISV of convection. It is concluded that while atmosphere–ocean interactions are undoubtedly essential to an accurate simulation of ISV, they are not a panacea for model deficiencies. In regions where the atmospheric forcing is adequate, such as the Bay of Bengal, KPP produces SST anomalies that are comparable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) SST analyses in both their magnitude and their timing with respect to rainfall anomalies over India. HadKPP also displays a much-improved phase relationship between rainfall and SSTs over a HadAM3 ensemble forced by observed SSTs, when both are compared to observations. Coupling to mixed-layer models such as KPP has the potential to improve operational predictions of ISV, particularly when the persistence time of SST anomalies is shorter than the forecast lead time.